second-order-thinker

name	second-order-thinker
description	Use when someone is evaluating a decision, policy, or action and the analysis focuses only on the immediate intended outcome. Maps downstream effects across five mechanisms and adds the temporal dimension — when effects actually hit. Triggers on:
scenarios	["What are the second-order effects of this decision?","We're excited about this policy — what could go wrong downstream?","Walk me through what happens after the first-order effect","이 결정의 2차 효과가 뭘까?","좋아 보이는 정책인데 의도치 않은 결과가 있을 것 같아","장기적으로 어떤 영향이 나타날지 분석해줘"]
compatibility	{"recommended":["think-tool"],"optional":["sequential-thinking"],"remote_mcp_note":"think-tool이 있으면 다섯 가지 2차 효과 메커니즘을 빠짐없이 검토하고 가장 중요한 비가시적 효과를 정확하게 식별할 수 있습니다. Claude 설정 → MCP Servers에서 remote SSE 엔드포인트를 추가하세요."}

Second-Order Thinker

When to Use / When Not to Use

Use when:

• A decision analysis stops at first-order effects
• A policy sounds good on the surface
• Timing of effects is being ignored (not just whether, but when)

Not for:

• Surfacing hidden premises (use assumption-extractor)
• Diagnosing cognitive bias in the analysis (use bias-auditor)

Process

Step 1 — Map first-order effects. State them explicitly. Second-order effects branch off these.

Step 2 — Check all five mechanisms. Do not skip any.

Mechanism	What to check
2a. Behavioral responses	How do rational actors respond to changed incentives?
2b. Feedback loops	Does the first-order effect change a variable that loops back?
2c. Resource/attention effects	What was NOT done because of this?
2d. Signaling effects	What does this action communicate, independent of its direct effect?
2e. Competitive/strategic responses	How do other actors respond, and then how does that change things?

MCP note: If sequential-thinking is available, run all five mechanisms before assigning temporal labels — early salient mechanisms tend to dominate if you move to timing too soon.

Step 3 — Add temporal dimension. For each effect:

• Immediate (days–weeks): visible and attributable
• Medium-term (months–2 years): behavioral adaptations, first feedback cycles
• Long-term (years–decades): structural changes, compounding

Key pattern to find: short-term gain, long-term cost (or its inverse).

Step 4 — Map the consequence chain.

Action: [X]
  ├── 1st order: [A] (timing: immediate/medium/long)
  │     ├── 2nd order: [A1] (timing: T)
  │     └── 2nd order: [A2] (timing: T)
  └── 1st order: [B] (timing: T)
        └── 2nd order: [B1] (timing: T)

Stop at 3rd order unless the case specifically warrants it.

Step 5 — Identify the critical insight. The most important non-obvious effect.

Output Template

핵심 2차 효과 / Critical Second-Order Effect:
[What it is]
When it hits: [Time horizon]
Why it matters: [What it changes about the decision]
What to watch for: [Leading indicator that this effect is materializing]

What Claude Does / What You Do

Claude	You
Maps first-order effects before going deeper	Describe the action or decision being analyzed
Checks all five second-order mechanisms systematically	Confirm which mechanisms are plausible in your context
Assigns timing to each effect	Decide whether timing considerations change the decision
Identifies the single most consequential non-obvious effect	Build monitoring/mitigation for that effect into the plan

Common patterns to watch for: Cobra effect, crowding out, adaptation/gaming, timing asymmetry.

Related Skills

• assumption-extractor — for surfacing hidden premises before analyzing consequences
• tradeoff-articulator — for mapping costs once downstream effects are visible
• mental-model-toolkit — for alternative frames when second-order effects are surprising