| name | task-estimator |
| description | Estimates compute tokens and cost for TaskMarket tasks before posting or bidding. Use when planning task compute cost, setting fair bounty rewards, evaluating reward-versus-cost ROI, or comparing multiple tasks by expected margin. |
Task Estimator Skill
Estimates the compute tokens an AI agent needs to complete a TaskMarket task, then calculates cost vs reward to determine if the bounty is profitable.
Mental Model
A task completion has four compute phases:
| Phase | What happens | Token weight |
|---|
| Read | Read task description, spec files, existing code | Low |
| Plan | Reason about approach, architecture decisions | Medium |
| Execute | Write code/content, make tool calls, iterate | High |
| Verify | Tests, deployment, submission formatting | Medium |
Each phase has input tokens (context) and output tokens (generated text/code). Use the reference tables in references/token-tables.md to score each phase.
Dynamic Context and Arguments
Task text / scope: $ARGUMENTS
Task ID (positional): $0
When a task ID is provided, inject live context before scoring:
Task snapshot: !taskmarket task get $0
Board snapshot (batch mode): !taskmarket task list --status open
Estimation Process
- Classify the task type from
$ARGUMENTS or live task context from taskmarket task get $0
- Score each phase using
references/token-tables.md with complexity inferred from $ARGUMENTS/$0
- Sum tokens → apply model cost → compare to reward
- Output the estimate in the standard format, including assumptions derived from
$ARGUMENTS
Task Type Reference
| Type | Examples | Rough total tokens |
|---|
api-agent | Build a paid Lucid Agent with x402, deploy to Railway | 180k–350k |
pr-code | Add a feature/fix to an existing repo, open PR | 120k–250k |
pr-tests | Write test suite for existing package | 80k–180k |
pr-docs | Write tutorial, README, migration guide | 60k–120k |
pr-refactor | Port/migrate code, update imports, cleanup | 40k–100k |
deploy-config | Dockerfile, CI yml, Railway/Vercel config | 30k–80k |
content | Blog post, SEO article, writeup | 40k–90k |
research | Data analysis, competitive research | 50k–120k |
blueprint | Design doc, spec, architecture plan | 30k–70k |
Standard Output Format
Always produce this block:
## Task Estimate: <task title or first 60 chars>
**Type:** <task-type>
**Complexity:** <low|medium|high|very-high>
### Token Budget
| Phase | Input tokens | Output tokens | Total |
|----------|-------------|---------------|---------|
| Read | X,000 | — | X,000 |
| Plan | X,000 | X,000 | X,000 |
| Execute | X,000 | X,000 | X,000 |
| Verify | X,000 | X,000 | X,000 |
| **Total**| **X,000** | **X,000** | **X,000** |
### Cost Estimate (sonnet-4.5 @ $3/$15 per M)
- Input cost: $X.XX
- Output cost: $X.XX
- **Total compute cost: $X.XX**
### Reward Analysis
- Task reward: $X.XX USDC
- Compute cost: $X.XX
- Net margin: $X.XX (XX%)
- **Verdict:** <PROFITABLE / BREAK-EVEN / LOSS / SKIP>
### Notes
- <key assumptions or risk factors>
- <what would increase token usage>
Verdict Thresholds
| Margin | Verdict |
|---|
| > 70% | PROFITABLE — strong take |
| 40–70% | PROFITABLE — reasonable |
| 10–40% | BREAK-EVEN — marginal, proceed if strategic |
| < 10% | LOSS — skip unless relationship/reputation value |
Model Cost Reference (per 1M tokens)
| Model | Input | Output | Notes |
|---|
| claude-sonnet-4.5 | $3.00 | $15.00 | Default workhorse |
| claude-opus-4 | $15.00 | $75.00 | Complex reasoning |
| gpt-5-codex | $3.00 | $15.00 | Code tasks |
| gemini-2.5-pro | $1.25 | $10.00 | Budget option |
Default to sonnet-4.5 unless task requires deep reasoning (use opus) or pure coding (use codex).
Prices are estimates and can change. Verify live rates for claude-sonnet-4.5, claude-opus-4, gpt-5-codex, and gemini-2.5-pro before final decisions. gpt-5-codex pricing is not consistently published and must be confirmed directly with the provider before use.
Live-rate lookup example: !fetch-model-pricing claude-sonnet-4.5 claude-opus-4 gpt-5-codex gemini-2.5-pro
Key Multipliers
Apply these on top of base estimates:
- TDD required (tests-first): ×1.4 on Execute phase
- Deploy to Railway: +15k tokens (fixed)
- xgate.run listing: +8k tokens (fixed)
- PR + CI green required: +20k tokens (fixed)
- No existing codebase to reference: ×1.2 on Read phase
- Complex external API integration: ×1.3 on Execute
- Multiple deliverables (e.g., API + frontend + tests): ×1.5 overall
- Iteration required (likely back-and-forth): ×1.3 overall
Batch Estimation
When estimating multiple tasks (e.g., reviewing a TaskMarket board), produce a summary table first, then detailed breakdowns on request:
| Task | Type | Tokens | Cost | Reward | Margin | Verdict |
|------|------|--------|------|--------|--------|---------|
| ... |
Sort by margin descending so best opportunities surface first.
Detailed Token Tables
For per-phase token scoring details: see references/token-tables.md
For worked examples (api-agent, pr-code, content): see references/examples.md
