| name | Frontier of Understanding (NCTs) |
| description | Before setting outcome goals, identify your understanding level. If you don't know the levers, set a learning goal, not a revenue goal. Don't commit to outcomes you can't control. |
The Frontier of Understanding (NCTs)
"If you don't understand how to move a particular metric, then the right goal is to set a goal to increase your understanding not to move that metric." — Ravi Mehta
What It Is
Instead of blindly focusing on outcomes, teams should identify their "Frontier of Understanding." If the levers are unknown, the goal should be "Understanding Risk" (learning); if known, the goal can be "Execution Risk" (doing) or "Strategic Risk" (outcomes).
When To Use
- Quarterly planning when leadership demands metric increase
- Team has no clear hypothesis on how to achieve
- Avoiding "throwing spaghetti at the wall"
- Setting realistic, achievable goals
The Risk Levels
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ UNDERSTANDING RISK │
│ "We don't know the levers" │
│ → Goal = Insight / Learning │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ DEPENDENCY RISK │
│ "We know levers but lack tools/resources" │
│ → Goal = Unblock dependencies │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ EXECUTION RISK │
│ "We have the tools" │
│ → Goal = High velocity / Quality experiments │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ STRATEGIC RISK │
│ "We are executing well" │
│ → Goal = Verify hypothesis moves the metric │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
How To Apply
STEP 1: Identify Your Frontier
└── Do we know what moves this metric?
└── Have we proven the levers work?
STEP 2: Match Goal to Frontier
└── Unknown levers → Learning goal
└── Known levers → Execution goal
└── Proven levers → Outcome goal
STEP 3: Don't Overcommit
└── If in Understanding phase, don't promise revenue
└── Promise insights instead
STEP 4: Move Along the Frontier
└── Each quarter, advance your understanding
└── Eventually you earn the right to set outcome goals
Common Mistakes
❌ Setting an outcome goal (Revenue) when in "Understanding Risk" phase
❌ "Throwing spaghetti at the wall" to hit arbitrary targets
❌ Treating all goals as equally achievable
Real-World Example
At Tinder, data showed high spending from a small group. Instead of blindly trying to grow revenue, they set a goal to understand WHY. They found these weren't rich people, but frequent travelers/salespeople. This insight led to "Tinder Platinum."
Source: Ravi Mehta, Former CPO of Tinder, Lenny's Podcast
