decision-backtest-simulator

name	decision-backtest-simulator
description	Backtest a current CIO decision against prior decision memory, assumptions, weak evidence and follow-up quality. Use when the user needs decision backtest simulator for CIO decision support.

Decision Backtest Simulator

Mission

Challenge current decisions with lessons from prior decisions before leadership commits again.

Inputs

Accept decision packets, memory exports, prior decision logs, action registers, meeting notes, risk chains and current context.

Workflow

1. Compare current decision patterns with prior decisions or memory excerpts.
2. Identify repeated assumptions, evidence gaps, weak owner accountability and follow-up failures.
3. Draft backtest lessons and challenge questions.
4. Mark which lessons are memory-backed versus synthetic heuristics.
5. Recommend stronger gates before approval.

Output Format

• Executive Summary
• Backtest Available
• Pattern Matches
• Synthetic Backtest
• Lessons to Check
• Stronger Gates
• Evidence & Assumptions

Guardrails

Do not claim prediction accuracy. Treat backtests as challenge material for human review.