commodities-outlook

name	commodities-outlook
description	Produce institutional-grade commodity outlook reports with supply-demand analysis, price forecasts, and trade recommendations, formatted as PDF, DOCX, or PPTX documents. Triggered when users request commodity market reports, ask for trade ideas on energy, metals, or agricultural commodities, or mention keywords like commodity outlook, research note, or price drivers.

Commodity Research Outlook

Produce institutional-grade commodity outlook reports following a proven sell-side research structure.

Reference Source

• Type: Uploaded PDF artifacts (three editions: 2024, 2025, 2026)
• Reference File Type: PDF
• Primary Style Reference: 2026 edition (clean minimal design, geometric sans-serif typography)
• Supported outputs: PDF (primary), DOCX (editable), PPTX (presentation subset)
• Default output: PDF when user does not specify

Style Contract

Load references/style_contract.md for full visual specification. Key rules below.

Must-Follow Style Rules

1. Cover page — NO dark gradient bars. White background throughout. Text-only header: brand logo name top-left, "Commodities Research" top-right with date/time. Thin vertical navy accent line on left margin below header.
2. No section number hierarchy (no 1., 1.1, 2., etc.). Use paragraph-style flowing text with bold subheadings like "Long Gold" or "Insurance Value of Commodities" embedded in the narrative.
3. No colored section heading bars. Clean white page background on all body pages.
4. Typography: Geometric neo-grotesque sans-serif; use Helvetica Neue / Arial as primary font. Never use LiberationSans.
5. Charts: Navy (#003366) and red/terracotta (#C62828) as primary series colors. Clean minimal gridlines. Multi-panel exhibits (2 charts side-by-side) are standard.

Quick Reference

Element	Specification
Brand header text	Clean text logo on white — NO gradient/dark bars
Section headings	Bold, inline with text flow, narrative style
Body text	~10-11pt, left-aligned, ragged right
Running header	Thin rule; "[Firm Name]" left, "Commodity Views" right
Footer	Date left, page number right
Exhibit titles	Bold, "Exhibit N: [Descriptive Title]"
Source line	Small gray text, "Source: [Agencies], [Firm Name] Global Investment Research"

Structure Contract

Load references/structure_contract.md for full structural specification.

Document Flow (No TOC Page)

Cover Page (page 1)
  |-- Brand text header + date
  |-- Thin vertical navy left-accent line
  |-- "COMMODITY VIEWS" series label
  |-- Report title + subtitle
  |-- Key takeaways (left column, ~60%): 5-8 bullets with filled-square markers
  |-- Author team (right column, ~40%): Name | Phone | Email | Entity
  |-- Top trades: empty-square markers with bold trade names
  |-- disclaimer bar at bottom
  
Body Pages (page 2 onward) — NO TOC PAGE, flow directly into content
  |-- Running header + thin rule
  |-- Opening thesis paragraph + overview narrative
  |-- Exhibits inline with text (multi-panel charts, tables)
  |-- Thematic sections with bold subheadings in text flow
  |-- Per-commodity deep dives with supply/demand analysis
  |-- ~15-16 exhibits per 19-page report (high exhibit density)

Disclosure Appendix (last 1-2 pages)
  |-- Reg AC certification
  |-- Global product / distributing entities
  |-- General disclosures
  |-- Copyright notice

Exhibit Requirements

• Quantity: Target 15-16 substantial exhibits for a ~19-page report. Each major theme needs 2-4 supporting exhibits.
• Types: Multi-panel time-series (dual-axis), grouped/stacked bar charts, regression scatter plots, data tables, framework diagrams.
• Cross-references: Every exhibit referenced in body text as "(Exhibit N)" or "Exhibit N, left panel"
• Source attribution: Every exhibit has a source line

Workflow

Step 1: Gather Inputs

• Target year/period for the outlook
• Commodity sectors to cover (energy, metals, agriculture)
• Key macro assumptions (GDP growth, Fed policy, geopolitical backdrop)
• Specific trade convictions or views to highlight
• Author/team attribution

Step 2: Build Structure

1. Define 2-4 thematic themes based on macro thesis
2. Map each commodity sector to themes
3. Draft 5-8 key takeaway bullets for cover page
4. Compile 3-4 Top Trades with empty-square markers
5. Plan ~15-16 exhibits with data sources

Step 3: Draft Content

For each theme, follow the narrative pattern:

• Opening thesis → 1-2 paragraph overview
• Macro context → link to top-down story with cross-referenced exhibits
• Supply-side analysis → production, inventories, spare capacity
• Demand-side analysis → regional demand, structural vs cyclical drivers
• Price forecast → base case with bull/bear sensitivity
• Trade recommendation → bold recommendation statement embedded in text

Step 4: Review Checklist

• Cover page has text-only header (NO gradient bars), vertical left accent line
• NO Table of Contents page — flows directly from cover to body
• NO numbered section hierarchy — bold inline subheadings only
• Each theme has 2-4 supporting exhibits
• All ~15-16 exhibits numbered sequentially and cross-referenced
• Source attribution on every exhibit
• Trade recommendations include bold embedded statements + risk factors
• Bull/bear/tail-scenario risks articulated
• Detailed disclosure appendix with Reg AC, regulatory notices, copyright
• Font is Helvetica Neue / Arial (or equivalent geometric sans) — NOT LiberationSans