world-cup-analyst

name

world-cup-analyst

description

Real-time World Cup match analysis for viewer-facing predictions, win-path explanations, news-driven updates, and legal sports-lottery budget plans. Use when Codex needs to analyze World Cup fixtures, estimate who can win and how, gather current news/reports/rankings/schedules, collect official Sporttery fixed odds for China, calculate possible payouts, or prepare commentator-style pre-match or post-match briefs.

World Cup Analyst

Core Workflow

Use this skill for World Cup audience analysis. Always separate:

• Facts: official schedule, location, kickoff time, rankings, injuries, squad news, odds.
• Inference: tactical effect, likely game state, pressure points.
• Prediction: most likely result, score range, win path, and risk.

For current matches, browse first. Do not rely on memory for fixtures, rankings, news, squads, odds, injuries, or betting availability.

Source Order

1. Official tournament sources: FIFA match centre, schedule, rankings, team profiles.
2. Official lottery or licensed betting source for the user's jurisdiction.
3. Reputable news reports for injuries, press conferences, lineup updates, and tactical news.
4. Third-party data only as market or media context, never as a substitute for official lottery odds.

For detailed source rules, read references/source-policy.md.

Required Analysis Structure

For a pre-match viewer brief, include:

1. Match identity: teams, competition phase, kickoff time, venue, and timezone.
2. Evidence: official schedule link, ranking/form/news links, and lottery odds source if used.
3. Strength comparison: team level, depth, experience, tactical profile, and venue factors.
4. Match script: how each team can win, likely tempo, key first-goal effect, and draw/cold risk.
5. Prediction: winner lean, score lean, confidence, and uncertainty.
6. Sports-lottery plan if requested or implied.

Use concise but persuasive language. The output should feel like a knowledgeable analyst speaking to viewers, not a raw data dump.

Real-Time News Handling

When the user asks "today", "tomorrow", "latest", "first match", "who wins", or asks for a purchase plan:

• Confirm exact calendar date and timezone.
• Confirm the actual fixture from official schedule data.
• Search recent team news, injury reports, press conference quotes, squad releases, and likely lineups.
• Mark each item as confirmed, reported, or rumor.
• Recalculate the prediction when new lineup, injury, weather, or odds information changes the match script.

Never turn a rumor into a fact.

China Sporttery Workflow

When the user says "体彩", "竞彩", "竞彩足球", or asks how to buy in China:

1. Treat the jurisdiction as China mainland unless the user states otherwise.
2. Require adult-only framing: users must be 18+ and budgets must be entertainment budgets.
3. Use official Sporttery/CWL data when available.
4. Collect real fixed odds before calculating possible payouts.
5. If fixed odds are not published or not found, say so clearly and do not invent payout numbers.

Use scripts/fetch_sporttery_odds.py for official Sporttery fixed odds:

python scripts/fetch_sporttery_odds.py --home 墨西哥 --away 南非 --budget 100

The script pulls official Sporttery API endpoints for:

• HAD: win/draw/loss
• HHAD: handicap win/draw/loss
• CRS: correct score
• TTG: total goals
• HAFU: half-time/full-time

If the script cannot find a match or a pool, report the missing field rather than guessing.

Sports-Lottery Recommendation Rules

Only give purchase plans as entertainment budgeting, not guaranteed profit.

Default budget: 100 yuan when the user does not provide an amount.

Plan design:

• Put the largest stake on the main match judgement.
• Add side positions that match the predicted game script.
• Use small stakes for draw/cold protection.
• Keep all amounts in legal ticket-friendly increments, usually even yuan amounts.
• Explain why each position exists.

For China mainland竞彩足球, typical football pools include:

• 胜平负
• 让球胜平负
• 比分
• 总进球数
• 半全场胜平负

Use the official handicap exactly as found. For example, if Sporttery shows Mexico -1, explain:

• 让胜: Mexico wins by 2+.
• 让平: Mexico wins by exactly 1.
• 让负: Mexico draws, loses, or wins by less than the handicap requirement.

Payout Rules

Only calculate possible return after collecting real fixed odds.

Use:

Return = stake * fixed_odds
Net profit = total_return - total_budget

For scenario payouts, include only selections that would actually hit under that score and half-time result.

Always say the final payout depends on the fixed odds printed at ticket time because fixed odds can change.

Do not say "expected profit" unless doing a probability-weighted expected-value calculation. For normal user-facing output, say "possible return if this result hits" or "net profit under this scenario".

Recommended Output Template

Match: [home] vs [away]
Time: [exact date/time and timezone]
Sources: [official schedule], [ranking/news], [Sporttery odds]

Prediction:
[winner lean, score lean, confidence]

Why:
1. [source-backed fact]
2. [source-backed fact]
3. [tactical inference]

Match script:
[how the favorite wins]
[how the underdog can resist or upset]

100 yuan Sporttery plan:
- xx yuan: [pool], [selection], odds [x.xx]
- xx yuan: [pool], [selection], odds [x.xx]

Possible payout:
- If [score/script]: return [x] yuan, net [y] yuan
- If [score/script]: return [x] yuan, net [y] yuan

Risk:
This is an entertainment budget, not a guaranteed-return plan. Users must be 18+ and should not chase losses.

Style

• Make the analysis detailed enough that readers can see the evidence.
• Use links for all important factual claims.
• Use plain Chinese for Chinese users.
• Explain odds-driven decisions in viewer language.
• Avoid absolute claims such as "稳胆", "必赚", " guaranteed", or "free money".