validating-product-market-fit

name	validating-product-market-fit
description	Score product-market fit from Phase 1B market analysis; produce PMF score, evidence matrix, and risk register. Run after `researching-market` (Phase 2).
compatibility	Designed for Claude Code
metadata	{"stability":"development","allowed-tools":"Read, Write, Glob, Grep, WebSearch, WebFetch","argument-hint":["product-name-or-hypothesis"]}

Validating Product-Market Fit (Phase 2)

Target: $ARGUMENTS

Phase 2 of the GTM pipeline. Depends on Phase 1B. Scores PMF across multiple dimensions using evidence from prior phases.

Mode Awareness

Read config/mode.md before starting:

• concise — Overall PMF score + top 3 evidence points + top 2 risks
• detailed — Full per-dimension scoring, evidence matrix, risk register with mitigations
• conservative — Weight negative evidence heavily; set high evidence bar
• ambitious — Weight leading indicators and analogous market signals; accept proxy evidence

Inputs

• results/phase-1b/market-analysis.md — Market sizing and buyer personas
• results/phase-0/capability-profile.md — Technical capabilities
• results/phase-1a/competitor-map.md — Competitive context
• config/validation_criteria.md — Phase 2 quality gates
• config/mode.md — Style and approach settings

PMF Scoring Dimensions

Score each dimension 1-10, then compute weighted average:

Dimension	Weight	Description
Problem severity	25%	How painful is the problem for buyers?
Solution fit	25%	How well does the product solve it?
Market timing	20%	Is the market ready?
Competitive moat	15%	Can differentiation be sustained?
Distribution path	15%	Is there a clear route to customers?

Workflow

1. Read all Phase 0, 1A, 1B outputs
2. Score each dimension with evidence justification
3. Compute weighted PMF score (0-10)
4. Identify PMF risks — What would invalidate each dimension?
5. Propose mitigations for top risks
6. Validate against criteria — Check config/validation_criteria.md Phase 2 gates

Output

Write to results/phase-2/:

pmf-assessment.md

# Product-Market Fit Assessment

## PMF Score: [X.X] / 10

## Dimension Scores

| Dimension | Score | Evidence |
|-----------|-------|----------|
| Problem severity | [X]/10 | [evidence] |
| Solution fit | [X]/10 | [evidence] |
| Market timing | [X]/10 | [evidence] |
| Competitive moat | [X]/10 | [evidence] |
| Distribution path | [X]/10 | [evidence] |

## Evidence For PMF
- [evidence point] — Source: [phase output or URL]

## Evidence Against PMF
- [counter-evidence] — Source: [phase output or URL]

## PMF Risk Register

| Risk | Likelihood | Impact | Mitigation |
|------|-----------|--------|------------|
| [risk] | H/M/L | H/M/L | [approach] |

## Recommendation
[Proceed to GTM / Iterate on product / Pivot hypothesis]

Rules

• Both supporting and contradicting evidence are mandatory
• Score deflation is preferable to inflation — honest assessment protects GTM investment
• Mitigation suggestions must be actionable, not generic