foreclosure-analysis

name	foreclosure-analysis
description	Expert skill for analyzing Florida foreclosure auction properties using The Everest Ascent™ 12-stage methodology. Use when analyzing properties, calculating max bids, researching liens, or making bid/skip decisions for Brevard County foreclosure auctions.

Foreclosure Analysis Skill

Expert methodology for analyzing foreclosure auction properties in Brevard County, Florida using The Everest Ascent™ systematic approach.

When to Use This Skill

• Analyzing foreclosure auction properties
• Calculating maximum bid amounts
• Researching title and lien priority
• Making BID/REVIEW/SKIP recommendations
• Generating property analysis reports
• Evaluating exit strategies (wholesale, retail, rental)

The Everest Ascent™ 12-Stage Pipeline

Stage 1: Discovery

• Scrape auction listings from RealForeclose (brevard.realforeclose.com)
• Extract: case number, property address, plaintiff, defendant, judgment amount, auction date
• Filter for in-person Titusville courthouse auctions vs online tax deed sales
• Initial data validation and deduplication

Stage 2: Scraping & Enrichment

Data Sources (Priority Order):

1. BCPAO API (gis.brevardfl.gov/gissrv/rest/services/Base_Map/Parcel_New_WKID2881/MapServer/5)

   • Property details: lot size, living area, year built, zoning
   • Photos: masterPhotoUrl field (format: https://www.bcpao.us/photos/{prefix}/{account}011.jpg)
   • Tax values: just value, market value, assessed value

2. RealForeclose

   • Case details, auction status, sale date
   • Historical auction results

3. Zillow/Redfin (for residential properties)

   • Beds, baths, square footage (BCPAO GIS lacks these)
   • Recent sales comps
   • Market trends

Critical: BCPAO provides property data but NOT beds/baths for residential. Must use Zillow/Redfin for complete residential analysis.

Stage 3: Title Search

• Search BECA (Brevard County Clerk) for recorded documents
• Identify all mortgages, liens, judgments in chronological order
• NEVER GUESS - only use actual recorded documents

Stage 4: Lien Priority Analysis

Florida Foreclosure Law - Lien Priority:

1. First Position Mortgage Foreclosure (most common):

   • Senior mortgage forecloses
   • Wipes out junior liens (2nd mortgages, HELOCs, mechanic's liens)
   • Buyer gets clean title except for:
     • Property taxes (always survive)
     • HOA assessments recorded BEFORE the foreclosing mortgage
     • Code enforcement liens (sometimes)

2. HOA Foreclosure (CRITICAL SCENARIO):

   • HOA forecloses for unpaid assessments
   • Senior mortgage SURVIVES
   • Buyer inherits the senior mortgage debt
   • AUTOMATIC DO_NOT_BID unless bid covers: HOA judgment + senior mortgage balance + your profit
   • Detection: Plaintiff is HOA/condo association, mortgage still on title

3. Tax Certificate Foreclosure:

   • County sells tax lien certificates
   • After 2 years, certificate holder can foreclose
   • Wipes out ALL liens including mortgages
   • Very clean title for buyer

AcclaimWeb Search Pattern:

1. Search property address
2. Download all mortgages (OR book/page references)
3. Download all liens, judgments, lis pendens
4. Check recording dates vs foreclosing lien date
5. Flag if HOA plaintiff + senior mortgage exists

Detection Logic:

• If plaintiff contains: "HOA", "Homeowners Association", "Condo Association", "POA"
• AND mortgage recorded BEFORE HOA lien
• → Senior mortgage survives
• → DO_NOT_BID

Stage 5: Tax Certificate Check

• Search RealTDM for outstanding tax certificates
• Check redemption status
• Tax certificates < 2 years: owner can still redeem
• Tax certificates ≥ 2 years: holder can foreclose

Stage 6: Demographics & Market Analysis

Census API Data:

• Median household income (target: $78-82K)
• Population trends
• Vacancy rates (target: 5-6%)
• Age demographics

Optimal Zip Codes (ML-validated):

• 32937 Satellite Beach (income: $82K, vacancy: 5.2%)
• 32940 Melbourne/Viera (income: $80K, vacancy: 5.8%)
• 32953 Merritt Island (income: $78K, vacancy: 6.1%)
• 32903 Indialantic (income: $81K, vacancy: 5.4%)

Red Flags:

• High crime zip codes: 32901, 32904, 32935
• Declining population trends
• Vacancy rates > 8%

Stage 7: ML Probability Score

XGBoost Model (64.4% accuracy):

• Predicts: Third-party purchase probability, estimated sale price
• Features: judgment amount, property value, zip code, plaintiff type, time on market
• Output: Probability score 0-100%

Plaintiff Risk Profiles (28 tracked):

• Wells Fargo: 72% third-party purchase (aggressive bidders)
• Bank of America: 65% third-party purchase
• US Bank: 58% third-party purchase
• Local credit unions: 45% third-party purchase (bank often bids)

Stage 8: Maximum Bid Calculation

Formula:

Max Bid = (ARV × 70%) - Repairs - $10,000 - MIN($25,000, 15% × ARV)

Components:

• ARV (After Repair Value): Zillow/Redfin comps, BCPAO market value
• Repairs: Estimate from photos, property age, condition
  • $0-5K: Good condition, cosmetic only
  • $10-25K: Moderate rehab (kitchen, baths, flooring)
  • $30-50K: Major rehab (roof, HVAC, structural)
  • $60K+: Gut rehab or structural issues
• $10K buffer: Holding costs, closing, surprises
• MIN($25K, 15% ARV): Profit margin

Example:

ARV: $350,000
Repairs: $20,000
Max Bid = ($350,000 × 0.70) - $20,000 - $10,000 - MIN($25,000, $52,500)
Max Bid = $245,000 - $20,000 - $10,000 - $25,000
Max Bid = $190,000

Stage 9: Decision Logic

Bid/Judgment Ratio:

Ratio = Max Bid ÷ Judgment Amount

Decision Rules:

• Ratio ≥ 0.75 (75%): BID - Strong deal, bid up to max
• Ratio 0.60-0.74 (60-74%): REVIEW - Marginal deal, need more analysis
• Ratio < 0.60 (<60%): SKIP - Insufficient margin

Additional BID Criteria:

• Clean title (no HOA foreclosure with senior mortgage)
• Repairs < 30% of ARV
• Property in target zip code
• Exit strategy viable (flip, rental, wholesale)

Additional SKIP Criteria:

• HOA foreclosure + senior mortgage survives
• Code violations > $10K
• Structural issues (foundation, severe water damage)
• Environmental issues (mold, asbestos, underground tanks)
• Title clouds (unresolved liens, boundary disputes)

Stage 10: Report Generation

One-Page DOCX Format:

• Header: BidDeed.AI branding (navy #1E3A5F)
• Property Photo: BCPAO masterPhotoUrl
• Key Metrics:
  • Address, case number, auction date
  • Judgment amount, max bid, bid/judgment ratio
  • ARV, repair estimate, profit margin
  • ML probability score
• Decision Box:
  • BID (green #E8F5E9)
  • REVIEW (orange #FFF3E0)
  • SKIP (red #FFEBEE)
• Exit Strategy: Wholesale, flip, rental with projected returns
• Lien Summary: Clean or issues flagged
• Risk Factors: HOA, code violations, structural issues

NEVER include:

• Property360 references
• Mariam Shapira references
• Everest Capital of Brevard LLC (use "Everest Capital USA" or "BidDeed.AI")

Stage 11: Disposition Tracking

• Record actual auction outcome
• Track: winning bid, buyer, bank credit bid
• Compare predicted vs actual results
• Update ML model with ground truth data

Stage 12: Archive & Learning

• Save all analysis to Supabase auction_results table
• Document lessons learned
• Update decision thresholds based on actual results
• Refine repair estimates from actual rehab costs

Data Sources & APIs

BCPAO API:

Base: https://gis.brevardfl.gov/gissrv/rest/services/Base_Map/Parcel_New_WKID2881/MapServer/5
Query: /query?where=PARCEL_ID='...'&outFields=*&f=json
Photo: https://www.bcpao.us/photos/{prefix}/{account}011.jpg

Census API:

Base: https://api.census.gov/data/2021/acs/acs5
Key: Public (no auth needed for basic queries)

AcclaimWeb:

• Manual search (no API)
• Search by: address, name, book/page
• Download PDFs of mortgages/liens

RealForeclose:

• Scrape auction listings
• Use async httpx, anti-detection headers
• Respect rate limits

Supabase:

Project: mocerqjnksmhcjzxrewo.supabase.co
Tables: auction_results, historical_auctions, insights

Critical Rules

1. NEVER guess about liens - only use recorded documents from BECA
2. ALWAYS check for HOA foreclosures - senior mortgage survival is deal killer
3. Use ACTUAL property data - no fake comps or estimated values
4. BCPAO lacks beds/baths - must use Zillow/Redfin for residential
5. One-page reports only - BidDeed.AI branding, DOCX format
6. Fair Housing compliance - NO race/ethnicity/familial status in analysis
7. Conservative estimates - better to skip than overbid

Exit Strategies

Wholesale (Fastest):

• Target: 65-70% ARV
• Timeline: 7-30 days
• Profit: $10-25K
• Best for: Clean properties, quick capital return

Retail Flip (Highest Profit):

• Target: 70-75% ARV + repairs
• Timeline: 3-6 months
• Profit: $40-80K
• Best for: Nice neighborhoods, cosmetic repairs

Mid-Term Rental (Third Sword):

• Target zip codes: 32937, 32940, 32953, 32903
• Timeline: Hold 1-3 years
• Cash flow: $800-1,500/month
• Best for: Furnished rentals, traveling professionals

Common Pitfalls to Avoid

1. Bidding on HOA foreclosures without checking senior mortgages
2. Trusting BCPAO beds/baths for residential (often inaccurate/missing)
3. Underestimating repairs (always add 20% buffer)
4. Ignoring code violations (can delay closing/sale)
5. Overbidding due to auction fever (stick to max bid)
6. Skipping title search (hidden liens can destroy deal)

Pro Tips

• Attend auctions to observe bidding patterns
• Build relationships with title companies
• Pre-arrange financing for quick closes
• Visit properties before auction (exterior only)
• Track competitor bidding patterns
• Keep $50-100K liquid for quick acquisitions

Example Analysis Workflow

1. Property discovered in RealForeclose scrape
2. BCPAO API pull → property data + photo
3. Zillow scrape → beds/baths/comps (if residential)
4. AcclaimWeb search → title/lien documents
5. Lien priority analysis → HOA check
6. Census API → demographics
7. ML model → probability score
8. Max bid calculation → ARV × 70% formula
9. Decision logic → BID/REVIEW/SKIP
10. Generate DOCX report → BidDeed.AI branded
11. Save to Supabase → auction_results table

This skill encodes 10+ years of Brevard County foreclosure investing experience into a systematic, repeatable process that maximizes ROI while minimizing risk.