cynefin-classify

name	cynefin-classify
description	Use when facing a new problem to classify its domain (Clear, Complicated, Complex, Chaotic, Confused) and select appropriate methods.
metadata	{"instruction_budget":"20","framework_dependency":"mycelium","framework_dependency_note":"This skill is designed to run within the Mycelium framework (https://github.com/haabe/mycelium). Standalone use will skip the canvas state, theory gates, and harness behavior the skill assumes. Install: /plugin install mycelium@haabe/mycelium."}

Cynefin Classify Skill

Classify problem domain and route to appropriate methods.

Preflight: Read target canvas file(s) before any Write/Edit

Hard rule. Before issuing Write or Edit against any .claude/canvas/*.yml, use the Read tool on that file in this session. Claude Code's Read-before-Write check requires the Read tool specifically — cat/head/grep via Bash do NOT satisfy it.

Edit vs Write — different cost profiles (verified 2026-05-14):

• Edit (exact-string replacement): Read with limit: 1 satisfies the check at ~50 tokens. State-tracking is per-file, not per-byte — subsequent Edit calls work anywhere in the file. Use this for partial updates against large canvas files (e.g., purpose.yml at 800+ lines).
• Write (full replacement): do a full Read first. Write obliterates the file; you should see what you're about to replace. The limit:1 shortcut is not appropriate here.

ID-bearing entries — scan the ID space before assigning (added 2026-05-15, v0.23.19): When adding a new component, opportunity, solution, or any other ID-bearing entry to a canvas file, run a Bash grep first to confirm the next ID in your prefix sequence is actually free:

grep "^  - id: <prefix>-" .claude/canvas/<file>.yml | sort -u

Replace <prefix> with the canvas's ID prefix (comp for landscape, opp for opportunities, sol for solutions, ht for human-tasks, etc.). Then pick the next free integer. validate_canvas.py has a duplicate-ID check (lines 230-239) that catches the failure on CI, but a duplicate can persist in the working tree for days if CI isn't run between edit and discovery — see roadmap-repo corrections.md 2026-05-15 "Duplicate canvas ID created in landscape.yml" for the worked example.

Original failure mode: anti-pattern #7 instance #5, 2026-05-09 — agent conflated Bash head with the Read tool, lost ~14k tokens to a Write-fail → remedial-full-Read → re-Write loop. The limit:1 discipline (graduated 2026-05-14, v0.23.18) prevents the second-order cost where the agent correctly follows the rule but full-Reads every time. The ID-scan discipline (graduated 2026-05-15, v0.23.19) prevents the related class where the agent reads enough of the file to satisfy the Edit check but not enough to see existing ID assignments — kin to anti-pattern #8 (Stale State Read).

If this skill writes to multiple canvas files, register each one first (limit:1 for Edit-only paths; full Read for Write paths) AND ID-scan any prefix you intend to assign.

See CLAUDE.md Canvas writes — Read before Write for the canonical rule.

Workflow

1. Describe the problem in neutral terms.

2. Ask diagnostic questions:

   • Can we predict the outcome of actions? (Yes=Clear/Complicated, No=Complex/Chaotic)
   • Do experts agree on the approach? (Yes=Clear, Somewhat=Complicated, No=Complex)
   • Is the situation stable? (Yes=Clear/Complicated/Complex, No=Chaotic)
   • Has this been solved before? (Yes=Clear, Similar=Complicated, No=Complex)

3. Classify into one of five domains using cynefin-routing.md.

4. Select methods appropriate to the domain:

   • Clear: Best practice, checklists, automation
   • Complicated: Expert analysis, options evaluation, technical spikes
   • Complex: Safe-to-fail probes, experiments, continuous discovery
   • Chaotic: Stabilize, act, then reassess
   • Confused: Decompose into classifiable parts (formerly "Disorder"; "Aporetic" when deliberately entering this state)

5. Cross-reference with Wardley evolution if strategic context is available.

6. Output:

   ## Cynefin Classification
   Problem: [description]
   Domain: [Clear/Complicated/Complex/Chaotic/Confused]
   Confidence: [High/Medium/Low]
   Liminal: [Yes/No — is this between domains?]
   
   Rationale: [why this classification]
   
   Recommended methods:
   - [method 1]
   - [method 2]
   
   Warning signs of misclassification:
   - [what would indicate we got it wrong]
   

Canvas Output

Update .claude/diamonds/active.yml with the cynefin_domain field for the relevant diamond. If Wardley mapping was referenced, update .claude/canvas/landscape.yml component evolution stages.

Liminal Zones (Snowden, 2022+)

Most real decisions happen in liminal zones — transitional states between domains where characteristics of two adjacent domains blend. If the classification feels uncertain, you may be in a liminal zone rather than a pure domain.

Transition	What it feels like	Action
Clear → Complicated	"We have a process but it's not covering edge cases"	Add expert analysis to the existing practice
Complicated → Complex	"Experts disagree and new factors keep emerging"	Shift from analysis to experimentation
Complex → Chaotic	"Our experiments aren't converging, things are getting worse"	Stabilize first, experiment later
Chaotic → Complex	"We've stopped the bleeding, now what?"	Design safe-to-fail probes
Clear → Chaotic (catastrophic fold)	"Everything was fine and then it all collapsed"	See warning below

Clear→Chaotic Catastrophic Fold

The most important Cynefin warning: when a system in Clear becomes complacent — rigid rules, no sensing, "we've always done it this way" — it can catastrophically collapse into Chaotic with no warning. The transition is NOT gradual. There is no intermediate Complicated or Complex stage.

Detection signs: Over-reliance on best practices without questioning them. No feedback loops. "We don't need to monitor that." Dismissing edge cases as irrelevant.

Mycelium connection: Theory gates and /mycelium:feedback-review prevent complacent drift by requiring evidence refresh and active sensing at every transition.

Source: Snowden (Cynefin evolution, cynefin.io, 2022+)

Decision Log (MANDATORY per G-P4)

APPEND a ### Cynefin Classification entry to .claude/harness/decision-log.md with: domain classified, key indicators, method routed to, confidence in classification.

Theory Citations

• Snowden: Cynefin framework (including Liminal zones and Confused/Aporetic domain renaming)
• Wardley: Evolution mapping