minimal-change-search

name	minimal-change-search
description	Tactic: Generate candidate changes, detect flip-points where conclusion reverses, measure fragility as distance to nearest flip.
type	tactic
strategies	["closest-worlds","thought-experiment","factor-removal"]
dependencies	{"sops":["causal-claim-extraction","counterfactual-scenario-construction","factor-enumeration","flip-point-detection","fragility-measurement"]}

Minimal Change Search Tactic

Find the smallest perturbation that flips the conclusion — closer flip-points mean higher fragility.

Orchestration

1. causal-claim-extraction identifies the conclusion to test
2. factor-enumeration generates candidate change dimensions
3. counterfactual-scenario-construction builds scenarios with graduated changes
4. flip-point-detection binary-searches for the minimal change that flips
5. fragility-measurement computes distance from actuality to flip-point
6. Repeat for each dimension within budget
7. Report: nearest flip-point, fragility index, most vulnerable dimension

Search Strategy

• Start with large changes (clearly flips or clearly holds)
• Binary search between hold/flip boundary
• Record the minimal change magnitude per dimension
• Fragility = 1 / (distance to nearest flip-point)

Subagents Dispatched

• causal-claim-extraction (conclusion identification)
• factor-enumeration (dimension generation)
• counterfactual-scenario-construction (graduated scenarios)
• flip-point-detection (binary search)
• fragility-measurement (distance computation)

Termination Conditions

• All dimensions searched within budget
• Flip-point found with distance < threshold (extremely fragile)
• No flip-point found after maximum search depth (robust)

Available SOPs

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

SOP	When to use
causal-claim-extraction	Extract all causal claims (X causes Y, X leads to Y, X enables Y) from an artifact, producing a structured list of cause-effect pairs.
counterfactual-scenario-construction	Construct precise, internally consistent counterfactual scenarios where specified factors are altered, then reason about the resulting conclusion.
factor-enumeration	List all key factors, conditions, and assumptions that support or enable the artifact's conclusion.
flip-point-detection	Find the minimal change magnitude along a dimension that causes the conclusion to flip from true to false.
fragility-measurement	Compute a fragility index from flip-point distances and degradation scores, summarizing how robust the conclusion is.