strategize

name	strategize
description	Design identification strategy or pre-analysis plans using Strategist plus strategist-critic. Use when the user asks for a causal design, robustness plan, falsification tests, estimator choice, or a PAP.

Strategize

Design an identification strategy or pre-analysis plan by dispatching the Strategist (proposer) and strategist-critic (validator).

Read First

• AGENTS.md
• plugins/clo-author/references/runtime-activation.md
• plugins/clo-author/references/codex-workflow.md
• plugins/clo-author/references/agent-catalog.md
• plugins/clo-author/references/critic-runtime-contract.md
• plugins/clo-author/references/domain-profile.md
• plugins/clo-author/references/logging.md
• templates/decision-record.md when a major strategy choice is being locked

Modes

• Identification strategy
• Pre-analysis plan
• Interactive PAP interview

Identification Strategy Workflow

Step 1: Gather Inputs

1. Read the research spec, literature review, and data assessment if they exist.
2. Read plugins/clo-author/references/domain-profile.md for common identification patterns and referee concerns in the field.
3. If key requirements are still unclear, create a spec before proceeding.

Step 2: Produce a Pre-Strategy Report

Before proposing a design, produce a Pre-Strategy Report that states:

• which research spec, literature review, and data assessment files were found
• whether the domain profile was loaded
• the current research question in one sentence
• the key findings from the literature and the data variation available
• any missing inputs that will be carried forward as explicit [ASSUMED] items

Step 3: Dispatch Strategist

The Strategist should produce:

• a strategy memo with design choice, estimand, treatment, comparison group, and assumptions
• pseudo-code or implementation sketch for the main estimation
• a robustness plan ordered by priority
• falsification tests that should not show effects
• top referee objections with proposed responses

The strategy memo should cover:

• estimand
• estimator
• identifying assumptions
• threats to inference
• robustness plan
• falsification tests

Step 4: Dispatch strategist-critic

Run strategist-critic review through plugins/clo-author/references/active-critics/strategist-critic.md before treating the design as approved. The strategist-critic should review through the preserved four-phase protocol:

1. Claim identification
2. Core design validity
3. Inference soundness
4. Polish and completeness

The review must produce:

• a saved review report under quality_reports/
• severity-labelled issues
• a score
• an approval state for the research journal

Step 5: Revision Loop

If CRITICAL issues found, iterate (max 3 rounds per three-strikes rule).

• Round 1: strategist revises from the critic's blocking issues
• Round 2: strategist-critic re-reviews the revised memo
• Round 3: if still blocked, escalate to the user because the disagreement is strategic rather than editorial

The design is not approved until the saved strategist-critic artefact clears the active gate.

Step 6: Save Outputs

Save to:

• quality_reports/strategy_memo_[topic].md
• quality_reports/strategy_memo_[topic]_review.md
• quality_reports/decisions/strategy_[topic].md when a design choice is locked

Append a research-journal entry with round number, score, approval, report path, and next actor.

PAP Workflow

When the user asks for a PAP, adapt the strategy output into the requested registration format.

Interactive PAP Interview

For an interactive PAP flow, ask for:

1. the research question
2. the study design
3. the primary outcomes
4. the source of identifying variation or assignment mechanism
5. pre-specified subgroup analyses
6. the multiple-testing plan

PAP Requirements

The PAP should specify:

• study overview
• outcomes
• estimating equations
• subgroup analyses
• multiple-testing correction
• power assumptions when relevant
• sample and exclusion rules
• data and analysis plan
• timeline
• deviations log template

Mark every unresolved item with [ASSUMED], and end with a review checklist so the user can confirm assumptions before registration.

Principles

• Strategist proposes, strategist-critic critiques.
• The strategy memo is the contract for later execution.
• Catch design problems before code is written.
• Multiple candidate strategies are acceptable, but the approved path must be explicit.
• The user resolves strategic deadlocks after the third failed round.