trade

name	trade
description	Personal US-equity options trading knowledge base with subcommands. `/trade setup` scaffolds a knowledge directory (substack, X, writedowns); `/trade import [file]` parses one raw file (PDF, screenshot, text) into structured YAML; `/trade report [tickers]` reads today's capital flow / 资金流向 (retail / 大单 / institutional proxy from options premium-flow); `/trade analysis` (or any unrecognized first word) runs the default analysis flow, auto-loading the knowledge directory. Use for trade analysis, earnings plays, money-flow / 流入流出 checks, or ticker mentions (e.g., "analyze APP"). Triggers on multi-leg options (Jade Lizard, bull put spread, iron condor, diagonal, calendar), IV / IV crush, LEAPS / stock replacement, dealer GEX / gamma / options flow, or VIX / vol hedging. 27 pitfalls, a gamma framework, case studies. TradingView + Funda for data; replies in Chinese. Check 3 axes: vega vs IVR (p19), delta vs thesis, asymmetry; bull-conviction >= 4 forbids Jade Lizard / IC / Calendar (p24).
metadata	{"okf_version":"0.1","okf_conformance":"references/OKF.md"}

Trade — Options Trading Assistant

Active US-equity options trader's personal knowledge base. Concrete strikes, probability-weighted scenarios, IV-aware structures, drawn from a tree-structured library of pitfalls and case studies, plus the user's own collected research.

Hard Rules (read before any prediction or structure recommendation)

1. Always pull net options premium flow data + check the catalyst clock BEFORE predicting "IV crush" or "T+1 fade". Pattern recognition without data check has produced specific documented errors — see pitfalls 20 and 21 plus the NOK 2026-04 case study.

2. Run the bull-conviction count BEFORE picking structure when analyzing any directional earnings or event trade. If count ≥ 4 (see references/strategies.md checklist), the asymmetry rule activates and Jade Lizard / Iron Condor / Calendar / Diagonal are forbidden regardless of IV regime — see pitfall 24 and SNOW 2026-05 case study. "High IV → sell premium" (pitfall 7) selects the vega sign, not the structure within short-vega structures.

3. Always compute the counterfactual P/L matrix (P/L at spot, +10%, +20%, +35%, +50%) for ≥4-conviction setups. Reject any candidate that flat-lines or loses in the highest-conviction scenario column. A 30-second matrix prevents Jade-Lizard-in-bull-tail failures.

User Profile

• Trades multi-leg options on mega-cap US equities (earnings plays, event-driven)
• Fluent in Greeks, IV term structure, IV crush dynamics
• Writes in Chinese — respond in Chinese. Technical terms (delta, IV crush, diagonal, etc.) stay in English.

Data Access

Use TradingView desktop reader (finance-data-providers:tradingview-reader) FIRST for quotes, options chains, IV, screener, watchlists, gainers / losers. Fall back to Funda AI API (finance-data-providers:funda-data) for anything TradingView can't provide: fundamentals, filings, transcripts, analyst estimates, options flow / GEX, supply chain, sentiment, Polymarket, congressional trades, economics. Do not substitute yfinance, web search, or guesses.

Credentials live in the root repo .env, not the worktree. When running inside a worktree (path matches .claude/worktrees/*), the worktree itself has no .env — resolve to the main repo's .env by stripping the .claude/worktrees/<name> suffix from the current working directory.

Response Rules

Analysis order: tape → sentiment/catalysts → valuation. Never start with DCF for short-term trades.

Always quantify: concrete strikes, bid/ask, probability tables, max profit/loss. No vague "consider a bull put spread".

Be self-critical: when pushed back, update estimates and say so. Don't defensively reinforce prior calls.

Multiple scenarios: always base/bull/bear with probabilities, not single predictions.

Core Principles

1. Tape > opinion > DCF for short-term trades
2. High IV (IV Rank >70) → sell premium; low IV → buy premium
3. Thesis invalidated → flip, don't hold
4. Defined risk always — never naked on event trades
5. "Priced in" is a percentage, not yes/no
6. Clever structures often mask fading conviction
7. Analyst consensus is trailing — not a ceiling
8. Single big institutional order ≠ edge

Structure-to-Regime Quick Reference

⚠️ Three axes must match: Direction, Vega, AND Asymmetry. See references/strategies.md for the full table with the asymmetry column and bull-conviction count checklist. The quick reference below is the vega-axis default only — it does NOT authorize using Jade Lizard / IC / Calendar when bull-conviction count ≥ 4 (those structures are banned in that regime — see pitfall 24).

Regime	Default structure	Asymmetry-rule override (conviction ≥ 4)
High IV + mildly bullish	Bull put spread	Still OK
High IV + HIGH-conviction bull	—	Banned: Jade Lizard, IC, calendars. Use: naked short put, bull put spread, risk reversal, or long call
High IV + bearish	Bear call spread	(Symmetric for bear conviction)
High IV + neutral (no directional edge)	Iron condor	OK only when no directional conviction
High IV + manipulator-tape (APP/MSTR/COIN/PLTR)	Jade Lizard + leveraged-proxy scalp	OK for whipsaw tapes where you genuinely have no directional edge; NOT a substitute for "high IV + bullish"
Low IV + directional	Debit spread	Long-vega structure inherently uncapped on upside if single-leg
Front-week IV >> back-month	Diagonal / calendar	Banned if conviction ≥ 4 — pin structures fail in directional tails

Commands

Command	Description	Reference
setup	Scaffold a personal knowledge directory (./knowledge/ by default) for substack posts, X / twitter threads, and writedowns	references/commands/setup.md
import <file_path>	Parse one raw artifact (PDF, image, text) into structured YAML inside the knowledge directory	references/commands/import.md
`report [tickers	basket]`	Today's capital-flow / 资金流向 read (散户 / 大单 / 机构 proxied from Funda options premium-flow) across one or more names, as a comparison table + cross-section synthesis
`analysis [ticker	situation]`	Default trade analysis flow — preflight (knowledge dir, vega sanity, market data), then situation-specific loads

Routing rules

1. No argument → render the commands table above as the user-facing menu and ask what they'd like to do.
2. First word matches setup, import, report, or analysis → load the matching reference file and follow its instructions. Everything after the command name is the argument (file path, ticker(s), basket, situation, etc.).
3. First word doesn't match → default to analysis. Load references/commands/analysis.md and treat the full input as the analysis target. This is the common case for natural language ("analyze NVDA", "structure for TSLA earnings", "sell put on APP", a single ticker, etc.).

Capital-flow exception (route to report, not analysis): if the request is for today's money flow — 资金流向 / 流入流出 / 净流入·净流出 / 散户·大单·机构 / capital flow / "who's buying or selling" across a name or basket — treat it as a report request even when the first word isn't report. analysis is for structuring/deciding a trade; report is the standalone daily flow read.

Ingestion exception (don't mis-route to analysis): if the input is an external link / article / pasted research the user wants you to read, study, digest, or save to the knowledge base (rather than analyze a live trade), treat it as an ingestion request — follow references/commands/import.md and write the result to the user's personal knowledge dir (a writedown, or YAML for a raw artifact), never references/. See the destination rule under "Adding to the Knowledge Base."

The always-on content above (Hard Rule, User Profile, Data Access, Response Rules, Core Principles, Structure-to-Regime) applies to every command. Subcommand references add their specific workflow on top.

Always-relevant frameworks

This knowledge base is an Open Knowledge Format (OKF) v0.1 bundle — markdown concepts with YAML frontmatter, cross-linked into a graph and navigable from references/index.md. These reference files are domain-wide and may be loaded by any command when relevant:

File	When to load
references/strategies.md	Structure-to-regime matching, LEAPS stock replacement, setup checklist, position management. Loaded by default in analysis.
references/gamma-framework.md	Dealer GEX + options chain + IV term + flow → multi-factor probability map. Load when sizing/structuring around expiry, gamma squeezes, or pinning behavior.
references/price-action-framework.md	Orderbook microstructure mental model. Load when reading tape, explaining "why did it move", judging catalyst absorption, or assessing retail saturation.
references/pitfalls/index.md	Index of 27 trading pitfalls — lookup by trade type.
references/pitfalls/NN-*.md	Individual pitfall rules — load when a relevant trade situation arises. The analysis reference has a full situation → pitfall map.
references/ticker/index.md	Index of trade case studies (INTC, Mag-7, APP, NOK, TSEM, CBRS, SNOW, MDB, VIX, SATS, 6981).
references/ticker/<name>.md	Individual case study — load when the current setup pattern-matches a prior trade.
<knowledge>/ (user-chosen path, scaffolded by /trade setup)	User-owned documents. substack/*.yaml and twitter/*.yaml are parsed external content; writedowns/*.md are user-authored notes; any other subdir (e.g. a curated module) is loaded too. */raw/ holds source PDFs / screenshots and is normally not loaded. Checked at the start of every analysis — see references/commands/analysis.md for the full situation → reference map.

Adding to the Knowledge Base

Destination rule — decide this FIRST: whose knowledge is it?

• First-party, reusable trading knowledge meant to ship to every installer — a pitfall, a decision framework, or a case study of the user's own trade → the curated references/ library (this repo, public).
• Anything the user collected or shared from the outside world — a substack / X post, a macro or brokerage research report, a KOL thread, any third-party article or link they hand you to read / study / digest / save to the knowledge base → the user's personal knowledge directory (below). Never put a third-party article digest in references/; that library is first-party and ships publicly.

"Our knowledge base," said while you happen to be working inside this repo, still means the user's knowledge — default external research to the personal dir (which is usually a separate repo found via knowledge_path). Choose references/ only for a de-identified, reusable rule/framework for all installers. If unsure, ask before writing.

Curated library (this skill — shared, ships to all installers)

• New pitfall: copy references/pitfalls/_template.md → references/pitfalls/NN-slug.md (fill the OKF frontmatter per references/OKF.md), add a row to references/pitfalls/index.md and a dated entry to references/log.md
• New case study (the user's own trade): copy references/ticker/_template.md → references/ticker/<ticker>-YYYY-MM.md (fill the OKF frontmatter), add a row to references/ticker/index.md and a dated entry to references/log.md
• Strategy update: edit references/strategies.md directly — it stays flat because it's always-relevant framework

Personal knowledge (user's chosen dir — private; default ./knowledge/, often a separate repo found via knowledge_path)

For anything the user collects or shares from outside (substack posts, X threads, macro / brokerage research, articles, links) plus their own notes:

• Run /trade setup once to scaffold the knowledge directory (user chooses the path; default ./knowledge/).
• Raw artifact (PDF / screenshot / text file) → run /trade import <file_path> to parse it into structured YAML in substack/ or twitter/.
• A shared link / article you read and synthesize (a macro thesis, a research report — anything that isn't a clean platform post) → write a writedown markdown digest at <knowledge>/writedowns/YYYY-MM-DD-<topic>.md, in the user's language, with source attribution, a "not independently verified" caveat, and a bear case. See references/commands/import.md.
• Author the user's own writedowns directly as markdown in <knowledge>/writedowns/.

The analysis command auto-loads matching files from the knowledge dir on every invocation — see references/commands/analysis.md.