| name | alphagbm-polymarket |
| description | Integrates prediction market data (Polymarket) with options analysis to surface mispricing
signals between event probabilities and options-implied probabilities.
Triggers: "polymarket signals", "prediction market vs options", "event probability",
"rate cut odds", "election odds vs options", "polymarket arbitrage",
"implied probability mismatch", "prediction market data", "event-driven options"
|
| globs | ["mock-data/polymarket/**"] |
AlphaGBM Polymarket Integration
Bridges prediction markets and options markets -- when Polymarket says 70% chance of a rate cut but options imply 55%, that is a potential mispricing you can trade.
What This Skill Does
| Concept | Description |
|---|
| Event Probability | The prediction market's consensus probability for a specific event (e.g., rate cut, election outcome) |
| Options-Implied Probability | The probability the options market is pricing in, derived from option prices and skew |
| Probability Spread | The gap between prediction market and options-implied probabilities -- large spreads signal mispricing |
| Arbitrage Signal | When the spread exceeds a threshold, there may be a tradeable opportunity |
| Event Correlation | How strongly a binary event maps to specific options positions |
| Historical Accuracy | Track record of prediction markets vs options in forecasting similar past events |
How to Use
Input: An event type or query about prediction market vs options pricing.
Output:
- Event probability comparison table: Polymarket probability vs options-implied probability
- Probability spread and direction (which market is more bullish/bearish on the event)
- Mispricing signals ranked by confidence and spread size
- Suggested options trades to exploit the mispricing
- Historical accuracy comparison for similar past events
Example Queries:
polymarket signals — Scan for the largest probability mismatches right nowprediction market vs options rate cut — Compare Fed rate cut odds across marketsevent probability election — Election outcome probabilities vs options positioningrate cut odds — What prediction markets and options each imply about the next Fed meetingpolymarket arbitrage — Actionable mispricing opportunities
Mock Data
Mock data files are located in mock-data/polymarket/ and include:
rate-cut-comparison.json — Fed rate cut probabilities: Polymarket vs options-impliedevent-scan.json — Top mispricing signals across active prediction marketshistorical-accuracy.json — Past event forecasting accuracy by market type
API Endpoint
GET /api/analytics/polymarket/signals
GET /api/analytics/polymarket/event/{event_id}
Query parameters:
event_type (string) — Filter: "fed", "election", "earnings", "macro", "all"min_spread (float, default 0.10) — Minimum probability spread to surface (10%)include_trades (bool, default true) — Include suggested options trades
Response fields: events[], polymarket_prob, options_implied_prob, spread, confidence, suggested_trades[], historical_accuracy
Related Skills
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