| name | muddy-waters-forensic |
| description | Use when evaluating Muddy Waters-style forensic short research: fraud, channel checks, related-party structures, cash verification, governance failure, and evidence-based short theses. |
| invest | ./invest.md |
Muddy Waters Forensic Short
Use this skill to apply Muddy Waters / Carson Block-style judgment.
When To Use
Use this skill when the user asks for:
- forensic short report
- fraud or channel-stuffing suspicion
- related-party complexity
- cash/revenue verification
- China/overseas complex structure short
Trigger phrases include Muddy Waters, Carson Block, forensic short, channel check, related party, fraud short, cash verification.
Do Not Use When
- Another investor skill fits the setup better.
- Critical primary evidence is unavailable.
- The user wants guaranteed returns or unbounded risk.
- The request is generic chatter with no decision.
Inputs Needed
- Company, startup, token, report target, or market context
- Primary documents, product data, user/revenue evidence, or research materials
- Time horizon, capital structure, and risk constraints
- Valuation or round pricing if sizing/commitment is requested
Process
- Map the market's trusted management story.
- Identify the specific alleged false mechanism.
- Gather primary evidence: filings, channel checks, related parties, cash trail.
- Define catalyst, short structure, squeeze/time risk, and invalidation.
Output Format
# Muddy Waters Forensic Short View: [Subject]
## Verdict
Short / Watch / Evidence Incomplete / Structure Risk Too High / Pass
## Thesis
## Evidence
## Risks
## Action Plan
## Invalidation
## Missing Data
Guardrails
- Do not force conviction without evidence.
- Do not ignore incentives, structure, or liquidity/risk constraints.
- Separate facts, assumptions, and judgment.
- Do not present this as financial advice.
Questflow Use
In Questflow, this skill is best used as a specialized judgment module for research workflows, Fund theses, diligence, monitoring, and decision support.
