kayba-stage-4-rubric

name	kayba-stage-4-rubric
description	Organize computed metrics into a tiered evaluation rubric with leading, lagging, and quality indicators. Trigger when the user says "run stage 4", "build rubric", "tier metrics", or when invoked by the kayba-pipeline orchestrator. Requires eval/baseline_metrics.json and eval/compute_baselines.py to exist.

Stage 4: Rubric Definition

Organize metrics into a tiered evaluation rubric. Detect and resolve redundancy quantitatively. Ensure every insight is accounted for.

Inputs

• eval/baseline_metrics.json — computed baseline values from Stage 3
• eval/compute_baselines.py — to understand what each metric measures
• eval/stage1_insights_summary.md — the original insights
• eval/stage2_domain_context.md — domain context

Read all four files before starting.

Process

1. Quantitative redundancy check

Before tiering, check every pair of metrics for overlap. Two metrics are redundancy candidates if ANY of the following hold:

• Denominator overlap >70%: compute |denom_events(A) ∩ denom_events(B)| / min(|denom(A)|, |denom(B)|). If >0.70, they are candidates. To compute this, trace through the detector functions in compute_baselines.py and determine which trace events (turns, calls, threads) each denominator iterates over. When denominators are identical sets (same loop, same filter), overlap is 100%.
• Same skill set: the metrics map to the exact same set of insight/skill IDs from Stage 1.
• Logical subsumption: one metric's positive case is a strict subset of the other's (e.g., "turn has exactly 1 tool call" is a subset of "turn has no user-facing content alongside tool calls" only if every single-call turn also has no content — check this, don't assume it).

For each candidate pair, make an explicit decision with reasoning:

Pair	Denom overlap	Skill overlap	Subsumption?	Decision	Reasoning
M1/M2	100% (same 29 turns)	identical	No — can violate one without the other	Keep both	Independently actionable: batching vs. content leaking are distinct fixes

Valid decisions: keep both (with reasoning why they're independently actionable), merge (combine into one metric, specify how), or drop (specify which and why). "They feel different" is not sufficient reasoning — cite the specific behavior that one catches and the other misses.

Final count target: 5-7 metrics after redundancy resolution.

2. Tier each metric

Use this decision flowchart for every metric:

Q1: Can a SINGLE skill/instruction change directly move this metric?
    → If the agent follows one new instruction and the metric improves,
      regardless of other behaviors: LEADING.

Q2: Does moving this metric require MULTIPLE skills to be adopted together?
    → If improvement depends on several upstream behaviors all working
      (e.g., proper turn structure + confirmation flow + execution):
      LAGGING.

Q3: Does moving this metric require domain reasoning beyond following instructions?
    → If the agent needs to correctly interpret policy rules, evaluate
      eligibility criteria, or make judgment calls that can't be reduced
      to a single instruction: QUALITY.

Apply the flowchart to each metric and record the Q1/Q2/Q3 answer that determined the tier. If a metric could arguably be two tiers, pick the lower one (Leading < Lagging < Quality) and note the ambiguity.

Tier summary for reference:

Tier	Purpose	Moves when...	Diagnostic signal
Leading	Behaviors a single skill directly changes	Skill is adopted	If leading moves but lagging doesn't → skill adopted but not solving the right problem
Lagging	Aggregate outcomes requiring multiple skills	Multiple skills coordinate	If lagging moves but leading doesn't → something else improved, not your skills
Quality	Requires domain understanding, not just instruction-following	Agent reasons correctly	If quality moves but lagging doesn't → agent got lucky or metric is mis-tiered

3. Flag low-confidence baselines

Any metric with denominator < 5 events is a low-confidence baseline. These metrics:

• ARE included in the rubric (they measure real behaviors)
• Are marked with **Confidence: low** (n=X) in the rubric
• Must NOT drive priority decisions in Stage 5 — they inform direction only
• Should note what denominator size would make them reliable (rule of thumb: n >= 10 for a rate metric to be meaningful, n >= 30 for statistical comparisons)

4. Set direction

For each metric, indicate whether it should go up higher or down lower. Don't set arbitrary numerical targets — baseline + direction is enough.

Ceiling guard: If a metric's baseline is already 100%, its direction MUST be "↑ maintain" or "— already optimal", never "↑" as if it needs to go higher. A 100% metric is at ceiling — the goal is to sustain it, not improve it. Similarly, if a metric is at 0% and the desired direction is "↓", mark it "↓ maintain" or "— already at floor". Do not let any downstream stage (Stage 5 action plan, Stage 7 fixes) list a ceiling/floor metric as needing improvement.

5. Map insights to metrics (completeness check)

For every insight from eval/stage1_insights_summary.md, assign it to one of three categories:

1. Mapped — directly linked to one or more metrics. List which ones.
2. Indirectly mapped — supports a metric but isn't the primary driver. List the metric and explain the indirect relationship.
3. Qualitative-only — no programmatic metric captures this insight. Explicitly mark it and state why (e.g., "requires LLM-as-judge," "measures explanation quality," "efficiency pattern with no clear denominator").

Every insight MUST appear in exactly one category. If you find an insight that should have a metric but doesn't, note it as a gap for future Stage 3 iterations — but do not invent metrics at this stage.

At the end, report:

• X / N insights mapped to metrics
• Y / N insights indirectly mapped
• Z / N insights qualitative-only

6. Add invalidation notes

For each metric, write one sentence answering: "What would make this tier assignment wrong?"

Examples:

• M1 (Leading): "Wrong if fixing batching also requires the agent to change its confirmation flow — that would make it Lagging."
• M5 (Quality): "Wrong if cancellation compliance can be fixed by a single checklist instruction without requiring the agent to reason about policy — that would make it Leading."

These notes exist so Stage 5 can catch tier errors. If Stage 5 finds evidence that a tier is wrong (e.g., a single skill would move a "Quality" metric), it should flag the conflict rather than silently inheriting the error.

7. Write the rubric

Write to eval/baseline_metrics.md:

# Eval Rubric — Baseline Metrics

## Summary
| # | Metric | Tier | Baseline | Direction | Confidence |
|---|--------|------|----------|-----------|------------|
| M1 | First-call success rate | Leading | 37.6% | up | ok (n=29) |
| M2 | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |

## Tier Definitions

- **Leading** — Single skill directly moves this. Should change first after deployment.
- **Lagging** — Multiple skills must coordinate. Improves as a consequence of adoption.
- **Quality** — Requires domain reasoning beyond instruction-following. Hardest to move.

## Metric Details

### M1: [name]
**Tier:** Leading
**Baseline:** 37.6% (685 / 1,821)
**Confidence:** ok (n=1821) | low (n=X) — needs n>=Y for reliable comparison
**Direction:** up higher is better
**What it measures:** [description]
**How it's computed:** [reference to function in compute_baselines.py]
**Skills that should move this:** [list insight/skill IDs from stage 1]
**Tier rationale:** [which flowchart question determined the tier]
**Invalidation note:** [what would make this tier wrong]

### M2: [name]
...

## Redundancy Analysis

| Pair | Denom overlap | Skill overlap | Subsumption? | Decision | Reasoning |
|------|---------------|---------------|--------------|----------|-----------|
| ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |

## Insight Coverage

### Mapped (X / N)
- `insight_id` — [title] → M1, M3

### Indirectly mapped (Y / N)
- `insight_id` — [title] → supports M5 via [explanation]

### Qualitative-only (Z / N)
- `insight_id` — [title] — [why no metric: e.g., "requires LLM-as-judge"]

Outputs

• eval/baseline_metrics.md — human-readable tiered rubric with redundancy analysis, confidence flags, insight coverage, and invalidation notes