scenario-planning

name	scenario-planning
description	What might the future look like — construct multiple future scenarios, assess research approach robustness under different assumptions
version	1.0.0
category	experiment-execution
type	campaign
strategies	["morphological-scenario","narrative-scenario","stress-scenario","competitive-scenario","temporal-scenario"]
dependencies	{"strategies":["competitive-scenario","morphological-scenario","narrative-scenario","stress-scenario","temporal-scenario"],"sops":["context-checkpoint","context-init","experiment-execution-paper-overview","experiment-execution-paper-research","experiment-execution-paper-search","experiment-execution-quality-gate-check","experiment-execution-saturation-detection","experiment-execution-web-research","experiment-execution-web-search","scenario-synthesis"]}

Campaign: Scenario Planning

HARD-GATE

Before launching this campaign, verify:

1. Research direction defined — A clear research approach or hypothesis exists to stress-test
2. Uncertainty acknowledged — The team recognizes key unknowns that could invalidate the approach
3. Time horizon specified — Short (6mo), medium (2yr), or long (5yr+) planning window declared
4. Stakeholder buy-in — Decision-makers agree that scenario analysis will inform strategy

If any gate fails, STOP and resolve before proceeding.

Campaign Goal

Construct a portfolio of plausible future scenarios spanning the uncertainty space, then assess how robust our research approach is under each scenario. The output is a robustness index plus contingency triggers that tell us when to pivot.

Strategy Selection

Strategy	Question	When to Use
morphological-scenario	What are all possible combinations?	Systematic enumeration of all factor combinations needed
narrative-scenario	What is the story of each future?	Rich qualitative understanding of scenario dynamics needed
stress-scenario	What is the worst case?	Risk assessment and failure preparedness needed
competitive-scenario	What will competitors do?	Competitive landscape awareness needed
temporal-scenario	How does it evolve over time?	Technology evolution and timing decisions needed

Budget Gate

Component	Token Budget	Subagent Calls
Driver identification	8K	1
Parameter enumeration	10K	1
Consistency filtering	15K	2
Narrative construction	12K per scenario	1 per scenario
Impact assessment	10K per scenario	1 per scenario
Robustness scoring	8K	1
Synthesis	12K	1
Total (5 scenarios)	~130K	~15

Context Management

• Each SOP runs as a subagent with isolated context
• Strategy-level orchestrator maintains scenario registry
• Pass scenario IDs (not full content) between steps
• Final synthesis receives summaries, not raw outputs

Minimum Yield

A successful campaign produces at minimum:

• 3+ internally consistent scenarios spanning the uncertainty space
• Robustness score for the research approach (0-100)
• At least 1 identified pivot trigger with threshold condition
• Contingency action for each scenario where robustness < 50

Context Recording

研究过程经 context-management 落盘，与最终报告分属不同文件：

1. 进入本 campaign 时：import context-init，topic-slug 传 scenario-planning， 建立本 campaign 的过程 context 文件。init 幂等——同 Phase 重入返回原文件。
2. 每个 strategy 完成后：import context-checkpoint（硬约束，不可跳过），把该 strategy 的过程与中间产出 append 进上一步的过程文件。
3. 最终报告不写进这个过程文件——由本 campaign 的 synthesis SOP（scenario-synthesis） 另起 scenario-planning-report 文件落盘（见该 SOP）。

Available Strategies

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

Strategy	When to use
competitive-scenario	What will competitors do? — Competitive method progress prediction and time window analysis
morphological-scenario	What are all possible combinations? — Zwicky Box construction with CCA consistency filtering for systematic scenario enumeration
narrative-scenario	What is the story of each future? — Shell method narrative construction for rich qualitative scenario understanding
stress-scenario	What is the worst case? — Extreme condition construction and failure mode enumeration for risk preparedness
temporal-scenario	How does it evolve over time? — Short/medium/long-term timeline projection with technology maturity curves

Available SOPs

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

SOP	When to use
context-checkpoint	Append research process and results to the current Phase's context file. Each append MUST contain >=500 lines of markdown covering both process and results. Use this skill at plan-designated checkpoint points — typically after each strategy completes or at key decision nodes within a research Phase.
context-init	Create a new context file for a research Phase. Called once at Phase start to initialize the file that subsequent context-checkpoint calls will append to. Use this skill whenever a new research Phase begins and a fresh context file is needed.
experiment-execution-paper-overview	Import SOP: paper landscape scan (from literature-engine skill)
experiment-execution-paper-research	Import SOP: paper full-text reading (from literature-engine skill)
experiment-execution-paper-search	Import SOP: paper AI summary reading (from literature-engine skill)
experiment-execution-quality-gate-check	Shared SOP: verify quality gate criteria are met before proceeding
experiment-execution-saturation-detection	Shared SOP: detect information saturation — know when to stop searching/analyzing
experiment-execution-web-research	Import SOP: deep full-page content analysis (from web-browsing skill)
experiment-execution-web-search	Import SOP: quick web scan discovery (from web-browsing skill)
scenario-synthesis	Comprehensive scenario analysis report synthesizing all scenario work