probe

name	probe
description	Safe-to-fail experiment for Complex domain problems where cause-effect is only visible in retrospect. Two-phase: foreground qualify → background probe → sense result. Use when: probe, safe-to-fail, test hypothesis, experiment with hypothesis, Complex domain with hypothesis. NOT for brainstorming (use brainstorm) or known cause-effect (use investigate).
allowed-tools	AskUserQuestion, Read, Glob, Grep, WebSearch, WebFetch, Write, Bash, Task
model	opus
context	main
argument-hint	<hypothesis to probe>
cynefin-domain	complex
cynefin-verb	probe

Probe

Safe-to-fail experiment in Complex domain. Cause-effect only visible in retrospect — probe to sense patterns, not to prove.

Probing: $ARGUMENTS

Check for handoff context: if $ARGUMENTS references a probe-to-probe-llm.md file, load it before Phase 1 — carried context accelerates qualification.

⚠️ AskUserQuestion Guard

CRITICAL: After EVERY AskUserQuestion call, check if answers are empty/blank. Known Claude Code bug: outside Plan Mode, AskUserQuestion silently returns empty answers without showing UI.

If answers are empty: DO NOT proceed with assumptions. Instead:

1. Output: "⚠️ Questions didn't display (known Claude Code bug outside Plan Mode)."
2. Present the options as a numbered text list and ask user to reply with their choice number.
3. WAIT for user reply before continuing.

Phase 1: Qualify (foreground — MANDATORY)

ENTRY GATE: Phase 2 does not start until Phase 1 is complete. No bypass path exists.

1.1 Parse hypothesis

Extract from $ARGUMENTS or handoff context:

• Hypothesis statement (what you believe might be true)
• Enabling constraints already known (carry forward from prior cycles — do NOT rediscover)
• Confirm/refute criteria already defined (carry forward, update if refined)

If no hypothesis present: AskUserQuestion — ask user to state the hypothesis. Do not proceed without one.

1.2 Identify enabling constraints

Bounds without prescribing path:

• Scope: time, access, reversibility boundary
• Immutable: production systems, data integrity, user-facing state
• Variable: what can be freely changed within experiment

Carry forward from prior cycles unchanged unless explicitly updated.

1.3 Define confirm/refute criteria

Before running: define observable signals. For each criterion:

• Confirmed: observable evidence that supports the hypothesis
• Refuted: observable evidence that contradicts the hypothesis
• Surprise: unexpected result that suggests a different hypothesis

Criteria must be defined before Phase 2 executes. Gate on this.

1.4 Present probe plan

Output:

🔬 Probe → [constraints] → [steps] → [expected patterns] → [confirm/refute criteria] → GATE

Probe type (see reference.md): architecture | library | prompt | integration | design

1.5 Entry gate

AskUserQuestion — one call:

• "Proceed with probe? [Yes / Revise hypothesis / Revise criteria / Abort]"

On confirm: Phase 2 executes. On anything else: loop back to 1.1–1.4.

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Phase 2: Execute (background)

Configuration: isolation: worktree + run_in_background: true

Runs only after Phase 1 entry gate passes.

2.1 Execute probe steps

Run the experiment as defined in Phase 1. Prefer minimal, reversible actions. Gate frequency is SPARSE — enabling constraints bound the agent, not human micromanagement.

2.2 Sense patterns

Observe results against confirm/refute criteria:

• What signal emerged?
• What was unexpected?
• What constraints were discovered during execution?

2.3 Persist Thinking Artifact ⚠️ MANDATORY

MUST execute before exit gate. DO NOT skip. DO NOT wait for user to ask.

Write probe result to $PRAXIS_DIR/thinking/probes/{project}/{date}-{slug}-llm.md.

{project} = current project folder name (e.g., agent-skills, gtd-pcm). Create $PRAXIS_DIR/thinking/probes/{project}/ if missing.

Collision handling: If filename exists, append sequence: {date}-{slug}-2-llm.md, {date}-{slug}-3-llm.md, etc. First write gets clean name.

Guard: If $PRAXIS_DIR is unset, warn user and skip artifact persistence: ⚠️ $PRAXIS_DIR not set — artifact not persisted. Set via: export PRAXIS_DIR="$HOME/dev/praxis"

Content: hypothesis + enabling constraints + steps taken + observations + sensed patterns + result classification.

2.4 Exit gate

Classify result: confirmed | refuted | partial | surprise

Produce B4-compatible handoff:

Result	When	Transition	Template
confirmed	Hypothesis holds	Complex → Complicated	probe-to-investigate-llm.md
partial (enough signal)	Some evidence, ready for expert analysis	Complex → Complicated	probe-to-investigate-llm.md
partial (need another angle)	Some evidence, hypothesis needs sharpening	Complex → Complex (re-probe)	probe-to-probe-llm.md
refuted / surprise	Hypothesis failed or unexpected result	Complex → Complex (brainstorm)	probe-to-brainstorm-llm.md

Handoff token budget: target 300 tokens inline, flex 200-500, hard cap 600. References to $PRAXIS_DIR/thinking files do not count toward cap.

Self-transition: if result is partial and hypothesis can be sharpened, re-invoke /probe via probe-to-probe-llm.md with accumulated context. Prior cycles compressed to 200 tokens at 800-token accumulated cap.

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Refs

• reference.md — probe types, observability format, input quality table
• probe-to-investigate-llm.md — handoff: confirmed/partial → Complicated
• probe-to-brainstorm-llm.md — handoff: refuted/surprise → Complex (brainstorm)
• probe-to-probe-llm.md — handoff: partial → Complex (self-transition)