market-analysis

name	market-analysis
description	Market sizing, epidemiology, and commercial opportunity assessment for drug development. Use for market forecasts, opportunity evaluation, and investment decisions. Keywords: market, epidemiology, prevalence, forecast, sizing, opportunity
category	Market Analysis
tags	["market","epidemiology","forecast","sizing","commercial"]
version	1.0.0
author	Drug Discovery Team
dependencies	["gbd-database","ihme-database","who-database"]

Market Analysis Skill

Epidemiology and market opportunity assessment for drug development.

Quick Start

/market NSCLC
/market-forecast "EGFR inhibitor" --region China
/epi lung cancer --country US
Analyze market opportunity for KRAS G12C inhibitors

What's Included

Section	Description	Data Source
Epidemiology	Prevalence, incidence, mortality	GBD, IHME, WHO
Patient Population	Diagnosed, treatable, addressable	Derived
Market Sizing	Current and forecasted market	Multi-source
Competitive Market	Branded/generic split	Claims data
Pricing Analysis	Price benchmarks	Payers, registries
Access & Reimbursement	Coverage by country	HTA agencies

Output Structure

# Market Analysis: EGFR-Mutated NSCLC

## Executive Summary
**Total Addressable Market**: $12.3B globally (2024)
**Growth Rate**: 8.5% CAGR to 2030
**Key Drivers**: Increased testing, targeted therapies, emerging markets
**Barriers**: Generic competition, resistance mechanisms

## Epidemiology

### Global Burden
| Metric | Value | Source |
|--------|-------|--------|
| New Cases (2024) | 2.2M | GBD 2024 |
| Prevalence | 3.8M | IHME 2024 |
| Deaths | 1.8M | WHO 2024 |
| EGFR Mutation Rate | 15-20% | Literature |

### By Region
| Region | New Cases | EGFR+ | Treatable |
|--------|-----------|------|----------|
| China | 850K | 150K | 100K |
| US | 235K | 42K | 38K |
| EU | 320K | 55K | 48K |
| Japan | 95K | 18K | 17K |

## Patient Flow Funnel

New NSCLC Cases: 2,200,000 ↓ (80% tested) EGFR Tested: 1,760,000 ↓ (17% positive) EGFR Positive: 300,000 ↓ (70% treatment-eligible) Treatable Population: 210,000 ↓ (80% access) Addressable Market: 168,000

## Market Sizing

### Current Market (2024)
| Segment | Patients | Price/Patient | Market |
|---------|----------|---------------|--------|
| 1st-line TKI | 90K | $80,000 | $7.2B |
| 2nd-line TKI | 35K | $60,000 | $2.1B |
| 3rd-line TKI | 30K | $120,000 | $3.6B |
| Chemo + | 13K | $30,000 | $0.4B |
| **Total** | **168K** | - | **$13.3B** |

### Forecast to 2030
| Year | Addressable | Price/Patient | Market |
|------|-------------|---------------|--------|
| 2024 | 168K | $79K | $13.3B |
| 2025 | 178K | $78K | $13.9B |
| 2026 | 188K | $77K | $14.5B |
| 2027 | 198K | $76K | $15.0B |
| 2028 | 208K | $75K | $15.6B |
| 2029 | 218K | $74K | $16.1B |
| 2030 | 228K | $73K | $16.6B |

**CAGR**: 4.3% (volume), 3.8% (value)

## Competitive Market

### Market Share (2024)
| Drug | Share | Sales |
|------|-------|-------|
| Osimertinib | 65% | $8.6B |
| Erlotinib | 10% | $1.3B |
| Gefitinib | 8% | $1.1B |
| Afatinib | 5% | $0.7B |
| Others | 12% | $1.6B |

### Generic Impact
| Year | Generic Erosion | Market Impact |
|------|-----------------|---------------|
| 2024 | 5% | Erlotinib US |
| 2025 | 15% | Gefitinib EU |
| 2026 | 25% | 1st-gen overall |
| 2027+ | 40% | Significant |

## Pricing Analysis

### Price Benchmarks by Country
| Country | Annual Price | Relative to US |
|---------|--------------|-----------------|
| US | $120K | 100% |
| Germany | $85K | 71% |
| China | $45K | 38% |
| Japan | $70K | 58% |
| UK | $65K | 54% |

### Price Trend
**Direction:** Gradual decline due to:
- Generic competition
- HTA pressure
- Value-based pricing
- Emerging market discounts

## Access & Reimbursement

### Coverage by Major Markets
| Country | Public Coverage | Criteria | Restrictions |
|----------|-----------------|----------|-------------|
| US | Medicare/Medicaid | EGFR+ | Prior auth |
| Germany | Statutory | EGFR+ | Line-specific |
| China | Basic Insurance | EGFR+ | Local reimbursement |
| Japan | National | EGFR+ | D.I.N. approval |

## Key Opportunities
1. **Untested regions**: Africa, SE Asia testing <40%
2. **Resistance market**: 30-40% develop resistance
3. **Adjuvant setting**: Expanding indication
4. **Combination therapies**: Chemo +, anti-angiogenic

## Key Risks
1. **Generic erosion**: 1st-gen largely generic
2. **Resistance limits**: C797S challenges
3. **Pricing pressure**: HTA-driven discounts
4. **New competition**: 4th-gen in development

Examples

Disease Market

/market NSCLC
/market-forecast "colorectal cancer" --region global

Drug Market

/market "EGFR inhibitors" --forecast 10years
Analyze market size for KRAS G12C drugs

Epidemiology

/epi lung cancer --country China
/epi "solid tumors" --age 65+

Pricing Analysis

/market oncology drugs --pricing --compare US,EU,CN
Analyze TKI pricing across Asia

Running Scripts

# Market sizing
python scripts/market_analysis.py --condition "NSCLC" --target "EGFR" -o market.json

# Epidemiology data
python scripts/epi_fetch.py --cancer "lung" --demographics -o epi.json

# Price comparison
python scripts/price_analysis.py --drug "osimertinib" --countries US,CN,JP,EU

# Forecast model
python scripts/forecast.py --historical 2018-2024 --forecast 2025-2030

Requirements

pip install requests pandas numpy

Additional Resources

• GBD Data
• IHME Resources
• Market Sizing Methodology

Best Practices

1. Define funnel clearly: incidence → tested → positive → treated
2. Use multiple sources: Cross-reference epidemiology
3. Check testing rates: Vary significantly by region
4. Consider generics: Impact on market size
5. Validate pricing: Use real-world price data

Common Pitfalls

Pitfall	Solution
Incidence ≠ prevalence	Distinguish clearly
Ignoring testing rates	Affects addressable market
Static pricing	Prices decline over time
Overestimating access	Real-world access <100%
Ignoring generics	Generic impact grows over time