| name | sports-update |
| description | Use when refreshing models or running the full pipeline. Runs ingest + odds + fit + decide + publish for specified leagues. |
| argument-hint | [ingest|odds|fit|decide|publish|all] [--league LEAGUE] [--sex male|female] [--force] |
| context | fork |
| effort | high |
/sports-update — Full pipeline update
Wraps the five scripts/0N_*.R entry points for the active Icelandic
leagues. Each script has its own freshness guard: 02_scrape_odds.R
skips when there are no upcoming games; 03_fit.R skips when no new
games have been played since the last fit. Pass --force to bypass.
Step 1: Parse arguments
Pick the default selector based on the user's phrasing:
| User phrasing | Default action |
|---|
| "run the pipeline", "update the models", "refresh", "full update" | Run all five scripts in order |
| "just refresh fits" / "rescrape odds" / "republish" | Run a single script (mapping below) |
explicit --league, --sex | Honour the user |
Selectors:
--league KEY — one league (football_iceland, basketball_iceland, handball_iceland)--sex SEX — restrict to male, female, or all--force — bypass the freshness guard in 03_fit.R and 02_scrape_odds.R
Single-step mapping (when the user asks for one phase only):
| Phrasing | Script invocation |
|---|
| "ingest", "scrape results" | scripts/01_ingest_results.R |
| "odds", "scrape odds" | scripts/02_scrape_odds.R |
| "fit", "refit", "refresh models" | scripts/03_fit.R |
| "decide", "recompute recs" | scripts/04_decide.R |
| "publish", "regenerate JSONs" | scripts/05_publish.R |
| "settle", "resolve bets", "settle ledger" | scripts/06_settle.R |
Step 2: Plan and warn
For full runs, warn that model fitting takes significant time:
- 1 league × 1 sex: ~5–15 min (1000 MCMC iters)
- All active × both sexes: ~1–2 h (basketball fits dominate)
The freshness guards mean that re-running with no new completed games
short-circuits in <1 second per (league × sex) pair. So scheduled re-runs
are cheap; fresh fits only happen when there's new data.
Approximate inference (Pathfinder, ADVI) is disabled on the current
models — they crash. Always use the default sample method.
Step 3: Execute (detached launch for long runs)
Always use a detached launch for long fits. This skill runs with
context: fork — a plain run_in_background: true Bash call inside the
fork creates a process that dies when the fork terminates, which has
silently killed pipeline runs partway through chromote-backed scrapes.
nohup … & disown detaches the process so it survives.
For a full refresh (chained):
cd /Users/brynjolfurjonsson/sports && \
LOG=/tmp/sports-update-$(date +%Y%m%d-%H%M%S).log && \
nohup bash -c '
Rscript scripts/00_active_competitions.R && \
Rscript scripts/01_ingest_results.R && \
Rscript scripts/02_scrape_odds.R && \
Rscript scripts/03_fit.R && \
Rscript scripts/06_settle.R && \
Rscript scripts/04_decide.R && \
Rscript scripts/05_publish.R
' > "$LOG" 2>&1 & \
disown && \
echo "Launched PID $! (log: $LOG)"
For a single-step run (replace 03_fit.R with the relevant script):
cd /Users/brynjolfurjonsson/sports && \
LOG=/tmp/sports-update-$(date +%Y%m%d-%H%M%S).log && \
nohup Rscript scripts/03_fit.R > "$LOG" 2>&1 & \
disown && \
echo "Launched PID $! (log: $LOG)"
Capture the PID and log path. Report both to the user so they can tail or
kill if needed.
Monitoring. Poll the log, not ps. The fork's sandbox can hide
processes from user-level ps even while running. A simple until loop
on grep -qE "complete|Error" "$LOG" with a generous timeout (1–3 h
depending on selector + step) is sufficient.
For short steps (02_scrape_odds.R, 04_decide.R, 05_publish.R)
running inline (without nohup) is fine — they complete in seconds.
Step 4: Verify outputs
After completion, check the relevant Parquet stores:
| Step | Verifying read |
|---|
ingest | data/facts/results/sport=*/country=*/ partitions touched recently |
odds | data/facts/odds/sport=*/country=*/scraped_date=*/ has a fresh scraped_date |
fit | data/beliefs/latest/sport=*/country=*/sex=*/beliefs.parquet mtime is recent |
decide | data/decisions/recommendations/sport=*/country=*/run_date=*/ has a fresh run_date |
publish | data/publish/{football,basketball,handball}/iceland/{karla,kvenna}/*.json mtime is recent |
Or, more uniformly, via DuckDB:
Rscript -e 'sports::rebuild_duckdb(); con <- DBI::dbConnect(duckdb::duckdb(), "sports.duckdb", read_only = TRUE); print(DBI::dbGetQuery(con, "SELECT sport, country, MAX(scraped_at) FROM odds GROUP BY 1,2"))'
Step 5: Offer to commit
If the pipeline modified data/, offer to commit. Tracked Parquet stores
should be committed alongside model/code changes; ad-hoc rebuilds without
data changes are fine to leave uncommitted.
cd /Users/brynjolfurjonsson/sports && git add data/ config/ && git status
Only commit if the user confirms. Use a descriptive message such as
"Refresh fits + publish ({date})" or "Scrape odds ({date})".
Common workflows
Pre-betting refresh
Rscript scripts/00_active_competitions.R
Rscript scripts/01_ingest_results.R
Rscript scripts/02_scrape_odds.R
Rscript scripts/03_fit.R
Rscript scripts/06_settle.R
Rscript scripts/04_decide.R
Rscript scripts/05_publish.R
Rscript scripts/preview_bets.R
Quick model test (smoke check)
To smoke-test a single fit manually with fewer iterations, call the
model layer directly:
Rscript -e 'devtools::load_all(); fit_one(load_leagues()$basketball_iceland, "male", iter_sampling = 200, write_archive = FALSE)'
Just refresh decide + publish (after a manual fit)
Rscript scripts/04_decide.R
Rscript scripts/05_publish.R
Reference
- Pipeline entry points:
scripts/0N_*.R (one per layer)
- Freshness predicates:
R/pipeline-freshness.R
- League registry:
config/leagues.yml
- Per-step R modules:
R/{ingest,model,decide,publish}-*.R
- Stan models:
Stan/{league_key}/{file}.stan
- Publishing scaffolds:
R/publish-{football,basketball,handball}-iceland.R
- Bet placement (separate, local-only):
/place-bets skill
