| name | failure-chain-tracing |
| description | Tactic: Trace upstream causes and downstream effects of each failure mode. Builds multi-level cause-mode-effect chains for systemic understanding. |
| type | tactic |
| strategies | ["prospective-hindsight","design-fmea","process-fmea"] |
| dependencies | {"sops":["failure-chain-construction","severity-scoring"]} |
Failure Chain Tracing Tactic
Trace each failure mode both upstream (root causes) and downstream (cascading effects) to build complete causal chains.
Orchestration
- Start from identified failure mode
- failure-chain-construction traces upstream:
- Why could this mode occur? (immediate cause)
- Why could that cause occur? (root cause)
- Repeat to budget depth (2/4/6 levels)
- failure-chain-construction traces downstream:
- What effect does this mode produce? (local effect)
- What does that effect cause? (system-level effect)
- What is the end impact? (customer/stakeholder effect)
- Chain validated for logical consistency
- Shared causes across multiple modes flagged as systemic risks
Depth Control
- Budget S: 2 levels (immediate cause → mode → local effect)
- Budget M: 4 levels (root cause → ... → system effect)
- Budget L: 6 levels (full chain with environmental factors)
Subagents Dispatched
- failure-chain-construction (upstream and downstream tracing)
- severity-scoring (end-effect severity assessment)
Termination Conditions
- Chain depth exhausted per budget
- Root cause reached (no further upstream cause identifiable)
- End effect reached (stakeholder-level impact identified)
- Circular dependency detected (flag and stop)
Available SOPs
Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.
| SOP | When to use |
|---|
| failure-chain-construction | Build cause-mode-effect chains tracing upstream root causes and downstream cascading effects for each failure mode. |
| severity-scoring | Rate failure mode severity 1-10 based on end-effect impact. Follows AIAG-VDA severity scale calibrated for research artifacts. |
