| name | scenario-planning |
| description | What might the future look like — construct multiple future scenarios, assess research approach robustness under different assumptions |
| version | 1.0.0 |
| category | experiment-execution |
| type | campaign |
| strategies | ["morphological-scenario","narrative-scenario","stress-scenario","competitive-scenario","temporal-scenario"] |
| dependencies | {"strategies":["competitive-scenario","morphological-scenario","narrative-scenario","stress-scenario","temporal-scenario"],"sops":["context-checkpoint","context-init","experiment-execution-paper-overview","experiment-execution-paper-research","experiment-execution-paper-search","experiment-execution-quality-gate-check","experiment-execution-saturation-detection","experiment-execution-web-research","experiment-execution-web-search","scenario-synthesis"]} |
Campaign: Scenario Planning
HARD-GATE
Before launching this campaign, verify:
- Research direction defined — A clear research approach or hypothesis exists to stress-test
- Uncertainty acknowledged — The team recognizes key unknowns that could invalidate the approach
- Time horizon specified — Short (6mo), medium (2yr), or long (5yr+) planning window declared
- Stakeholder buy-in — Decision-makers agree that scenario analysis will inform strategy
If any gate fails, STOP and resolve before proceeding.
Campaign Goal
Construct a portfolio of plausible future scenarios spanning the uncertainty space, then assess how robust our research approach is under each scenario. The output is a robustness index plus contingency triggers that tell us when to pivot.
Strategy Selection
| Strategy | Question | When to Use |
|---|
| morphological-scenario | What are all possible combinations? | Systematic enumeration of all factor combinations needed |
| narrative-scenario | What is the story of each future? | Rich qualitative understanding of scenario dynamics needed |
| stress-scenario | What is the worst case? | Risk assessment and failure preparedness needed |
| competitive-scenario | What will competitors do? | Competitive landscape awareness needed |
| temporal-scenario | How does it evolve over time? | Technology evolution and timing decisions needed |
Budget Gate
| Component | Token Budget | Subagent Calls |
|---|
| Driver identification | 8K | 1 |
| Parameter enumeration | 10K | 1 |
| Consistency filtering | 15K | 2 |
| Narrative construction | 12K per scenario | 1 per scenario |
| Impact assessment | 10K per scenario | 1 per scenario |
| Robustness scoring | 8K | 1 |
| Synthesis | 12K | 1 |
