thesis-tracker

name	thesis-tracker
description	Track an investment thesis across time, news flow, and market updates; classify it as strengthened, weakened, unchanged, or falsified.
metadata	{"marketbot":{"emoji":"🧠","triggers":["thesis tracker","track thesis","signal journal","view tracking","观点跟踪","逻辑跟踪"," thesis update","strengthened or weakened"],"output":"thesis-tracker-report","risk":"medium","freshness":"event-live","tools":["thesis_tracker","market_news","market_snapshot","intel_search"],"required_tools":["thesis_tracker"],"markets":["a-share","hong-kong","us","global","mixed"],"asset_classes":["equity","etf","commodity","crypto","macro"],"task_type":"thesis-tracking","determinism":"tool-backed","priority":92}}

Thesis Tracker

Use this skill to persist an investment thesis, revisit it later, and judge whether new evidence strengthens, weakens, leaves unchanged, or falsifies the original view.

When to use

• The user wants to track a thesis over days or weeks instead of getting a one-off report.
• A catalyst, earnings event, or macro shock needs to be judged against a previously stated view.
• market-report, stock-watch, or catalyst-tracker surfaces a view that should become a durable research object.

Workflow

1. Create the thesis with thesis_tracker(action="create", ...).
2. When updating, gather fresh evidence with:
   • market_news
   • market_snapshot
   • intel_search for prior workspace intel
3. Update the thesis with thesis_tracker(action="update", thesisId=..., evidence=..., note=...).
4. Use the returned verdict and confidence shift to explain whether the thesis is:
   • strengthened
   • weakened
   • unchanged
   • falsified

Output format

# Thesis Tracker: <SYMBOL>

## Current Thesis
- Thesis:
- Status:
- Confidence:

## Latest Update
- Verdict:
- Evidence summary:
- Why the status changed:

## Next Things To Watch
- Catalyst 1
- Risk 1

Rules

• Separate the original thesis from new evidence.
• If the evidence is mixed, prefer unchanged or weakened over dramatic reclassification.
• Use falsified only when the new facts directly break the core premise.
• If evidence is thin, say confidence is low instead of forcing a strong verdict.