clarion-regime-check

name	clarion-regime-check
description	Reads the SPY/TLT/RSP color regime and the equity hurdle rate. Use when the user asks about the market regime, risk-on / risk-off, market color, SPY/TLT regime, breadth, or what hurdle rate to use for new positions. Pulls daily bars via yfinance (cached locally). Optionally accepts a 1Y T-bill yield to compute the equity hurdle rate. Requires clarion-setup to have been run.
metadata	{"author":"cis.zo.computer","category":"External","display-name":"Clarion Regime Check","homepage":"https://github.com/jingerzz/clarion-intelligence-system"}

Clarion regime check

Reports the current market regime color (GREEN / BLUE / ORANGE / RED / DANGER) and, if a risk-free rate is supplied, the equity hurdle rate.

When to use

User asks any of:

• "What's the market regime?"
• "Is the market risk-on or risk-off?"
• "What color is SPY/TLT today?"
• "What's the breadth signal?"
• "What hurdle rate should I use for new positions?"

How to run

python /home/workspace/clarion-intelligence-system/skills/clarion-regime-check/scripts/regime.py

If the user mentioned a 1Y T-bill yield, risk-free rate, or "rf rate", pass it (a percent value, no % sign):

python ... regime.py --rf-rate-pct 4.5

If the user wants the latest cached read without re-fetching from yfinance:

python ... regime.py --offline

Output

The script prints a structured markdown report:

• Heading — color and as-of date
• Rationale — a short paragraph stating which signal triggered the color
• Signals table — SPY 20d return, TLT 20d return, RSP-SPY 60d spread, SPY 252d drawdown
• Hurdle rate — only when --rf-rate-pct is supplied
• Footer — sources and timestamp

Pass the script output through to the user verbatim. Do not paraphrase the numbers or invent a new format.

If the user asks what a color means — e.g. "what does ORANGE imply?" or "how should I size positions in this regime?" — load references/regime-color-guide.md and answer from it.

On error

If the script prints REGIME_ERROR: ..., surface the error to the user. Common cases:

• empty history for SPY / TLT / RSP — yfinance returned no rows. Network glitch or rate limit. Suggest waiting a minute and retrying, or running with --offline if there's a recent cache.
• need at least 61 bars — the workspace is brand new and the cache hasn't backfilled enough history. Tell the user to wait for the first full fetch (the script will fetch ~5 years on first run).