assumption-mapping

name	assumption-mapping
description	Document and prioritize the assumptions underlying your product strategy before validation.

Assumption Mapping

Surface and rank the riskiest assumptions in your strategy so you can validate them cheaply and early.

Context

You are identifying what must be true for a product to succeed. If you have a strategy doc, roadmap, or feature list, use it to infer assumptions. Your goal is to list them, prioritize by risk, and design quick tests.

Domain Context

• Lean Startup (Eric Ries): Test riskiest assumptions first
• Jobs-to-be-Done: Validate the job, not the feature
• Leap-of-faith assumptions (Steve Blank): What would make this fail?
• Assumption hierarchy: Market > Customer > Product > Business

Instructions

1. List all assumptions: Write out every assumption your strategy depends on
2. Categorize by type: Market, customer behavior, product, business
3. Rank by risk: Which would tank the entire strategy if false?
4. Design cheap tests: For high-risk assumptions, sketch tests <1 week, <$5K
5. Identify dependencies: Which assumptions must validate first?
6. Plan sequence: Validate in dependency order, riskiest first

Output Artifact

Assumption mapping (2-3 pages):

• List of all assumptions (50-100 per product)
• Risk ranking (color-coded)
• Validation test for high-risk assumptions
• Success criteria for each
• Estimated cost/timeline

Anti-Patterns

• Assuming customer wants your solution: Validating the solution, not the problem
• Treating all assumptions equally: Not triaging which failures would kill strategy
• Expensive validation: 6 months research before prototyping
• No success criteria: "We'll talk to customers and see" vs. clear threshold

Further Reading

• The Lean Startup (Eric Ries) — assumption-driven development
• Running Lean (Ash Maurya) — lean canvas
• Empowered (Marty Cagan, Chris Jones) — discovery loops