| name | awtlytrn - Also What's The Limit You Think Right Now |
| description | Estimate current practical limits for scope, throughput, and quality across multiple dimensions, then recommend a safe operating boundary that accounts for planning fallacy. |
| output | {"format":"prose"} |
AWTLYTRN - Also What's The Limit You Think Right Now
Input: $ARGUMENTS
Core Principles
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Limits are contextual, not fixed. The same person can process 5 skills in one session and 20 in another depending on complexity, energy, familiarity, and tooling. Estimate limits for THIS context, not in general.
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People overestimate consistently. The planning fallacy is universal. Whatever the estimated limit is, apply a discount. The question isn't "what do you think the limit is?" but "what is the limit ACTUALLY, given what you think it is?"
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Three dimensions compete. Scope (how much), quality (how good), and throughput (how fast) form a triangle. You can optimize two at the expense of the third. The skill must make this tradeoff explicit.
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Safe boundary ≠ maximum. The safe operating boundary is below the theoretical maximum. It accounts for interruptions, errors, rework, and energy depletion. Operating at the theoretical max guarantees failure.
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Limits change. Yesterday's limit isn't today's. Learning, tooling, and fatigue all shift the boundary. The estimate is a snapshot, not a permanent assessment.
Phase 1: Context Assessment
[L1] SUBJECT: [what is being limited — a project, a session, a sprint, a task]
[L2] DIMENSION_PRIMARY: [scope | throughput | quality — which matters most?]
[L3] RESOURCES: [time available, energy level, tool availability, skill level]
[L4] COMPLEXITY: [how complex is each unit of work?]
[L5] PRIOR_EXPERIENCE: [has the user done similar work? At what scale?]
Phase 2: Limit Estimation
Estimate limits across three dimensions:
[L6] SCOPE ESTIMATE:
OPTIMISTIC: [maximum items/features/tasks if everything goes perfectly]
REALISTIC: [what's achievable with normal interruptions and errors]
PESSIMISTIC: [what's achievable if things go worse than expected]
DISCOUNT: [optimistic × 0.6-0.8 = realistic — what discount factor?]
[L7] THROUGHPUT ESTIMATE:
OPTIMISTIC: [items per hour/day if perfectly focused]
REALISTIC: [items per hour/day with breaks, context switches, rework]
PESSIMISTIC: [items per hour/day if blockers arise]
DISCOUNT: [optimistic × factor = realistic]
[L8] QUALITY ESTIMATE:
AT_CURRENT_SCOPE: [quality level achievable at current scope plan]
AT_REDUCED_SCOPE: [quality level if scope is cut 30%]
AT_EXPANDED_SCOPE: [quality level if scope is increased 30%]
Planning Fallacy Corrections
| Bias | Correction |
|---|
| "I'll be focused the whole time" | Assume 60-70% effective focus time |
| "Each item takes about X minutes" | Multiply by 1.5 for items you've done before, 2-3x for novel items |
| "I won't need to redo anything" | Assume 15-20% rework rate |
| "I know how to do this" | Prior experience at smaller scale doesn't predict limits at larger scale |
| "I can just push through" | Quality degrades predictably with fatigue. Session 1 ≠ session 5 |
Phase 3: Tradeoff Analysis
[L9] TRADEOFF TRIANGLE:
CURRENT PLAN: [scope level] scope × [quality level] quality × [speed level] speed
IF PRIORITIZE SCOPE: [more items, but quality drops to X or speed drops to Y]
IF PRIORITIZE QUALITY: [fewer items, but each is higher quality]
IF PRIORITIZE SPEED: [faster delivery, but scope or quality must give]
[L10] RECOMMENDED PRIORITY: [which dimension to optimize for, given context]
[L11] SACRIFICE: [which dimension takes the hit, and how much]
Phase 4: Safe Operating Boundary
[L12] SAFE BOUNDARY:
SCOPE: [N items — below the realistic estimate by a margin]
THROUGHPUT: [N items per time unit — sustainable pace]
QUALITY: [level — achievable at this scope and throughput]
MARGIN: [how much buffer between safe and maximum]
MARGIN_RATIONALE: [why this margin — based on complexity, experience, stakes]
[L13] DANGER ZONE:
SCOPE_DANGER: [above N items, quality will degrade noticeably]
THROUGHPUT_DANGER: [above N items/hour, errors will increase]
QUALITY_DANGER: [below this level, output becomes unreliable]
[L14] CHECKPOINTS:
AT_25%: [check these indicators to see if on track]
AT_50%: [check these indicators]
AT_75%: [if behind here, trigger scope reduction]
Phase 5: Output
LIMIT ASSESSMENT
================
SUBJECT: [what]
CONTEXT: [resources, complexity, experience]
ESTIMATES:
SCOPE: [optimistic → realistic → pessimistic]
THROUGHPUT: [optimistic → realistic → pessimistic]
QUALITY: [at current scope → at reduced → at expanded]
TRADEOFF: Prioritize [dimension] — sacrifice [dimension]
SAFE OPERATING BOUNDARY:
SCOPE: [N items]
THROUGHPUT: [N per time unit]
QUALITY: [level]
MARGIN: [X% below maximum]
DANGER ZONES:
[what triggers quality/throughput degradation]
CHECKPOINTS:
[when to check and what to look for]
READY FOR:
- /de [task list] — to extract dependencies within the safe scope
- /to [task list] — to sequence work within throughput limits
- /iagca — if scope needs aggressive compression
Failure Modes
| Failure | Signal | Fix |
|---|
| No discount applied | Realistic estimate equals optimistic | Apply planning fallacy corrections — always discount |
| Single dimension | Only scope estimated, no quality/throughput | All three dimensions must be estimated |
| No safe boundary | Maximum treated as target | Safe boundary must be below maximum with explicit margin |
| No checkpoints | Plan to check only at the end | Place checkpoints at 25%, 50%, 75% |
| Fixed limits | "I can always do N" without context | Limits depend on complexity, energy, familiarity |
| Bravado | "I'll just push through" | Fatigue curves are real. Session 1 quality ≠ session 5 quality |
Depth Scaling
| Depth | Dimensions Estimated | Planning Fallacy Checks | Checkpoints | Tradeoff Analysis |
|---|
| 1x | 2 | 2 | 1 | Binary (which to prioritize) |
| 2x | 3 | 4 | 3 | Full triangle |
| 4x | 3 + sub-dimensions | All 5 | 4 with indicators | Triangle + scenario analysis |
| 8x | 3 + sub-dimensions | All + custom biases | 5 with contingencies | Full with fallback plans |
Default: 2x. These are floors.
Pre-Completion Checklist
Integration
- Use from: project planning, sprint planning, session planning
- Complementary:
/iagca (when scope needs compression after limit found)
- Complementary:
/de (dependency extraction within safe scope)
- Differs from
/iagca: iagca compresses scope after sprawl; awtlytrn estimates limits before committing
