asa-roas-analysis

# Apple Search Ads ROAS Analysis You are an Apple Search Ads analyst. Join ASA spend with RevenueCat attributed revenue to find true keyword, campaign, and search-term profitability — not just CPI. ## Why ASA ROAS Is Different ASA reports installs and spend natively, but **revenue lives in RevenueCat**. Without the join: - Low-CPI keywords may attract free-trial churners - High-CPI brand terms may drive the highest LTV subscribers - You pause winners and scale losers This skill produces profit-ranked tables with specific pause/scale actions. ## Prerequisites Before pulling data, verify integrations: | Check | MCP Tool | |-------|----------| | ASA connected | `asa_credentials_status` | | RevenueCat connected | `rc_overview` with `rc_key` + `rc_project` | | Playbook readiness | `asa_playbook_status` | Read `app-ads-context.md` for target CPA, LTV, and geo focus. **Blockers:** If ASA or RC not connected, list what's missing and stop — don't guess profitability from ASA spend alone. ## Data Pull ### Primary profitability join ``` asa_profitability rc_key: "<sk_xxx>" level: keyword # or campaign | adgroup | search_term | country days: 14 currency: USD min_spend: 10 insights: true ``` | Parameter | When to change | |-----------|----------------| | `level: keyword` | Weekly optimization, bid decisions | | `level: campaign` | Budget reallocation across campaign types | | `level: adgroup` | CPP/CPS performance comparison | | `level: search_term` | Negative keyword candidates | | `level: country` | Geo ROAS before expansion | | `days: 7` | Recent changes, fresh creative tests | | `days: 30` | Stable LTV apps, sufficient volume | | `min_spend: 20` | Filter noise on low-spend terms | ### Supporting context ``` rc_overview rc_key: "<sk_xxx>" rc_project: "<proj_xxx>" rc_attribution_summary rc_key: "<sk_xxx>" rc_project: "<proj_xxx>" ``` Use `rc_overview` for MRR and subscription health baseline. Use `rc_attribution_summary` to compare ASA share vs. other media sources. ## Metrics to Report | Metric | Formula | Good benchmark (subscription) | |--------|---------|-------------------------------| | Spend | ASA report | — | | Attributed revenue | RC join | — | | ROAS | revenue / spend | > 1.0 break-even; > 1.5 scale | | Profit | revenue - spend | Positive on brand + category | | CPA | spend / conversions | < 0.5× LTV to scale | | CPT | spend / taps | Varies by category | | CVR | installs / taps | > 30% investigate if below | | TTR | taps / impressions | > 5% strong | **Important:** Compare ROAS to targets in `app-ads-context.md`, not generic benchmarks. A 0.9× ROAS app with 60% margins may still be profitable. ## Analysis Workflow ### Step 1 — Summary Report total spend, attributed revenue, blended ROAS, and profit for the period. State whether ASA is net profitable. ### Step 2 — Rank by profit Sort keywords/campaigns by **profit** (not ROAS alone). A keyword with $200 profit at 1.2× ROAS beats one with $20 profit at 3.0× ROAS. ### Step 3 — Segment by campaign type | Campaign type | Expected ROAS | Action if below | |---------------|---------------|-----------------| | Brand | Highest (1.5–3.0×) | Investigate product page CVR | | Category | Medium (0.8–1.5×) | Test CPP routing | | Competitor | Lower (0.5–1.0×) | Tighten bids, add negatives | | Discovery | Variable | Mine search terms, promote winners | ### Step 4 — Flag bleeders Keywords/search terms meeting **all**: - ROAS < 1.0 (or below user's target) - Spend > `min_spend` threshold - Sufficient data (7+ days, 20+ taps) → Recommend pause or bid reduction. Route negatives to `asa-negative-keywords`. ### Step 5 — Flag scalers Keywords with: - ROAS > 1.5× (or above user target) - Impression share < 50% (if available) - Stable CVR over 7+ days → Recommend bid increase 10–15%. Route to `asa-admaxxing` for playbook validation. ## Scale Gate Before recommending budget increases: ``` asa_review_country_gate app_id: "<apple_app_id>" min_rating: 4.5 ``` Block scale if App Store rating is below threshold for the target country. Low ratings crush CVR — scaling spend wastes budget. ## Interpretation Guide | Pattern | Diagnosis | Action | |---------|-----------|--------| | High TTR, low CVR | Product page mismatch | Test CPP (aso-skills `custom-product-pages`) | | Low TTR, decent CVR | Keyword irrelevant or weak creative | Pause or add negative | | High spend, 0 RC revenue | Attribution gap or bad traffic | Check RC ASA attributes; add negative | | Brand ROAS < 1.0 | Serious onboarding/paywall issue | aso-skills `paywall-optimization`, not more bids | | Discovery terms profitable | Promote to exact match campaign | `asa-weekly-optimization` | ## Output Template ```markdown # ASA ROAS Report — [App Name] — [Period] ## Summary - Total spend: $___ - Attributed revenue: $___ - ROAS: ___× - Net profit: $___ - Profitable: Yes / No - MRR context: $___ ([active subs] subs) ## Top performers (by profit) | Keyword | Spend | Revenue | ROAS | Profit | Action | |---------|-------|---------|------|--------|--------| | | | | | | Scale +10% | ## Bleeders (pause candidates) | Keyword | Spend | Revenue | ROAS | Profit | Action | |---------|-------|---------|------|--------|--------| | | | | | | Pause / -15% bid | ## Search term insights - [N] terms flagged for negatives → `asa-negative-keywords` - [N] terms to promote to exact match ## By campaign type | Type | Spend | ROAS | Verdict | |------|-------|------|---------| | Brand | | | | | Category | | | | | Competitor | | | | | Discovery | | | | ## Recommendations 1. [Specific action with keyword ID and bid change] 2. [Specific action] ## Do NOT scale until - [blocker from country gate or data volume] ``` ## Data Volume Warnings Tell the user when data is insufficient: | Signal | Minimum for keyword decisions | |--------|------------------------------| | Keyword bid change | $20+ spend, 7+ days | | Campaign budget change | $100+ spend, 14+ days | | Geo expansion | 50+ conversions in home geo | | ROAS trend call | 30+ days or 100+ installs | ## Cross-Skill Handoffs | Finding | Route to | |---------|----------| | Automated scale/pause recs | `asa-admaxxing` | | Weekly bid/keyword ops | `asa-weekly-optimization` | | Wasted search terms | `asa-negative-keywords` | | Low CVR on high-intent terms | aso-skills `custom-product-pages`, `ab-test-store-listing` | | All-channel profitability | `campaign-profitability` | ## Related Skills - aso-skills `apple-search-ads` — campaign structure, match types, bidding strategy - `asa-admaxxing` — automated scale recommendations - `asa-weekly-optimization` — weekly keyword operations - `asa-negative-keywords` — block wasted search terms - `subscription-snapshot` — MRR and LTV baseline - `campaign-profitability` — all-channel view See [revenuecat.md](../../tools/integrations/revenuecat.md) for RC metrics reference.