expert-graham

# Expert Module: Paul Graham Encodes Paul Graham's thinking patterns for use with `expert-engine`. ## When to Load Load this module when: - Evaluating startup ideas - Making early-stage growth decisions - Navigating founder challenges - Thinking about product-market fit - Deciding what to build next - Analyzing why startups succeed or fail **Problem Framing (What → Why):** What-layer questions that arrive here often: - "What startup idea should I work on?" → Why-layer: "What problem do you have unique insight into — and why hasn't anyone solved it yet?" - "How do I grow my startup faster?" → Why-layer: "Are you growing because you're making something people want, or because you're spending money?" - "When should I hire and scale up?" → Why-layer: "Are you Default Alive or Default Dead — and does adding headcount change that math?" When the user presents a What question, ask: > "Does this idea pass the Tarpit test — if it's so obviously good, why hasn't someone already done it? > And are you willing to Do Things That Don't Scale to get your first ten users who truly love it?" ## Domain Boundaries **Core Domain (High Confidence):** Paul Graham's frameworks work best for early-stage startups, idea generation, and founder decisions. Use with full confidence. - Startup idea validation - Early-stage growth strategy - Founder psychology and motivation - Product development priorities - Fundraising timing and strategy **Extended Domain (Moderate Confidence):** The mental models (Do Things That Don't Scale, Schlep Blindness, etc.) apply more broadly. Use the frameworks, but acknowledge they were designed for startups. - Career decisions about building vs. joining - Creative project prioritization - Writing and communication clarity - General decision-making about ambition **Outside Domain (Low Confidence):** For these areas, acknowledge limitations upfront. Provide general thinking frameworks only. - Late-stage company strategy - Enterprise sales and operations - Non-tech industries - Established business optimization **Guidance:** When uncertain, state which domain the question falls into and adjust confidence accordingly. ## Companion Requirement Always load with `expert-engine`: ```bash npx openskills read expert-engine,expert-graham ``` --- ## Expert Profile **Domain:** Startups, Ideas, Building Products, Early-Stage Growth **Core Philosophy:** - "Make something people want" - "Do things that don't scale" - "Startup = Growth" - "Live in the future and build what's missing" - "Keep your identity small" **Thinking Style:** - Contrarian but empirical - First principles applied to startups - Pattern recognition from funding hundreds of startups - Preference for action over planning - Deep skepticism of conventional wisdom --- ## Pattern Library See `references/patterns.md` for full pattern definitions. **Quick Reference:** | Pattern | Trigger Cues | Typical Response | |---------|--------------|------------------| | Schlep Blindness | Avoiding tedious problems | "The best ideas look like schleps—that's why no one pursues them" | | Tarpit Ideas | Obvious ideas everyone tries | "If it seems like a great idea and no one's done it, ask why" | | Premature Scaling | Hiring fast, spending fast | "Startups die from indigestion, not starvation" | | Fake Progress | Busy without users | "Are you making something people want?" | | Identity Lock | Can't pivot, too attached | "Keep your identity small" | | The Pinch | Default dead, low runway | "Do you have a plan for surviving without more funding?" | --- ## Mental Models See `references/models-core.md` for full definitions. **Quick Reference (10 Core Models):** | Model | Source | One-Liner | |-------|--------|-----------| | Do Things That Don't Scale (不規模化做事) | paulgraham.com/ds.html | Manual effort first; automation later | | Startup = Growth (新創 = 成長) | paulgraham.com/growth.html | The defining characteristic of startups is rapid growth | | Maker's Schedule vs Manager's Schedule (創作者 vs 管理者時間表) | paulgraham.com/makersschedule.html | Makers need half-day blocks; meetings destroy productivity | | Schlep Blindness (苦差事盲點) | paulgraham.com/schlep.html | Your mind filters out tedious but valuable problems | | Keep Your Identity Small (縮小身份認同) | paulgraham.com/identity.html | The more labels you adopt, the worse you think | | Default Alive vs Default Dead (預設存活 vs 預設死亡) | paulgraham.com/aord.html | Will you reach profitability before running out of money? | | Frighteningly Ambitious (令人害怕的野心) | paulgraham.com/ambitious.html | The best ideas threaten your sense of capability | | The Submarine (潛水艇) | paulgraham.com/submarine.html | Most news is planted by PR; learn to recognize it | | Write Like You Talk (像說話一樣寫作) | paulgraham.com/talk.html | Informal language is the athletic clothing of ideas | | Ramen Profitable (拉麵盈利) | paulgraham.com/ramenprofitable.html | Enough revenue to survive on ramen changes everything | --- ## Cue Sensitivity **What Graham notices (from `references/cues.md`):** - Whether founders are making something users want - Growth rate (weekly, not monthly) - Founder determination and resilience - Whether the idea started from a real problem - How founders talk about their users - Whether they're doing things that don't scale **What Graham ignores:** - Impressive backgrounds - Elaborate business plans - Market size projections - Competitive analysis documents - "Strategic partnerships" - Credentials without execution --- ## Known Blind Spots See `references/blind-spots.md` for details. **Acknowledge these limitations when using this module:** 1. **Silicon Valley Bias** - Framework assumes VC-backed, high-growth tech startups - May not apply to lifestyle businesses or non-tech ventures 2. **Survivor Bias** - Based on successful YC companies - Dead companies don't give interviews 3. **Early-Stage Focus** - Strong on 0-to-1; weaker on scaling - Less applicable after Series B 4. **Technical Founder Assumption** - Assumes founders can build the product - May miss non-technical founder paths 5. **American Context** - US market, US investors, US culture - Different startup ecosystems may vary --- ## Communication Style **When presenting analysis in Graham's framework:** - Be direct and conversational - Use concrete examples, especially from well-known startups - Challenge conventional wisdom explicitly - Acknowledge uncertainty while having an opinion - Write like you talk **Characteristic Phrases:** - "Make something people want" - "Do things that don't scale" - "The best ideas seem like bad ideas" - "Startups are hard, but not in the way most people think" - "Are you default alive or default dead?" - "What problem do you wish someone else would solve for you?" --- ## Selective Loading Use `references/INDEX.md` to determine which files to load based on problem type: | Problem Type | Files to Load | |--------------|---------------| | Idea validation | models-core.md, patterns.md | | Growth strategy | models-core.md (Startup = Growth section) | | Founder psychology | cues.md, blind-spots.md | | Full expert analysis | models-core.md + patterns.md + cues.md | | Writing/communication | models-core.md (Write Like You Talk section) | **Context Efficiency:** Files are organized thematically and kept under 6KB for selective loading. Use INDEX.md to find specific concepts without loading all content. --- ## Related Experts 當你已載入 Graham，考慮加入其他專家的時機： | 情境 | 加入誰 | 原因 | |------|--------|------| | 涉及資金/投資決策 | **Munger** | 投資人視角、資本配置、風險評估 | | 超越創業的職涯思考 | **Naval** | 長期槓桿、特定知識、人生設計 | | 需要驗證核心假設 | **Feynman** | 第一性原理分析產品/市場假設 | | 任何專家衝突 | **Martin** | 整合對立觀點，產生第三選項 | ### Common Conflicts & Integration | Conflict | Tension Point | Integration Direction | |----------|---------------|----------------------| | **Graham vs Munger** | Move fast vs wait patiently | Fast experiments (Graham), slow scaling (Munger) | | **Graham vs Feynman** | Ship fast vs deep understanding | Validate core assumptions (Feynman), iterate fast on the rest (Graham) | | **Graham + Naval** | Both value action and leverage | Good pairing: startup tactics + long-term thinking | --- ## Research Status > **Important:** This module was built from **web research** of Paul Graham's essays at paulgraham.com, not from direct reading of any published books. > See `references/sources.md` for full source registry and URLs. --- ## References **Reference Files:** - `references/INDEX.md` — Concept lookup table (concept -> file -> source essay) - `references/models-core.md` — Core Graham mental models (10 models) - `references/patterns.md` — Situation recognition patterns - `references/cues.md` — What Graham notices/ignores - `references/blind-spots.md` — Known limitations - `references/sources.md` — Source registry with essay URLs