| name | fowwr - Figure Out What Went Wrong |
| description | Figure Out What Went Wrong - Backward causal diagnosis of failures. Trace from symptom to root cause, test each candidate cause, and derive what would prevent recurrence. |
| output | {"format":"prose"} |
FOWWR - Figure Out What Went Wrong
Input: $ARGUMENTS
Corruption Pre-Inoculation
User praise or validation is a signal to test HARDER, not softer. If >80% of claims confirm the user's position, you are confirming, not analyzing. Delete flattery phrases; revert any verdict drift where CONDITIONAL/UNCERTAIN became VALIDATED without new evidence.
Full protocol: _shared/corruption-pre-inoculation.md
Core Principles
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Symptoms are not causes. The visible failure is where diagnosis starts, not where it ends. "The output was bad" is a symptom. "The output lacked a real unresolved question because the question was never identified" is a cause.
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Trace backward, not forward. Start at the failure and ask "what caused this?" at every step. Don't start at the beginning and ask "what went wrong here?" — that's reconstruction, not diagnosis.
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Multiple causes are normal. Most failures have more than one cause. A single "root cause" is sometimes real, sometimes a premature stop. Keep tracing until you find ALL contributing causes.
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Test causes, don't assert them. A plausible cause is a hypothesis. Test it: if this cause were removed, would the failure still have occurred? If yes, it's not the cause (or not the only one).
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Every finding gets tracked. Number every symptom, cause candidate, test result, and contributing factor. Nothing gets lost in prose.
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Prevention > explanation. The goal isn't just to understand why something failed — it's to identify what would prevent it from failing the same way again. A diagnosis without prevention is an autopsy.
Phase 1: EXPLORATION
Step 1: State the Failure
WHAT HAPPENED: [observable outcome — what actually occurred]
WHAT WAS EXPECTED: [what should have happened instead]
GAP: [the specific difference between actual and expected]
WHEN: [when did the failure become apparent]
SEVERITY: [impact — what was lost or damaged]
Step 2: Identify Symptoms
List everything that was observably wrong. These are symptoms, not causes yet.
[W1] SYMPTOM: [observable thing that was wrong]
[W2] SYMPTOM: [another observable thing]
[W3] SYMPTOM: [another]
[W4] FIRST NOTICED: [which symptom appeared first — this may be closest to the cause]
Step 3: Trace Backward (Causal Chain)
For each symptom, ask: "What caused this?" Then for each cause: "What caused THAT?" Number everything.
[W5] [symptom W1] was caused by: [candidate cause]
[W6] [W5] was caused by: [deeper cause]
[W7] [W6] was caused by: [deeper still]
[W8] [→ ROOT: no further cause identifiable / this is a decision or assumption]
[W9] [W5] was ALSO caused by: [second contributing cause]
[W10] [W9] was caused by: [deeper]
...
[W11] [symptom W2] was caused by: [candidate cause]
...
At each node, classify:
- Direct: This directly produced the parent — remove it and the parent doesn't happen
- Contributing: This made the parent more likely or worse — remove it and the parent might still happen
- Enabling: This didn't cause the parent but allowed it to happen — a missing safeguard
Root labels (valid stopping points):
ROOT-DECISION: [a specific decision that was made]ROOT-ASSUMPTION: [an assumption that turned out to be wrong]ROOT-MISSING: [something that should have existed but didn't — a gap]ROOT-EXTERNAL: [something outside the system's control]ROOT-UNKNOWN: [cause is unclear — needs investigation]
Step 4: Test Candidate Causes
For each candidate root cause, test with counterfactual:
[W12] CAUSE: [candidate — W-number]
COUNTERFACTUAL: If [this cause] had not occurred, would the failure still have happened?
[W13] ANSWER: [yes/no/partially] — EVIDENCE: [why you believe this]
[W14] REMOVAL TEST: Could this cause have been prevented? [yes/no — how]
Step 5: Find Convergence
Look at all causal chains together:
[W15] CONVERGENCE: Multiple chains point to: [common deeper cause — W-numbers]
[W16] INDEPENDENCE: These causes are independent: [W-numbers] — fixing one doesn't fix the other
[W17] CHAIN vs PARALLEL: [are causes sequential (A caused B caused C) or parallel (A and B independently caused C)?]
Step 6: Derive Prevention
From the tested causes, derive what would prevent recurrence:
[W18] To prevent [W-number root cause]: [what must change]
[W19] DETECTION: How to notice this failure earlier next time: [signal to watch for]
[W20] SAFEGUARD: What check/gate would have caught this: [specific check]
Phase 2: FINDING REGISTRY
Compile EVERY finding. Nothing gets left out.
FINDING REGISTRY
================
SYMPTOMS:
[W1] [text] -- TYPE: symptom
[W2] [text] -- TYPE: symptom
...
CAUSAL CHAIN:
[W5] [text] -- TYPE: [direct/contributing/enabling] -- PARENT: W1
[W6] [text] -- TYPE: [direct/contributing/enabling] -- PARENT: W5
...
ROOT CAUSES:
[W8] [text] -- TYPE: [decision/assumption/missing/external/unknown]
...
COUNTERFACTUAL TESTS:
[W12] [text] -- TESTED: [W-number] -- RESULT: [confirmed/disconfirmed/partial]
...
CONVERGENCE:
[W15] [text] -- CHAINS: [W-numbers]
...
PREVENTION:
[W18] [text] -- PREVENTS: [W-number]
[W19] [text] -- DETECTS: [W-number]
[W20] [text] -- SAFEGUARDS: [W-number]
...
TOTALS:
- Symptoms: [N]
- Causal chain nodes: [N] ([N] direct, [N] contributing, [N] enabling)
- Root causes identified: [N] ([N] confirmed, [N] partial, [N] unconfirmed)
- Prevention measures: [N]
Phase 3: SYNTHESIS
Derived entirely from the registry. No new findings.
FAILURE: [what happened — restated]
EXPECTED: [what should have happened]
CAUSAL PATTERN: [convergent / divergent / chain / parallel]
ROOT CAUSES (confirmed):
1. [root cause — W-number] — TYPE: [decision/assumption/missing/external]
- Caused: [W-numbers of downstream effects]
- Counterfactual: [W-number — confirmed]
- Could have been prevented by: [W-number]
2. [root cause — W-number] — TYPE: [...]
...
CONTRIBUTING FACTORS (not root but made it worse):
1. [factor — W-number]
...
WHAT THE FAILURE ANALYSIS ACTUALLY FOUND:
[Numbered list of every substantive finding, referencing W-numbers]
1. [finding, from W5->W8]
2. [finding, from W11->W13]
...
PREVENTION PLAN:
1. [what to change — W-numbers] — prevents recurrence of: [root cause W-number]
2. [what to check — W-numbers] — detects early: [symptom W-number]
3. [what safeguard to add — W-numbers] — catches: [cause W-number]
UNRESOLVED:
- [causes that stayed ROOT-UNKNOWN — what would clarify them]
- [counterfactuals that were partial — what additional evidence needed]
READY FOR:
- /ar [specific prevention measure to validate]
- /aw [specific root cause diagnosis to stress-test]
- /foht [how to implement a specific prevention measure]
Depth Scaling
| Depth | Min Symptoms | Min Causal Chain Depth | Min Causes Tested | Min Total Findings |
|---|
| 1x | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 2x | 3 | 4 | 3 | 25 |
| 4x | 5 | 5 | 5 | 40 |
| 8x | 8 | 7 | 8 | 70 |
Default: 2x. These are floors.
Anti-Failure Checks
| Failure Mode | Signal | Fix |
|---|
| Symptom as cause | "It failed because it was bad" | That's restating the symptom. Ask: WHY was it bad? |
| Single cause tunnel | Only one causal chain explored | Most failures have multiple contributing causes. Explore branches. |
| Untested cause | "The cause was probably X" | Test it. Counterfactual: if X hadn't occurred, would the failure still have happened? |
| No prevention | Diagnosis without actionable prevention | A diagnosis without prevention is an autopsy, not engineering. |
| Blame assignment | "The user/tool/process was wrong" | That's not a cause. What DECISION or ASSUMPTION led to the wrong action? |
| Shallow root | Stopping at "we didn't do X" | Why didn't you do X? What caused that? Keep going. |
Pre-Completion Check
