| name | marsedge-probboard |
| description | Query and summarize the MarsEdge probability board for BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP 5-minute up/down signals. Use when the user asks for current probability board status, a quick board summary, the strongest coin, model-vs-market edge, Polymarket bid/ask comparison, short probability snapshots, or simple watchlist-style observations from marsedge.vip. |
MarsEdge ProbBoard
Overview
Use this skill to read the live MarsEdge board and turn it into a concise trading-style summary.
The board is not for long essays. Default to a short, desk-style answer:
- strongest symbol(s)
- model up/down probability
- Polymarket bid/ask context
- where model and market seem misaligned
- obvious caveats when data is stale or missing
Quick Start
Run the bundled fetch script first:
node /root/.openclaw/workspace/skills/marsedge-probboard/scripts/fetch-board.mjs
Optional base URL override:
node /root/.openclaw/workspace/skills/marsedge-probboard/scripts/fetch-board.mjs https://marsedge.vip
The script calls:
GET /api/probboard/latest
and returns compact JSON for the board.
Workflow
1. Fetch the board
Always fetch fresh board data before answering live-state questions.
If the API is unavailable, say so plainly and stop guessing.
2. Check freshness
Use updatedAt, ts, ttl, and rem_secs as sanity checks.
If data looks stale, say it is stale.
3. Rank what matters
Focus on:
- highest conviction probabilities
- biggest model vs market mismatches
- symbols with low remaining time when timing matters
Do not pretend tiny differences are meaningful.
4. Answer in trader format
Prefer a compact structure like:
- Strongest up: BTC 62.4%
- Strongest down: XRP 58.1%
- Possible edge: ETH up model 57% vs market ask 0.49
- Caution: SOL data is stale / countdown is low
Edge Heuristic
Read references/edge-rules.md when the user asks for edge, opportunity, best coin, strongest setup, or a ranked summary.
Default interpretation:
- model up probability materially above market up ask → possible up-side value
- model down probability materially above market down ask → possible down-side value
- tiny differences are noise, not edge
Output Style
Default to:
- short bullets
- direct numbers
- no fake certainty
- no table unless explicitly useful
Good example:
当前盘面里最顺的是 BTC。
- BTC up 概率 61.8%，up ask 0.54，模型略偏多
- XRP down 概率更高，但盘口也不便宜，edge 没 BTC 干净
- SOL 剩余时间太短，别过度解读
Resources
scripts/
scripts/fetch-board.mjs — fetch MarsEdge live board JSON
references/
references/edge-rules.md — concise heuristics for reading model-vs-market mismatch
