plan-b

name	plan-b
description	Plan B framework — 6 environmental forces monitoring, pre-mortem 5-step process, scenario planning with auto-trigger points, Devil's Advocate on every proposal, 100-day gate reviews, S-curve awareness, 5 hurdles to Plan B execution, boomerang prevention. Use when preparing contingencies, monitoring environmental changes, or when the current plan shows signs of failure.
type	skill

Plan B Framework

When to Apply

• After finalizing any Strategy Kernel (mandatory)
• During periodic environmental scans
• When early warning KPIs trigger
• When buffer enters YELLOW or RED
• When the founder is emotionally attached to a single plan

Core Framework

6 Environmental Forces

Monitor continuously. Any shift can invalidate the current strategy:

Force	What to Monitor	Trigger
Technology	Competitor launches, new tools, paradigm shifts	New direct competitor or substitute
Cost structure	API costs, tool pricing, entry barriers	Unit economics change >20%
Customer needs	Support themes, feature requests, win/loss	NPS drop >10 or new theme >30% of tickets
Target customer	Cohort behavior, demographic changes	Best-retaining cohort shifts segment
Regulation	Laws, compliance, industry rules	New regulation affecting operations
Social mood	Sentiment, brand perception, trends	Sentiment spike or channel backlash

Multi-force escalation: 2+ forces shifting simultaneously = "Strategy revalidation recommended."

Pre-Mortem (5-Step Process)

1. Assume total failure: "It is 6 months from now. This strategy has completely failed."
2. Enumerate 3-5 specific failure causes (concrete, not vague)
3. For each cause define: prevention, Plan B, early warning KPI, trigger threshold
4. Rank by likelihood x impact
5. Embed triggers into monitoring for automatic Plan B activation

Scenario Planning with Auto-Triggers

Four scenarios with QUANTITATIVE trigger points:

Scenario	Trigger	Auto-Response
OPTIMISTIC	Exceeds target by 20%+	Continue scaling, increase targets
BASE	80-120% of target	Maintain strategy, increase constraint effort
PESSIMISTIC	Buffer RED + growth <3%/week for 3 weeks	Auto-activate Plan B
CATASTROPHIC	Buffer >90% + negative growth for 2 weeks	Full strategy reset

Auto-activation removes bias. Pre-commit to switching. Don't decide in the moment when sunk cost fallacy, loss aversion, and status quo bias are strongest.

Devil's Advocate (On Every Proposal)

Standard output, not optional add-on:

Proposed: "Launch LinkedIn content campaign targeting CTOs"

Devil's Advocate:
  1. "LinkedIn organic reach declining ~15% YoY."
  2. "Segment data shows email outperforms for >$50K deals."
  3. "Requires ~10h/week founder time — 25% of capacity."

  Risk: MODERATE
  Plan B if underperforms: Warm intros via mutual connections.
  Review gate: 30 days.

100-Day Gate Reviews

After any Plan B activation:

Day 30:  [milestone] -> continue / modify / exit?
Day 60:  [milestone] -> continue / modify / exit?
Day 100: [milestone] -> continue / modify / exit?

Each gate has explicit, measurable decision criteria. Prevents drifting in the new plan.

S-Curve Awareness

Monitor where each Driver/channel sits on its lifecycle:

Stage	Agent Behavior
Introduction	High effort, low returns — expected. Keep investing.
Growth	Returns accelerating — prepare Plan B NOW
Maturity	Returns plateauing — activate diversification
Decline	Returns dropping — Plan B should already be active

Critical insight: Plan B must be PREPARED during the growth phase. During decline, it's too late — you're reacting, not preparing.

5 Hurdles to Plan B Execution

Obstacles that prevent organizations from switching to Plan B:

Hurdle	Description	Countermeasure
Sunk cost attachment	"We've invested too much to stop"	Pre-committed stop conditions (defined at launch)
Identity attachment	"This is my idea / my baby"	Reframe: "The goal is the outcome, not the method"
Status quo bias	"Maybe it'll turn around"	Quantitative triggers remove judgment from decision
Loss aversion	"Stopping feels like losing"	Frame as "redirecting resources to higher-impact approach"
Social commitment	"We told investors/team this plan"	Distinguish pitch narrative from operational reality

Boomerang Prevention

When switching to Plan B, ensure you don't oscillate back to Plan A:

Plan B Activation:
  1. Log WHY Plan A was abandoned (specific data, not feelings)
  2. Define conditions under which Plan A would be reconsidered
     (must be DIFFERENT conditions, not just "things got better")
  3. Set minimum commitment period for Plan B (typically 60-90 days)
  4. Track Plan B independently — don't compare to Plan A's
     peak performance (cherry-picking)

The agent monitors for oscillation patterns (A->B->A) and halts: "You're oscillating. Each reversal wastes accumulated progress. Commit to the current plan for [minimum period] before reconsidering."

Decision Rules

1. Plan B is mandatory — no Strategy Kernel without contingency
2. Auto-triggers are pre-committed — quantitative, not judgment-based
3. Devil's Advocate on every proposal — standard output, not optional
4. Prepare during growth — S-curve timing is critical
5. 100-day gates after activation — prevent drifting
6. No oscillation — minimum commitment period before switching back
7. 5 hurdles are psychological — countermeasures are structural (pre-commitment, triggers)

Anti-Patterns to Detect

Anti-Pattern	Signal	Response
Single-plan thinking	No Plan B defined	"What happens if this fails? Define triggers and alternatives now."
Late preparation	No contingency until crisis	"S-curve: prepare Plan B during growth, not decline."
Bias-driven switching	Emotional reaction to single bad week	"Check against pre-committed triggers. Single-week data is noise."
Oscillation	A->B->A pattern	"Each reversal wastes progress. Commit for [minimum period]."
Plan B avoidance	Triggered conditions ignored	"Pre-committed conditions met. Present the switching decision."
Missing Devil's Advocate	Proposal without counter-arguments	"Every proposal includes structured counter-arguments. Add them."