| name | roip - ROI Optimization |
| description | Find the highest-return action in any set of options. Lists options, estimates costs and benefits, calculates ROI, sensitivity-tests top candidates, and recommends the best path. |
| output | {"format":"prose"} |
ROI Optimization
Input: $ARGUMENTS
Step 1: List All Options
Enumerate every viable option, including "do nothing."
CONTEXT: [what decision or allocation is being optimized]
GOAL: [what "return" means here]
OPTIONS:
1. [option] — brief description
2. [option] — brief description
3. [option] — brief description
...
N. Do nothing / status quo
SKIP: If options are already enumerated in the input, restate them briefly and proceed.
Step 2: Estimate Cost of Each
Cost includes time, money, effort, opportunity cost, and risk.
COST ESTIMATES:
| Option | Time | Money | Effort | Opportunity Cost | Risk | Total Cost Score |
|--------|------|-------|--------|-----------------|------|-----------------|
| [opt 1] | [est] | [est] | [est] | [est] | [est] | [1-10] |
| [opt 2] | [est] | [est] | [est] | [est] | [est] | [1-10] |
...
COST ASSUMPTIONS:
- [assumption 1]
- [assumption 2]
Step 3: Estimate Benefit of Each
Benefit includes direct value, indirect value, learning, and optionality.
BENEFIT ESTIMATES:
| Option | Direct Value | Indirect Value | Learning | Optionality | Total Benefit Score |
|--------|-------------|----------------|----------|-------------|-------------------|
| [opt 1] | [est] | [est] | [est] | [est] | [1-10] |
| [opt 2] | [est] | [est] | [est] | [est] | [1-10] |
...
BENEFIT ASSUMPTIONS:
- [assumption 1]
- [assumption 2]
Step 4: Calculate ROI
ROI RANKING:
| Rank | Option | Benefit | Cost | ROI (Benefit/Cost) | Confidence |
|------|--------|---------|------|-------------------|------------|
| 1 | [option] | [score] | [score] | [ratio] | [HIGH/MED/LOW] |
| 2 | [option] | [score] | [score] | [ratio] | [HIGH/MED/LOW] |
...
TOP 3:
1. [option] — ROI: [ratio] — Why: [brief rationale]
2. [option] — ROI: [ratio] — Why: [brief rationale]
3. [option] — ROI: [ratio] — Why: [brief rationale]
Step 5: Sensitivity-Test Top Candidates
Stress-test the top options by varying assumptions.
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS:
[Top option 1]:
- If [optimistic assumption]: ROI becomes [value]
- If [pessimistic assumption]: ROI becomes [value]
- Break-even requires: [minimum condition]
[Top option 2]:
- If [optimistic assumption]: ROI becomes [value]
- If [pessimistic assumption]: ROI becomes [value]
- Break-even requires: [minimum condition]
ROBUSTNESS: [which option holds up best across scenarios?]
FRAGILITY: [which option is most dependent on specific assumptions?]
Step 6: Recommend
RECOMMENDATION: [the option with the best risk-adjusted ROI]
WHY THIS OPTION:
- [reason 1]
- [reason 2]
KEY RISK: [biggest thing that could make this wrong]
MITIGATION: [how to reduce that risk]
NEXT STEP: [concrete first action]
ALTERNATIVE IF RISK-AVERSE: [safer option with rationale]
Integration
Use with:
/cba -> Detailed cost-benefit analysis on the top candidate/dcp -> Structure the final decision formally/gapf -> Ensure no options were missed before optimizing
