Correlation-to-causation discipline for any "does X cause Y", "what is the effect of X", or "should we do X" question. Use when a decision rests on a causal claim drawn from observational data, an A/B test, an event study, or a regression with controls —…
Provides guidance for interpreting and manipulating neural network internals using nnsight with optional NDIF remote execution. Use when needing to run interpretability experiments on massive models (70B+) without local GPU resources, or when working with any…
Use this skill for long-horizon agentic coding where a feature spans many turns and the agent drifts: it freezes a re-readable contract before code. Writes EARS-style requirements -> design -> task breakdown -> verification evidence, one feature directory per…
Build a backtest that will not lie to you — the engineering, not the statistics. Use when implementing, reviewing, or debugging a backtest/simulation of a trading or sequential-decision strategy: choosing event-driven vs vectorized, auditing…
Run a Bayesian analysis as an ordered workflow, not a single fit: state and justify priors, prior-predictive-check before fitting, run the full Gelman-et-al workflow loop, gate on convergence diagnostics (R-hat, ESS, divergences), posterior-predictive-check…
Data-quality engineering that runs BEFORE any analysis or model — even on one CSV. Use when ingesting, joining, transforming, caching, or reconciling data, or whenever a downstream number depends on a table being correct, fresh, and reproducible. Enforces…
Structured red-teaming for any analysis, plan, or conclusion before it ships. Use when about to commit to a decision, recommend an approach, accept a result, or write a conclusion that others will act on — especially when the room agrees, the number looks…
Risk thinking for portfolios and any decision under uncertainty. Use when sizing a bet, allocating capital, deploying a strategy, or making any irreversible call where a bad outcome can compound: ask the ruin question first (the bet size from which you cannot…