pre-quali

name	pre-quali
description	Pre-qualifying pick analysis for the current F1 round. Re-runs the optimizer notebook with latest practice data, recommends a pick, and writes a diary entry. Use before qualifying each race weekend.
argument-hint	[round-number]

Prepare the pick for Round $ARGUMENTS before the qualifying deadline.

All paths below are relative to the project root.

Steps

1. Read the picks diary (analysis/picks-diary-2026.md) — review all previous learnings, pecking order observations, reliability flags, and model calibration notes. These MUST inform your recommendation.

2. Check the notebook state — read the CURRENT_ROUND, MY_PICKS, and ACTUAL_POINTS in the notebook (analysis/picks_analysis.ipynb) to confirm season progress.

3. Update CURRENT_ROUND in the notebook to round $ARGUMENTS if it isn't already set.

4. Re-execute the notebook in-place from the analysis/ directory:

   cd analysis && uv run jupyter nbconvert --to notebook --execute --inplace --ExecutePreprocessor.allow_errors=True picks_analysis.ipynb
   

5. Read the optimizer output from analysis/optimal_picks_2026.csv to see the recommended pick for this round.

6. Search the notebook output for the FP-adjusted expected points for the current round (grep for "Adjusted expected points for R$ARGUMENTS") to see how practice data shifted the rankings.

7. Formulate a recommendation considering:

   • The optimizer's pick and expected points
   • Practice session adjustments (FP1/FP2/FP3 or FP1-only for sprint rounds)
   • Learnings from previous rounds in the diary (team performance vs model, reliability, practice-to-race translation)
   • Whether the optimizer's pick is a BOOM-BUST driver and if there's a safer alternative nearby
   • Which top drivers are still available and whether this is a good round to spend them

8. Present the pick summary to the user:

   • Recommended driver, expected points, consistency profile
   • Why this driver at this circuit
   • Top 3 alternatives with expected points
   • Any relevant diary learnings that influenced the recommendation
   • Risk assessment

9. Write the diary entry — append a new round section to analysis/picks-diary-2026.md (before the --- separator and Template section) using the template format. Include:

   • Pick and reasoning
   • Alternatives considered
   • Leave the Result and Learnings sections as _TBD — update after race_

10. Update MY_PICKS in the notebook with the chosen driver for this round (but do NOT re-execute — that happens post-race).

Important notes

• Sprint weekends (R2, R6, R7, R11, R14, R18) only have FP1 data before the pick deadline
• Normal weekends have FP1, FP2, FP3 data available
• The pick deadline is 10 minutes before qualifying (or sprint qualifying for sprint weekends)
• Always ask the user to confirm the pick before writing it to the notebook
• If the user provides no round number, check the notebook's CURRENT_ROUND or infer from the season calendar