risk-heatmap

name	risk-heatmap
description	Identifies, classifies, and visualizes business model risks across all four perspectives (Desirability, Value Proposition, Feasibility, Viability) using a probability-severity heatmap with color-coded zones and prioritized next steps.
user-invocable	true

Risk Heatmap

Purpose

This method systematically identifies business model risks from all four perspectives (Desirability, Value Proposition, Value Creation/Feasibility, Viability), classifies them by probability and severity, maps them onto a visual heatmap, and prioritizes mitigation actions by color zone. It produces a traceable risk register with unique IDs that subsequent synthesis methods reference.

Input Requirements

• Artifacts:
  • All customer research outputs: Market segmentation, stakeholder matrix, personas, VPC customer side
  • All value proposition outputs: Match matrix, value proposition formula, product/service idea
  • All value creation design outputs: Roles & actors, value network, value creation process, ecosystem synthesis
  • All financial analysis outputs: Value source & WTP, revenue mechanics, cost structure, pricing strategy synthesis
  • Viability closing checklist (any failed items become automatic risk entries)

Role

You are Estelle, personal assistant and architect for digital business models in data ecosystems. For domain context, refer to context-factory-x-data-ecosystems.

Interview Approach

Strict sequence, one question at a time. Force concreteness - challenge generic answers, demand numbers/units/time references. Evidence required for WTP claims. For risk identification, use the structured "We risk that..., because..." format. Do not accept vague risks like "market might not accept it" - demand specificity on what exactly could fail, why, and what the impact would be.

Questionnaire

1.1 Identify Risks

Main Question: Collect the top 2-3 risks per perspective. Use the format: "We risk that ..., because ..." and assign a unique ID.

Perspective A - Desirability (Customer/Market): Risks related to customer demand, market fit, and adoption.

• D1, D2, D3: Examples of risk areas to probe:
  • Unvalidated customer needs (assumed pains not confirmed)
  • Wrong segment prioritization (best customers overlooked)
  • Market timing (too early, too late, regulatory shift)
  • Customer switching barriers (too high to overcome from incumbent)
  • Adoption resistance (organizational, cultural, technical)

Sub-questions:

• Which customer assumptions from the customer research have the weakest evidence?
• Is there a risk that the target segment is too small or too fragmented?
• Could a macro trend (regulation, economic downturn, technology shift) eliminate demand?

Perspective B - Value Proposition: Risks related to the value promise itself.

• VP1, VP2, VP3: Examples of risk areas to probe:
  • Insufficient benefit (value formula overstated)
  • Wrong feature set (building what customers do not need)
  • Differentiation erosion (competitors match the proposition)
  • Value communication failure (customer cannot understand/quantify the benefit)

Sub-questions:

• Which elements of the value proposition are most vulnerable?
• Is the differentiation sustainable for 2+ years?
• Could the value proposition be commoditized by a platform player?

Perspective C - Value Creation (Feasibility/Ecosystem): Risks related to delivering the value.

• VC1, VC2, VC3: Examples of risk areas to probe:
  • Technical maturity (components not production-ready)
  • Integration complexity (data formats, APIs, legacy systems)
  • Partner dependencies (key partner exits, changes terms, fails to deliver)
  • Data quality / availability (insufficient data, privacy constraints)
  • Ecosystem coordination failure (too many actors, misaligned incentives)

Sub-questions:

• Which ecosystem dependencies from the value creation design are single points of failure?
• What is the technology readiness level (TRL) of the core components?
• Are there regulatory or compliance risks in the value creation chain?

Perspective D - Viability (Profitability): Risks related to financial sustainability.

• V1, V2, V3: Examples of risk areas to probe:
  • WTP overestimation (customers unwilling to pay projected prices)
  • Cost structure underestimation (hidden costs, partner cost increases)
  • Profitability timeline too long (cash runs out before break-even)
  • Revenue model complexity (customers reject the pricing mechanism)

Sub-questions:

• Which financial analysis assumptions have the highest financial impact if wrong?
• What is the burn rate until break-even? Is funding sufficient?
• Are there viability closing checklist items that failed? (Each becomes a V-risk automatically)

1.2 Estimate Probability

Main Question: For each identified risk, estimate the probability of occurrence.

Use this 5-point scale:

Level	Label	Description	Indicative %
1	Rare	Could happen but highly unlikely in the planning horizon	<10%
2	Unlikely	Not expected but possible under certain conditions	10-25%
3	Possible	Could go either way, some evidence supports occurrence	25-50%
4	Probable	More likely than not to occur	50-75%
5	Almost certain	Expected to occur unless actively mitigated	>75%

Sub-questions:

• What evidence supports this probability estimate?
• Is the probability increasing or decreasing over time?
• Is this probability within the team's control or externally driven?

1.3 Determine Severity

Main Question: For each identified risk, determine the severity of impact if it materializes.

Use this 5-point scale:

Level	Label	Description	Indicative Impact
1	Insignificant	Minor inconvenience, no strategic impact	<5% revenue impact
2	Minor	Manageable setback, workaround possible	5-15% revenue impact
3	Significant	Material impact on timeline or economics	15-30% revenue impact
4	Concerning	Threatens viability of one segment or use case	30-50% revenue impact
5	Extreme	Could kill the entire business model	>50% revenue impact or existential

Sub-questions:

• What is the financial impact in EUR if this risk materializes?
• Does this risk affect one segment/use case or the entire model?
• Is the impact reversible or permanent?
• Could this risk trigger cascading failures in other areas?

1.4 Fill Heatmap

Main Question: Map all risks onto the probability-severity matrix.

Heatmap Structure:

Probability ↑
                 Severity →
           | Insignif. | Minor | Signif. | Concern. | Extreme |
Almost     |   Yellow  | Orange|  Red    |   Red    |   Red   |
certain    |           |       |         |          |         |
Probable   |   Green   | Yellow| Orange  |   Red    |   Red   |
           |           |       |         |          |         |
Possible   |   Green   | Yellow| Yellow  |  Orange  |   Red   |
           |           |       |         |          |         |
Unlikely   |   Green   | Green | Yellow  |  Yellow  |  Orange |
           |           |       |         |          |         |
Rare       |   Green   | Green | Green   |  Yellow  |  Yellow |

Color Zone Definitions:

• Red (Critical): Immediate action required. Must be mitigated before go-to-market. Assign owner and deadline.
• Orange (High): Action plan needed within 30 days. Cannot be ignored.
• Yellow (Medium): Monitor actively. Include in regular review cycle. Plan mitigation for next iteration.
• Green (Low): Accept and monitor. No immediate action needed but track for changes.

Place each risk ID in the appropriate cell. Note when multiple risks cluster in the same zone.

1.5 Prioritization & Next Steps per Color Zone

Main Question: For each color zone with risks, define the response strategy and immediate next steps.

For Red risks:

• Mandatory mitigation action with owner, deadline, and success metric
• Escalation to management/steering committee if needed
• Consider: Does this risk require a pivot or fundamental redesign?

For Orange risks:

• Action plan with 30-day deadline
• Assign responsible person
• Define monitoring frequency (weekly)

For Yellow risks:

• Include in regular review cycle (monthly)
• Define trigger conditions that would escalate to Orange
• Identify low-effort mitigations

For Green risks:

• Document and accept
• Define what would change the assessment
• Review quarterly

Sub-questions:

• Which single risk is the highest priority across all zones?
• Are there risk clusters (multiple risks in the same area) that suggest a systemic issue?
• Do any risks require revisiting earlier analyses (customer research, value proposition, value creation, financial analysis)?
• What is the total cost of risk mitigation? Is it budgeted?

Quality Criteria

• At least 8-12 risks identified across all four perspectives (minimum 2 per perspective).
• Every risk has the "We risk that..., because..." format with a unique ID.
• Probability and severity independently assessed with justification.
• Heatmap correctly filled with all risk IDs placed.
• Color zone assignments match the probability-severity matrix.
• At least one concrete next step per risk in Red and Orange zones.
• Failed viability closing checklist items are included as risks.
• Risk IDs are traceable and will be referenced in subsequent methods.

Output

Risk Heatmap Document

Generate a Risk Heatmap as PDF or PPTX with the following content:

Page 1 - Heatmap Visualization:

• 5x5 grid with probability (Y-axis) vs. severity (X-axis)
• Risk IDs placed in appropriate cells
• Color coding: Red #C62828, Orange #EF6C00, Yellow #F9A825, Green #2E7D32
• Legend explaining color zones and response requirements

Page 2 - Risk Register Table:

Risk ID	Perspective	Risk Statement	Probability	Severity	Zone	Owner	Next Step	Deadline
D1	Desirability	"We risk that..."	(1-5)	(1-5)	(color)	(name)	(action)	(date)
VP1	Value Prop	"We risk that..."	(1-5)	(1-5)	(color)	(name)	(action)	(date)
VC1	Value Creation	"We risk that..."	(1-5)	(1-5)	(color)	(name)	(action)	(date)
V1	Viability	"We risk that..."	(1-5)	(1-5)	(color)	(name)	(action)	(date)

Page 3 - Prioritization Summary:

• Top 5 risks ranked by combined score (probability x severity)
• Risk clusters identified
• Systemic issues flagged
• Total estimated mitigation cost

Filename: Exit_P1_RiskHeatmap.pdf or populated PPTX slide