nixtla-release-validation

name	nixtla-release-validation
description	Multi-phase release validation workflow for nixtla. Analyzes git changes, predicts test impact, assesses risk, runs pytest verification, provides go/no-go recommendation. Trigger: "validate release", "run release validation", "check release readiness"
allowed-tools	Read, Write, Bash, Task
version	1.0.0
license	MIT
author	Jeremy Longshore <[e-mail]>

Nixtla Release Validation Workflow

Automated pre-release validation using multi-phase test harness pattern with empirical verification.

Purpose

Validate nixtla releases (e.g., v1.7.0 → v1.8.0) before shipping by analyzing changes, predicting impact, running tests, and providing evidence-based go/no-go recommendation.

Overview

This workflow implements the 5-phase validated workflow pattern:

1. Change Analysis - Git diff, CHANGELOG, modified files → structured change list
2. Test Impact Prediction - For each change, predict which tests might fail
3. Risk Assessment - Categorize changes, estimate user impact
4. Verification (Critical) - Run pytest suite, compare predictions vs reality
5. Go/No-Go Recommendation - Synthesize findings, output release notes

Phase 4 is the critical phase - it runs actual scripts to verify Phase 2 predictions.

Prerequisites

• Git repository with tagged releases
• Python 3.9+ with pytest installed
• jq for JSON processing
• Write access to 002-workspaces/test-harness-lab/skills/nixtla-release-validation/reports/

Instructions

Step 1: Create Session Directory

cd 002-workspaces/test-harness-lab/skills/nixtla-release-validation
TIMESTAMP=$(date +%Y%m%d_%H%M%S)
SESSION_DIR="reports/${TIMESTAMP}"
mkdir -p "${SESSION_DIR}"

Step 2: Run Phase 1 - Change Analysis

Task: Spawn Phase 1 agent

Input JSON:

{
  "session_dir": "<SESSION_DIR>",
  "from_version": "v1.7.0",
  "to_version": "v1.8.0",
  "repo_path": "/home/jeremy/000-projects/nixtla"
}

Expected Output: <SESSION_DIR>/phase1-change-analysis.json

{
  "metadata": {
    "phase": 1,
    "timestamp": "2025-12-22T17:00:00Z"
  },
  "changes": {
    "changed_files": ["src/forecast.py", "tests/test_forecast.py"],
    "changed_apis": ["forecast()", "fit()"],
    "breaking_changes": ["forecast() now requires 'freq' parameter"],
    "new_features": ["Added anomaly detection"]
  }
}

Step 3: Run Phase 2 - Test Impact Prediction

Task: Spawn Phase 2 agent

Input JSON:

{
  "session_dir": "<SESSION_DIR>",
  "phase1_output": "<SESSION_DIR>/phase1-change-analysis.json"
}

Expected Output: <SESSION_DIR>/phase2-test-predictions.json

{
  "metadata": {
    "phase": 2,
    "timestamp": "2025-12-22T17:05:00Z"
  },
  "test_predictions": [
    {
      "change": "Modified forecast() signature",
      "affected_tests": ["test_forecast_basic", "test_forecast_with_exog"],
      "reason": "Function signature changed, existing calls will fail"
    }
  ]
}

Step 4: Run Phase 3 - Risk Assessment

Task: Spawn Phase 3 agent

Input JSON:

{
  "session_dir": "<SESSION_DIR>",
  "phase1_output": "<SESSION_DIR>/phase1-change-analysis.json",
  "phase2_output": "<SESSION_DIR>/phase2-test-predictions.json"
}

Expected Output: <SESSION_DIR>/phase3-risk-assessment.json

{
  "metadata": {
    "phase": 3,
    "timestamp": "2025-12-22T17:10:00Z"
  },
  "risk_categories": {
    "high_risk": ["forecast() signature change - breaking"],
    "medium_risk": ["New anomaly detection - needs testing"],
    "low_risk": ["Documentation updates"]
  },
  "go_no_go": "pending"
}

Step 5: Run Phase 4 - VERIFICATION (Critical Phase)

Task: Run verification script, compare predictions vs reality

Script: scripts/analyze_test_results.sh

bash scripts/analyze_test_results.sh \
  "/home/jeremy/000-projects/nixtla" \
  "${SESSION_DIR}"

Expected Output: <SESSION_DIR>/phase4-verification-report.json

{
  "metadata": {
    "phase": 4,
    "script": "analyze_test_results.sh",
    "timestamp": "2025-12-22T17:15:00Z"
  },
  "results": {
    "tests_run": 145,
    "tests_passed": 142,
    "tests_failed": 3,
    "coverage_pct": 87.5,
    "failed_tests": ["test_forecast_basic", "test_forecast_with_exog"]
  },
  "prediction_comparison": {
    "predictions_confirmed": ["test_forecast_basic - FAILED as predicted"],
    "predictions_revised": [],
    "unexpected_failures": ["test_hierarchical - not predicted"]
  }
}

Step 6: Run Phase 5 - Go/No-Go Recommendation

Task: Spawn Phase 5 agent

Input JSON:

{
  "session_dir": "<SESSION_DIR>",
  "phase3_output": "<SESSION_DIR>/phase3-risk-assessment.json",
  "phase4_output": "<SESSION_DIR>/phase4-verification-report.json"
}

Expected Output: <SESSION_DIR>/phase5-final-recommendation.json

{
  "metadata": {
    "phase": 5,
    "timestamp": "2025-12-22T17:20:00Z"
  },
  "recommendation": "no-go",
  "blockers": [
    "3 test failures must be fixed before release",
    "forecast() breaking change needs migration guide"
  ],
  "release_notes": "...",
  "migration_steps": [...]
}

Step 7: Aggregate Final Report

Create summary markdown report:

cat > "${SESSION_DIR}/RELEASE-VALIDATION-SUMMARY.md" <<EOF
# Release Validation Summary

**Release**: v1.7.0 → v1.8.0
**Date**: $(date)
**Recommendation**: NO-GO

## Test Results
- Tests Run: 145
- Passed: 142
- Failed: 3

## Blockers
1. forecast() breaking change needs migration guide
2. 3 test failures must be addressed

## Next Steps
1. Fix test_forecast_basic
2. Fix test_forecast_with_exog
3. Fix test_hierarchical
4. Write migration guide for forecast() changes
5. Re-run validation

EOF

Output

Structured Outputs:

• phase1-change-analysis.json - Git changes analyzed
• phase2-test-predictions.json - Impact predictions
• phase3-risk-assessment.json - Risk categories
• phase4-verification-report.json - Actual test results
• phase5-final-recommendation.json - Go/no-go decision
• RELEASE-VALIDATION-SUMMARY.md - Human-readable summary

Evidence Trail: All outputs in timestamped session directory.

Error Handling

If Phase 1-3 fail: Check JSON syntax, file paths, git tags exist.

If Phase 4 fails:

• Verify pytest installed
• Check repo path is valid
• Ensure scripts/analyze_test_results.sh exists and is executable

If Phase 5 fails: Check Phase 3-4 JSON outputs exist and are valid.

Validation Failures: Each phase must write valid JSON to expected path before next phase runs.

Examples

Example 1: Run Full Validation

cd 002-workspaces/test-harness-lab/skills/nixtla-release-validation
SESSION_DIR="reports/$(date +%Y%m%d_%H%M%S)"
mkdir -p "${SESSION_DIR}"

# Phase 1-5: Spawn agents sequentially
# Phase 4: Run verification script
bash scripts/analyze_test_results.sh /home/jeremy/000-projects/nixtla "${SESSION_DIR}"

# Check final recommendation
cat "${SESSION_DIR}/phase5-final-recommendation.json" | jq '.recommendation'

Example 2: Test with v1.6.0 → v1.7.0

SESSION_DIR="reports/test_v1.6_to_v1.7"
mkdir -p "${SESSION_DIR}"

# Run phases with historical release
# Compare predictions vs actual (known outcome)

Resources

• NIXTLA-APPLICATIONS.md: Complete specification
• Reference Implementation: 002-workspaces/test-harness-lab/reference-implementation/
• Verification Script: scripts/analyze_test_results.sh
• Phase Agents: agents/phase_*.md