fjarlog

# Fjárlög — Icelandic state budget (appropriations + 5-year plan) **Requires:** Tier 0 (core). The **forward-looking** counterpart to [rikisreikningur](../rikisreikningur/SKILL.md) (which is *actuals*). Where ríkisreikningur answers "what was spent", fjárlög answers "what was appropriated / planned". The newspaper tables on defense, NATO targets, etc. are drawn from here — specifically from the **fjármálaáætlun** (5-year fiscal plan) and the annual **fjárlagafrumvarp** (budget bill), published by **Fjármála- og efnahagsráðuneytið** on `stjornarradid.is`. ## Source Per budget year there is a "Skjöl og gögn" page, e.g. `https://www.stjornarradid.is/verkefni/opinber-fjarmal/fjarlog/fjarlog-fyrir-arid-2026/skjol-og-gogn/` It links PDFs (frumvarp, samþykkt fjárlög, fylgirit) **and one machine-readable CSV**: *"Talnagögn úr fjárlagafrumvarpi"*. That single CSV is the whole budget at the level Alþingi appropriates it, and it is what this skill targets. - Filename carries a version suffix that changes between revisions (`… - 003.csv`), so the script **discovers** the link from the page HTML rather than hard-coding it (regex on `href=".*[Tt]alnag.*\.csv"`). - Sibling pages: `fjarmalaaaetlun/fjarmalaaaetlun-2026-2030/skjol-og-gogn/` (the 5-year plan), and `…/fjarlog-fyrir-arid-{Y}/fylgirit/` for the PDF "Yfirlit 3 — Fjárveitingar eftir málaflokkum og ráðuneytum". No API key, no auth. Plain file download over HTTPS. ## CSV schema (semicolon-delimited, UTF-8 BOM) | Column | Meaning | |--------|---------| | `Ár` | year | | `Afurð` | **data product** — see below | | `FlokkunNy` | (mostly empty; new-classification flag) | | `Málefnasvið` | policy area, `"04 Utanríkismál"` (01–36) | | `Málaflokkur` | policy sub-area, `"04.30 Samstarf um öryggis- og varnarmál"` | | `Ráðuneyti` | ministry, `"02 Utanríkisráðuneyti"` | | `Liður` | institution group | | `Viðfang` | appropriation item, `"101 Varnarmál"` | | `TegundNota` | **view** discriminator — see below | | `Upphæð` | amount in **m.kr** (millions ISK) | One file spans four `Afurð` products in one long table: | Afurð | Years (in 2026 file) | Meaning | |-------|----------------------|---------| | `Ríkisreikningur` | 2024 | final state-accounts **actuals** (outturn) | | `Fjárlög` | 2025 | **enacted** budget, prior year | | `Frumvarp` | 2026 | the budget **bill** for the budget year | | `Áætlun` | 2027–2028 | fiscal-**plan** projection | ### TegundNota is a *view*, never sum across it The same money appears under several `TegundNota` values. Pick one; do **not** add them up: - `Gjöld` / `Heildarútgjöld` — **gross expenditure** (use for "spending") - `Tekjur` / `Rekstrartekjur` — revenue / own-revenue (sértekjur) - `Greiðsla` / `Fjárhæð` — net cash / net appropriation - `Rekstrarframlög` + `Rekstrartilfærslur` + `Fjárfestingarframlög` (+ `Fjármagnstilfærslur`) — the funding-component breakdown that **sums to Heildarútgjöld** ## Defense — the worked example Defense is málaflokkur **04.30 "Samstarf um öryggis- og varnarmál"** (viðfang `101 Varnarmál` + `601 Tæki og búnaður`), under the Utanríkisráðuneyti. ``` uv run python scripts/fjarlog.py mala 04.30 # Gjöld, all products ``` | Year | Afurð | Gjöld (m.kr) | |------|-------|-------------:| | 2024 | Ríkisreikningur (actual) | **6,553** | | 2025 | Fjárlög (enacted) | 6,821 | | 2026 | Frumvarp (bill) | **10,404** | The 2026 bill figure (10.4 bn) matches the press characterisation of *"bein útgjöld til varnar- og öryggismála … um 10,6 milljörðum … 0,22% af VLF"*. ⚠️ **The broad "varnar- og öryggismál" 0,9 %-of-GDP aggregate is NOT this line.** That ~43–53 bn / 0.88–1.00 % series (Minnisblað fjármála- og efnahagsráðuneytis, A1 + A3 + C-hluti + sveitarfélög) is a bespoke cross-cutting construct: it folds in parts of the coast guard (09.20 Landhelgi), civil defence (almannavarnir), cyber/network defence and airport/harbour readiness on top of 04.30. It cannot be reproduced by summing a single málaflokkur, and it lives only in the ministry memo, not in this CSV. The raw heimamundur ledger in [rikisreikningur](../rikisreikningur/SKILL.md) slices 04.30 by *economic type* and yields a smaller ~3.2 bn — that is an artefact of how grant-funded operations are booked, **not** the headline defense number. Use the budget CSV's `Gjöld` (6.55 bn for 2024) as the official figure. ## Usage ```bash uv run python scripts/fjarlog.py fetch # download + tidy → data/processed/fjarlog.parquet uv run python scripts/fjarlog.py fetch --year 2026 # choose budget-year page uv run python scripts/fjarlog.py products # afurð × year coverage uv run python scripts/fjarlog.py mala 04.30 # one málaflokkur across years (Gjöld) uv run python scripts/fjarlog.py mala 04.30 --tegund Heildarútgjöld ``` Processed output `data/processed/fjarlog.parquet` columns: `ar, afurd, flokkun_ny, malefnasvid, malefnasvid_nr, malaflokkur, malaflokkur_nr, raduneyti, lidur, vidfang, tegund, mkr`. Query with DuckDB: ```bash uv run python scripts/sql.py "SELECT ar, afurd, SUM(mkr)/1000 AS bn FROM 'data/processed/fjarlog.parquet' WHERE tegund='Gjöld' GROUP BY 1,2 ORDER BY 1" -- total spending by year ``` ## The fylgirit "Yfirlit" CSV exports (alternative source) The interactive dashboard / fylgirit also lets you export each overview as its own CSV. These are **SSRS report dumps** — raw `Textbox###` column names, repeated group-header columns, dotted-leader padding (`"Alþingi . . . ."`), 3-line preamble — far messier than the single `Talnagögn` CSV above. Use `Talnagögn` for programmatic work; reach for these only for cross-check or the revenue side. | Export | Content | Verdict | |--------|---------|---------| | Yfirlit 2 | 2026 appropriations by economic split (rekstur/tilfærslur/fjárfesting) | duplicate of `Talnagögn` | | **Yfirlit 3** | **2024–2028** by ráðuneyti → málaflokkur → ríkisaðili → viðfang, 5 year columns wide | best cross-check; **extends plan to 2028** | | Yfirlit 4 | 2026 appropriations by ríkisaðili (entity) | duplicate | | **Sundurliðun Tekna** (Yfirlit 1) | **A1 REVENUE** side: tax lines (income tax, VAT…), `álagt` (assessed) vs `greiðsla` (cash), 4 years | **not in `Talnagögn`** — the only additive file | Validation (2025-06): Yfirlit 3 reproduces `Talnagögn` exactly — defense 04.30 = 6,553.3 / 6,820.9 / 10,404.3 m.kr (2024/25/26) and grand total `Samtals útgjöld` 2024 = 1,491,095.1 m.kr both match. Yfirlit 3 additionally gives plan years 2027 = 11,403.1 and 2028 = 9,915.3 m.kr for defense. **Revenue gap:** the `Talnagögn` CSV / `fjarlog.parquet` only carries per-málaflokkur *own-revenue* (sértekjur, ≤~19 bn rows), **not** the A1 macro tax revenue (income tax ~304 bn, VAT ~465 bn). For the revenue side use *Sundurliðun Tekna*. Parsing it means: skip 3 preamble lines, take leaf rows by revenue key (111 income/profit tax, 112 payroll, 113 property, 114 goods & services/VAT…), columns `alagt{n}`/`greidsla{n}` are assessed-vs-cash per year. ## Caveats 1. **`mkr` is millions ISK.** Divide by 1000 for billions. Number format varies by revision (dot-decimal `6381.1` in the current file; older revisions used comma-decimal `6.381,1`) — the script normalises both. 2. **Never sum across `TegundNota`** (see above). Filter to one view first. 3. **Year coverage shifts** with each budget edition: the 2026 file gives 2024 actual → 2028 plan. Re-`fetch` to roll the window forward; pass `--year` to target a specific edition's page. 4. **Gross vs net.** `Gjöld`/`Heildarútgjöld` are gross of own-revenue; the málaflokkur-level totals are *before* inter-entity eliminations, so the project-wide sum (~1,491 bn for 2024) runs above the consolidated ríkisreikningur expenditure (~1,245 bn). 5. **Defense definition.** 04.30 = direct defense only. The 0.9 %-of-GDP "varnar- og öryggismál" aggregate is a separate ministry construct (see the worked example above). 6. **Discovery fallback.** If the page layout changes and the CSV link can't be found, the script falls back to a hard-coded 2026 URL and prints a warning — re-point `_FALLBACK_CSV` if needed. ## Related - [rikisreikningur](../rikisreikningur/SKILL.md) — actuals (outturn); pairs with this skill's plan/appropriations - [opnirreikningar](../opnirreikningar/SKILL.md) — invoice-level government spending - [hagstofan](../hagstofan/SKILL.md) — GFS-standard fiscal aggregates (THJ tables), GDP (VLF) for %-of-GDP ratios