dt-obs-predictive-analytics

name	dt-obs-predictive-analytics
description	Predictive analytics for Dynatrace — time series forecasting with the timeseries-forecast tool, capacity saturation planning, trend and anomaly detection across hosts, services, and infrastructure.
license	Apache-2.0

Predictive Analytics Skill

Forecast resource saturation, detect trends, analyze anomalies, and characterize signal behavior using DQL and Dynatrace analyzer tools.

Analysis Disciplines

#	Discipline	Use when …
1	Forecast and Prediction	Predicting future metric values for capacity planning, cost estimation, or proactive alerting
2	Detecting Changes	A metric shifted — find when the character of the signal changed, regardless of whether it crossed a limit
3	Detecting Violations	A metric is currently out of bounds — find entities that exceed or fall below an acceptable range
4	Timeseries Characteristics	Characterizing a signal's seasonality, noise level, and trend before further analysis

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Choosing the Right Detection Tool

The single most important decision: are you asking "did this metric change?" or "is this metric currently wrong?"

Question	Tool	Why
"Did this metric change in the last N hours?"	timeseries-novelty-detection	Detects when the signal's character changed (spike, step, trend onset, variability shift) without requiring a known acceptable limit
"Which services spiked or dropped recently?"	timeseries-novelty-detection with SPIKE / CHANGE_IN_VALUES	Finds the specific entities and timestamps where change occurred; returns empty for stable signals
"When did CPU start trending up?"	timeseries-novelty-detection with TREND_IN_VALUES	Pinpoints the onset of a directional shift
"Which hosts are currently above 90% CPU?"	static-threshold-analyzer	Known fixed limit — fire alerts when exceeded
"Which services are currently above their usual load?"	adaptive-anomaly-detector	Learns the normal distribution from the data and flags sustained threshold violations
"Which services are high right now vs. their weekly pattern?"	seasonal-baseline-anomaly-detector	Accounts for time-of-day/day-of-week patterns before deciding what is anomalous

Decision rule in plain language

• Use timeseries-novelty-detection when the question contains "changed", "shifted", "spiked", "dropped", "started", "when did", or "did anything unusual happen". The tool answers whether a change occurred and when. It requires no predefined threshold.
• Use an anomaly detector (adaptive, seasonal, or static) when the question is about ongoing or current state relative to an expected range: "which are highest", "who is violating", "what is above X". These tools count violation samples inside a sliding window — they confirm how long something has been bad, not whether the signal changed.

Pitfall: Running adaptive-anomaly-detector on a broad fleet to answer "which service changed load?" typically flags every service that has any variation, producing low-signal results. Use timeseries-novelty-detection first to identify entities where the load character genuinely shifted, then use the anomaly detectors to measure the severity of those specific signals.

When to Use This Skill

• Capacity: "Which hosts will hit 90% CPU in the next 30 days?"
• Forecast: "Forecast service request volume for the next 7 days"
• Trend: "Is memory usage growing across our Kubernetes nodes?"
• Anomaly: "Which services have unusual error rates right now?"
• Baseline: "How does today's traffic compare to last week?"
• Signal profile: "Is this metric seasonal or trending before I set up alerting?"

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Important Constraints

Dynatrace Forecast Analyzer supports univariate forecasting only — predicting one metric based on its own historical values. Multivariate forecasting (using multiple metrics as inputs) requires external tools (Python, R, Azure AutoML).

Tooling Rule: Run analyses using Dynatrace tools: timeseries-forecast, adaptive-anomaly-detector, seasonal-baseline-anomaly-detector, static-threshold-analyzer, and timeseries-novelty-detection. Use execute-dql for DQL queries.

Result Analysis Rule: Always analyse and summarise results directly from the raw tool output. Derive all numbers, trends, and conclusions inline.

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Result Presentation Format

Always present forecast results as a structured table:

Column	Content
Rank	🥇 🥈 🥉 ordered by urgency or magnitude
Signal / Entity	Metric name and entity or dimension
Last Actual	Most recent non-null value from the historical series
Forecast	Point forecast at the end of the horizon
Range	Lower – Upper confidence band at the same horizon point
Trend	% change from Last Actual to Forecast: 🔴 >+20% / 🟠 +5–20% / 🟢 ±5% stable / 🔵 −5–20% declining / ⚫ <−20% sharp drop
Action	✅ No action / ⚠️ Monitor / 🔴 Act now

Always follow the table with a Key Findings section (3–5 bullet points, ranked by priority).

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Core DQL Techniques

DQL has no native forecast function. For forward-looking forecasts, use timeseries-forecast (see references/forecasting-analyzer.md).

Key DQL Rules

1. timeseries returns arrays — one value per time slot per entity
2. arrayLast(arr) = most recent value; arrayFirst(arr) = oldest
3. Growth = (arrayLast - arrayFirst) / number_of_intervals
4. Always filter isNotNull(field) before sorting to avoid null ordering issues
5. Use toLong() when dividing Long fields to avoid type errors
6. Use dt.smartscape.* not deprecated dt.entity.* in DQL display fields; use dt.smartscape.* in by:{} grouping clauses for entity-level queries

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Standard Query Patterns

Moving Average Trend

timeseries cpu = avg(dt.host.cpu.usage), from: now()-24h, interval: 1h, by: {dt.smartscape.host}
| fieldsAdd moving_avg = arrayMovingAvg(cpu, 4)
| fieldsAdd current = arrayLast(cpu)
| fieldsAdd trend = arrayLast(cpu) - arrayFirst(cpu)
| filter isNotNull(current)
| sort trend desc
| limit 20
| fields dt.smartscape.host, current, trend, moving_avg

Saturation Risk Classification

timeseries cpu = avg(dt.host.cpu.usage), from: now()-7d, interval: 1h, by: {dt.smartscape.host}
| fieldsAdd p95 = arrayPercentile(cpu, 95)
| fieldsAdd saturation_risk = if(p95 > 85, "HIGH", else: if(p95 > 70, "MEDIUM", else: "LOW"))
| filter isNotNull(p95)
| sort p95 desc
| fields dt.smartscape.host, p95, saturation_risk

Days to Saturation Forecast

timeseries cpu = avg(dt.host.cpu.usage), from: now()-30d, interval: 1d, by: {dt.smartscape.host}
| fieldsAdd current = arrayLast(cpu)
| fieldsAdd daily_growth = (arrayLast(cpu) - arrayFirst(cpu)) / 30
| filter isNotNull(current)
| fieldsAdd days_to_saturation = if(daily_growth > 0, toLong((90 - current) / daily_growth), else: 9999)
| sort days_to_saturation asc
| limit 20
| fields dt.smartscape.host, current, daily_growth, days_to_saturation

Anomaly Scoring

timeseries cpu = avg(dt.host.cpu.usage), from: now()-24h, interval: 1h, by: {dt.smartscape.host}
| fieldsAdd baseline_avg = arrayAvg(cpu)
| fieldsAdd current = arrayLast(cpu)
| fieldsAdd anomaly_score = if(isNotNull(current) and isNotNull(baseline_avg), abs(current - baseline_avg), else: 0)
| sort anomaly_score desc
| limit 20
| fields dt.smartscape.host, current, baseline_avg, anomaly_score

Metric Discovery

Before forecasting, discover available metrics by keyword:

metrics from: now() - 1h
| filter contains(metric.key, "cpu")
| summarize count(), by: {metric.key}
| sort `count()` desc

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Reference Guides

• references/forecasting-analyzer.md — timeseries-forecast tool: data requirements, parameter reference, interval selection, horizon limits, common pitfalls
• references/capacity-forecasting.md — CPU/memory/disk/K8s saturation forecasts; multi-resource risk scoring; days-to-saturation DQL patterns
• references/anomaly-scoring.md — adaptive-anomaly-detector, seasonal-baseline-anomaly-detector, static-threshold-analyzer; DQL deviation scoring
• references/novelty-detection.md — timeseries-novelty-detection tool: spike, drop, step change, trend onset, and variability change detection; all novelty types; parameter reference; worked examples
• references/trend-detection.md — timeseries-novelty-detection for trend onset and change points; week-over-week joins; growth rate and acceleration detection

Related Skills

• dt-dql-essentials — DQL syntax, timeseries command rules, array function reference
• dt-obs-hosts — Host and process metrics catalog
• dt-obs-services — Service RED metrics for service-level trend analysis
• dt-obs-problems — Davis AI problem history for anomaly correlation