evaluate-outreach

name	evaluate-outreach
description	Score a sent outreach cycle (cold email / LinkedIn DM / sequence) from real reply data inside an existing eval loop — one channel + segment per cycle, verdict + reply-quality diagnosis with a deliverability + compliance gate. Not for writing the outreach (use write-outreach), organic-post performance (use evaluate-content), paid-ad performance (use evaluate-ad), or scaffolding the loop (use run-pipeline).
argument-hint	[loop slug or path] [channel+segment] [primary metric]
allowed-tools	Read Write Edit Grep Glob Bash WebSearch WebFetch
metadata	{"version":"1.0.1","budget":"standard","estimated-cost":"$0.75-1.50"}

Outreach Eval — Orchestrator

Evaluation skill. Converts sent outreach evidence into a cycle snapshot + ledger row + narrowly-scoped next action inside an existing eval loop. One channel + segment per cycle; reply quality drives the verdict, and a deliverability/compliance red flag blocks a keep no matter how good the replies look.

Core Question: "Did this outreach cycle, on its channel + segment, earn meaningful replies (positive / meeting-booked / qualified-lead) without burning deliverability or breaking compliance — enough to keep / discard / watch / block — and what should the next write-outreach cycle know?"

Why, methodology, history: references/playbook.md [PLAYBOOK]. Capability metadata (route triggers, prerequisites, load map): routing.yaml.

Critical Gates

1. Existing eval loop required. program.md + context.md absent → NEEDS_CONTEXT, recommend /run-pipeline. This skill does not create loops.
2. Sent + measured outreach only. The sequence actually went out and reply/bounce data exists. A draft → NEEDS_CONTEXT, route to write-outreach. This skill scores what shipped, not a draft.
3. Source write-outreach artifact required. The sequence being scored (docs/forsvn/artifacts/marketing/write-outreach/[channel]-[date]-[slug].md). Absent or unreadable → BLOCKED.
4. One channel + segment per cycle. email / linkedin-dm / twitter-dm + one ICP segment. Cross-channel or cross-segment blending is contamination → secondary channels/segments are context only, never verdict input.
5. No fabricated reply data. Unknown values stay unknown. Reply categories, bounce, and meetings must trace to a named tool (Instantly / Smartlead / Apollo / lemlist / CRM / manual export).
6. Deliverability + compliance evidence required. Bounce rate, spam-complaint rate, sender reputation, and opt-out/CAN-SPAM/GDPR/platform-ToS compliance. A deliverability or compliance red flag blocks a keep (Critic Hard Fail #12).
7. Attribution confidence must be explicit. Sample size (sends), list quality/freshness, sequence step attributed, confounders (sender warmup, seasonality, list source, domain age), and confidence: high | medium | low | blocked.
8. Evaluation does not write outreach. Recommend changes; route copy/sequence authorship to write-outreach, list/targeting questions to research-icp.

Responsibility Split

/run-pipeline owns loop setup + program.md / context.md / results.tsv schema + durable learnings. This skill owns post-send reply-quality + deliverability snapshots scored against one channel + segment. /write-outreach owns next-cycle copy. /research-icp owns list/targeting. /evaluate-content + /evaluate-ad own their lanes.

Inputs

Required: loop slug/path · channel + segment tag (email · linkedin-dm · twitter-dm + ICP segment) · source write-outreach artifact (docs/forsvn/artifacts/marketing/write-outreach/[channel]-[date]-[slug].md) · measurement window · sends (sample-size floor) · primary metric value + source (positive-reply rate · meeting-booked rate · qualified-lead rate).

Recommended: baseline/prior-cycle row · reply breakdown (positive / meeting-booked / qualified vs neutral / negative / auto-reply / unsubscribe) · deliverability data (bounce rate, spam-complaint rate, sender reputation) · compliance status (opt-out honored, CAN-SPAM/GDPR/ToS) · sequence-step attribution (which step earned the reply) · guardrails from program.md.

Outputs

.forsvn/loops/[slug]/evals/YYYY-MM-DD-cycle-N.md + append one row to results.tsv via bun scripts/append-loop-result.ts (8-col helper) + update learnings.md ONLY for high-confidence keep/discard lessons (critic-gated) + run bun scripts/manifest-sync.ts.

Agent Manifest + Dispatch

4 sub-agents: Layer 1 parallel (Metric Ingest + Diagnosis) → Layer 2 (Recommendation) → Layer 3 (Critic). Critic FAIL → revise once; still FAIL → no ledger row + BLOCKED. Full agent table + per-layer dispatch + 7-dim rubric: references/agent-manifest.md. Domain rubric: references/rubric.md. Shared frame: references/_shared/evaluation-loop-rubric.md.

Pre-Dispatch

Canonical: references/_shared/pre-dispatch-protocol.md + references/_shared/eval-loop-spec.md. Hard-blocks (BEFORE Cold Start): missing program.md/context.md → NEEDS_CONTEXT + /run-pipeline; outreach is a draft (not sent) → NEEDS_CONTEXT + /write-outreach; no reply evidence OR missing channel+segment tag → BLOCKED; no deliverability/compliance evidence → BLOCKED; custom 10+ col results.tsv → warn + hand-edit. Cold Start: 6 bundled questions (loop · channel+segment · source write-outreach artifact path · window · primary metric value/baseline · sends + reply breakdown + deliverability/compliance). Full read-order + templates + --fast behavior: references/procedures/pre-dispatch.md [PROCEDURE]. Session execution profile (single-vs-multi): inherit per references/_shared/execution-policy.md.

Artifact Contract

• Path: .forsvn/loops/[slug]/evals/YYYY-MM-DD-cycle-N.md. Lifecycle: evaluation.
• Frontmatter (10 fields): skill / version / date / status / summary / purpose / lifecycle / use_when / do_not_use_when / upstream / downstream + provenance (input_artifacts = source write-outreach artifact + research/icp-research.md + brand/BRAND.md; output_eval: null).
• Body sections (8): Title · Verdict · Evidence (6-col table) · What Changed This Cycle · Diagnosis (Reply-Quality Signals + Deliverability & Compliance + Cross-Channel Context + Confounders) · Next Cycle Recommendation · Results Row (8-col TSV) · Learning Promotion. Verdict block must name the channel + segment explicitly (Gate 4); Evidence table scopes to that channel.
• Results Row (8 cols): cycle date artifact primary_metric value baseline status description. status ∈ keep|discard|watch|blocked (Critic Hard Fail otherwise); description includes the channel + segment tag.
• Cross-stack contract: consumed by future outreach-eval cycles (trend) + write-outreach --rev=N+1 (hypothesis seeding) + research-icp (list signal) + human reviewers. Schema changes require atomic update across references/_shared/eval-loop-spec.md + downstream callers.

Full template + Evidence/Reply-Quality/Deliverability/Results/Learning formats + helper invocation: references/format-conventions.md [PROCEDURE].

Results Row Helper

bun scripts/append-loop-result.ts "<loop slug>" \
  --artifact evals/YYYY-MM-DD-cycle-N.md \
  --metric "<primary metric>" --value "<current>" --baseline "<baseline>" \
  --status "<keep|discard|watch|blocked>" --description "<one sentence — include channel + segment>"

Do not append on Critic FAIL — return BLOCKED instead.

Critic Override Protocol

Operator ships despite critic FAIL (or accepts pass-with-concerns) — log BEFORE writing artifact or ledger row: bun scripts/log-critic-override.ts --skill evaluate-outreach …. Three overrides → rubric-revision escalation. An override never promotes a contested cycle to keep; a no-override FAIL still returns BLOCKED. Full protocol: references/_shared/critic-override-protocol.md [PROCEDURE].

Anti-Patterns

references/anti-patterns.md [ANTI-PATTERN] — outreach-eval rows + 4 cross-cutting marketing-stack rows. Most common: open-rate vanity read as success (Gate 6 + Critic "Reply-Quality Discrimination"), a reply-winning sequence that is burning the domain or breaking opt-out (Critic "Deliverability & Compliance"), cross-channel contamination of the verdict (Gate 4), scope drift to write-outreach authorship (Gate 8 + Critic "Decision Discipline").

Worked Example

Outreach cycle (reply quality acceptable, deliverability/compliance gate forces watch): references/examples/outreach-eval-cycle-walkthrough.md.

Durable Rules (protected)

Completion Status

• DONE — eval artifact written, ledger row appended, critic PASS.
• DONE_WITH_CONCERNS — artifact + row written, but confidence low/medium or confounders material.
• NEEDS_CONTEXT — missing loop, source write-outreach artifact, channel+segment tag, reply evidence, or deliverability/compliance data; OR the outreach is a draft (route to write-outreach).
• BLOCKED — contradictory data, no reply evidence, filesystem failure, or critic failed after revision.

References

• references/{playbook, agent-manifest, rubric, format-conventions, anti-patterns}.md + procedures/{pre-dispatch, dispatch-mechanics}.md
• references/_shared/{eval-loop-spec, evaluation-loop-rubric, pre-dispatch-protocol, critic-override-protocol, quality-dashboard-spec}.md
• Siblings: write-outreach (downstream), research-icp (list/targeting), run-pipeline (loop scaffolding), evaluate-{content, ad, asset, campaign} (sibling lanes)