market-sizing

name	market-sizing
description	Estimate the size of a market using top-down and bottom-up methods with explicit methodology. Writes a conforming report (per report-conventions) to <engagement_dir>/market-sizing/<market-slug>.md. Use when you need a defensible TAM/SAM/SOM figure for a business plan, pitch, or investment decision.
argument-hint	<market to size, with geography and buyer type if known> [engagement_dir]
user-invocable	true
allowed-tools	WebSearch, WebFetch, Read, Write, Bash

Produce a market sizing estimate for the named market and write a conforming report with explicit methodology.

Step 0: Resolve arguments

Parse $ARGUMENTS as <market description> [engagement_dir]. Trailing path-shaped token is the engagement directory; otherwise default to pwd. Resolve to an absolute path.

Step 1: Compute the output path

Subject slug: kebab-case, lowercase, ASCII (per report-conventions). Use the most specific phrase that identifies the market.

Examples:

• Australian payroll software for SMBs → australian-payroll-software-smb
• Global cloud security → global-cloud-security

Output path: $ENG/market-sizing/<slug>.md

If a file already exists at that path, ask before overwriting (overwrite / write a -2 sibling / abort).

Step 2: Stage the report from the template

mkdir -p "$ENG/market-sizing"
cp "${CLAUDE_PLUGIN_ROOT}/templates/market-sizing.md" "$ENG/market-sizing/<slug>.md"

Replace placeholders in frontmatter:

Placeholder	Replace with
{SUBJECT}	The market description as provided
{SUBTITLE}	Engagement directory basename, title-cased; drop the line if no useful inference
{DATE}	Today's ISO date

Step 3: Define the market

Write into the Market definition section of the staged file. A market size without a definition is a number without meaning. Establish:

• Buyer: who is paying? (individual, SMB, enterprise, government department)
• Purchase unit: what are they buying? (subscription, one-time, services engagement)
• Geography: global, country-level, or regional?
• Time horizon: current year, or a projected year?

State these assumptions explicitly. Different assumptions produce wildly different numbers — the definition IS the methodology.

Step 4: Top-down estimate

Find analyst estimates from credible sources:

• Gartner — technology markets
• IDC — technology markets
• Grand View Research — broad industry coverage
• IBISWorld — AU industry reports specifically (ibisworld.com/au)
• ABS — AU macro/industry data
• Stats NZ — NZ industry data

For each estimate: note the specific report title, year published, and the exact figure cited. Never round-trip a sourced figure without the original citation.

Record findings in the Top-down estimate section and add the row to the Size estimates table.

If no analyst report exists for this specific market, note it and proceed to bottom-up.

Step 5: Bottom-up estimate

Build independently from first principles. Write into the Bottom-up estimate section:

1. Estimate addressable customer count — how many potential buyers exist? (Use industry association data, government statistics, LinkedIn company size filters as proxies)
2. Estimate average annual spend — what does a typical buyer spend? (Use public pricing, customer testimonials, analyst benchmarks)
3. Apply realistic penetration — what share could be captured at maturity? (Comparable market penetration rates from analogous markets)

Show the calculation explicitly: N customers × $X avg spend × Y% penetration = $Z

Add the row to the Size estimates table.

Step 6: Reconcile

Do the top-down and bottom-up figures agree within 2x?

• Yes: record both, note the alignment as confidence signal
• No: explain the variance. Common reasons: different market definitions, different geographies, different buyer segmentation. Don't average them — resolve the discrepancy

Write the reconciliation into the Reconciliation section.

Step 7: Growth rate

Find CAGR from:

• Analyst report projections (preferred)
• Public company revenue growth rates in the space (proxy — available from earnings reports)
• VC/PE investment velocity as a leading signal

Note the source and the period it covers. Write into the Growth rate section.

Step 8: Finalise the report

• Set the Confidence rating (High / Medium / Low) with reasoning.
• Replace placeholder source rows with actual sources, tagged with tier per source-quality.
• Set status: Final once complete; optionally set confidence: 0-4.

Rules

• A market size without methodology is a guess wearing a number's clothes. Always show the working.
• Label all estimates as estimates. Never present a number as fact unless it comes from a primary regulatory or government source.
• Top-down and bottom-up must both be attempted. If one genuinely can't be done, explain why.
• Don't average unreconciled top-down and bottom-up figures. Diagnose the gap instead.
• Distinguish TAM (total addressable), SAM (serviceable addressable), and SOM (serviceable obtainable) if the question calls for it. If not asked, default to TAM and state what's included.
• One file per invocation. Don't write findings inline into chat.

Output

A single line: the absolute path to the written report.