deep-insight-sensitivity-analysis

name	deep-insight-sensitivity-analysis
description	Sensitivity Analysis Campaign — identify which assumptions are most critical by measuring their impact on conclusions. 5 strategies (parameter-screening, variance-decomposition, assumption-criticality, uncertainty-propagation, decision-sensitivity), 3 tactics, 11 subagent SOPs.
execution	campaign
dependencies	{"strategies":["assumption-criticality","decision-sensitivity","parameter-screening","uncertainty-propagation","variance-decomposition"],"sops":["context-checkpoint","context-init"]}

Sensitivity Analysis

Identify which assumptions are most critical — rank by impact on conclusions.

Design Philosophy

This campaign is a strategy book — CC reads, internalizes, and autonomously constructs an approach.

Strategy Routing

Signal	Strategy
quick screening, Morris method, OAT, preliminary elimination	→ parameter-screening
variance decomposition, Sobol indices, contribution, interaction effects	→ variance-decomposition
assumption criticality, perturbation, negation, re-derivation	→ assumption-criticality
uncertainty propagation, Monte Carlo, distributions, Bayesian	→ uncertainty-propagation
decision sensitivity, EVPI, influence diagrams, tornado diagrams	→ decision-sensitivity

Available Tactics

• screening-then-decomposition — Morris quick screen then Sobol precise decomposition
• assumption-perturbation — one-at-a-time assumption negation and re-derivation
• uncertainty-cascade — Monte Carlo propagation through model

Available SOPs

Import (5): web-search, web-research, paper-overview, paper-search, paper-research

Subagent (11): morris-screening, sobol-decomposition, interaction-detection, assumption-extraction, negation-definition, re-derivation, conclusion-sensitivity-measurement, distribution-assignment, monte-carlo-sampling, critical-path-identification, sensitivity-synthesis

Shared (1): assumption-surfacing

Context Management

context-checkpoint after each strategy completes.

Available Strategies

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

Strategy	When to use
assumption-criticality	Measure how much conclusions change when each assumption is negated. Ranks assumptions by their impact on the final result.
decision-sensitivity	Identify which uncertainties would actually change the research direction decision. Compute EVPI to prioritize uncertainty reduction.
parameter-screening	Quick Morris method screening to identify which parameters have large effects and which can be safely ignored.
uncertainty-propagation	Propagate input uncertainties through the model via Monte Carlo sampling. Identifies which input uncertainties contribute most to output uncertainty.
variance-decomposition	Sobol variance decomposition — compute first-order and total-order sensitivity indices to quantify each parameter's contribution to output variance.

Available SOPs

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

SOP	When to use
context-checkpoint	Append research process and results to the current Phase's context file. Each append MUST contain >=500 lines of markdown covering both process and results. Use this skill at plan-designated checkpoint points — typically after each strategy completes or at key decision nodes within a research Phase.
context-init	Create a new context file for a research Phase. Called once at Phase start to initialize the file that subsequent context-checkpoint calls will append to. Use this skill whenever a new research Phase begins and a fresh context file is needed.