compose-prediction-market-setup

name

compose-prediction-market-setup

description

Configure and deploy this Compose prediction-market example under the user's own Goldsky account. A cron orchestrator (default every 5 minutes on Base Sepolia) launches a fresh BTC UP/DOWN prediction market on the Gnosis ConditionalTokens (CTF) contract each cycle, resolves the previous cycle's market, and acts as the market oracle. Walks a new user through CLI install, choosing chain + asset + market duration, finding the correct CTF address on their chosen chain, optionally swapping the price source, optional GitHub publishing, and a BaseScan-style smoke test. No contracts to deploy, no private keys, no funding — gas is sponsored. Use when a user has just cloned this example or asks to set up / deploy / configure the prediction-market app.

Setup: Compose prediction-market

This skill makes the cloned prediction-market example runnable under the user's own Goldsky account. A cron orchestrator fires every 5 minutes, calls a helper task to fetch BTC/USD from CoinGecko, resolves any overdue markets by reporting payouts on the Gnosis ConditionalTokens (CTF) contract, and prepares a fresh market for the current 5-minute bucket. The Compose-managed wallet is the sole oracle for every market it launches.

This is the lowest-setup-cost example in the repo: no contracts to deploy, no secrets, no funding. Most of the work is editing constants.

Non-negotiables

• Never run goldsky compose deploy, git push, or gh repo create without showing the exact command first and getting explicit confirmation.
• SALT in src/lib/constants.ts is a domain separator mixed into every question ID. If the user changes it after markets are live, all existing markets become orphaned on-chain (different conditionId, unreachable by the orchestrator). Only change SALT during initial setup, never afterward.
• The oracle wallet is determined at first deploy. The conditionId of every market is deterministically derived from (oracle, questionId, 2). If the oracle wallet changes (e.g. user renames ORACLE_WALLET_NAME in src/lib/constants.ts), every prior market is orphaned. Pick the name once.
• CTF_ADDRESS in src/lib/constants.ts is chain-specific. The Gnosis CTF is deployed at different addresses on different chains. Using the Base Sepolia address on Polygon will silently produce transactions that revert or hit an EOA. Always verify the address for the user's target chain.
• ASSET_PAIR and PRICE_URL (both in src/lib/constants.ts) are coupled. If the user wants ETH/USD instead of BTC/USD, they must update both constants and the response parser inside main() of src/tasks/market-data.ts (currently reads response.bitcoin.usd — needs to change to response.ethereum.usd, and the corresponding TypeScript type on the context.fetch<...>(...) call).

Variable handling for agents

When this skill says $FOO, capture the literal value from the prior command's output and substitute it directly into the next command. Do not rely on shell variables persisting between separate Bash tool invocations — each invocation gets a fresh shell with no env carryover from earlier commands.

Preflight

1. goldsky CLI — goldsky --version.
2. goldsky authenticated — goldsky project list. If it errors, stop and tell the user: "Please run goldsky login in your terminal — browser flow. Tell me to continue when you see the success message." Do not spawn goldsky login from Bash; it requires an interactive browser.
3. deno — deno --version.

That's it. No Foundry, no npm, no Solana tooling.

Step 1 — Configuration interview

1. "App name?" (default: prediction-market) → top-level name: field in compose.yaml.
2. "Which chain?" (default: baseSepolia) → the CHAIN const in src/lib/constants.ts. The Gnosis CTF is deployed on most major chains; common options include baseSepolia, base, polygon, ethereum. The user must give you the CTF contract address for their chosen chain; defaults are only known for Base Sepolia.
3. "Which asset pair?" (default: BTC_USD) — any asset CoinGecko supports. If the user picks something else (e.g. ETH_USD, SOL_USD), you'll update three places in Step 3.
4. "Market duration?" (default: 5 minutes, DURATION_SEC = 300) — longer durations produce fewer, larger markets. The cron cadence (the expression: under the orchestrator task in compose.yaml) and DURATION_SEC should usually match; if the user wants hourly markets, change both.
5. "Domain salt?" (default: "GOLDSKY_COMPOSE_DEMO") — only needs to be changed if they want a fresh namespace (e.g. running multiple instances in the same Goldsky project). Once chosen, do not change.
6. "Publish to a new GitHub repo?" — optional.

Step 2 — Determine the CTF contract address for the chosen chain

If the user picked baseSepolia, the default CTF_ADDRESS in src/lib/constants.ts is correct: 0xb04639fB29CC8D27e13727c249EbcAb0CDA92331.

Otherwise, the user must provide the Gnosis ConditionalTokens address for their chain. Canonical sources:

• Gnosis Conditional Tokens docs: https://docs.gnosis.io/conditionaltokens/docs/ethereum/
• Polymarket uses 0x4D97DCd97eC945f40cF65F87097ACe5EA0476045 on Polygon (mainnet).
• Base mainnet, Ethereum mainnet, etc. — look up the deployment on the relevant block explorer.

Call the address $CTF.

Step 3 — Edit constants

In src/lib/constants.ts — use grep anchors, locate each export const X = ... and replace the value:

• CHAIN → "<camelCase chain>" as const
• CTF_ADDRESS → "$CTF" (typed Address)
• ORACLE_WALLET_NAME → "<stable name>" — only change if the user wants a custom name. Once deployed, do not rename.
• ASSET_PAIR → "<e.g. ETH_USD>" as const (only if asset changed)
• DURATION_SEC → <N> (only if duration changed; DURATION_MS is derived and updates automatically)
• SALT → "<unique string>" (only if user wants a custom namespace)
• PRICE_URL → "<CoinGecko URL for chosen asset>" (only if asset changed)

If ASSET_PAIR changed, also edit src/tasks/market-data.ts — find the const priceUsd = response?.bitcoin?.usd; line inside main() and change bitcoin to the CoinGecko id matching the new asset. Example for ETH:

const priceUsd = response?.ethereum?.usd;

Update the TypeScript type on the context.fetch<...>(...) call directly above to match ({ ethereum?: { usd?: number } }).

If market duration changed, also edit the cron expression: under the orchestrator task in compose.yaml — the cadence should match DURATION_SEC. Compose uses 6-field cron with seconds (sec min hr day mon dow), not the standard 5-field format. For 5-min markets: "10 */5 * * * *" (10s offset into each 5-min boundary). For hourly markets: "0 0 * * * *" (offset 0s, minute 0, every hour). Do not use 5-field cron expressions here — they will fail to parse.

Step 4 — Optional: publish to a new GitHub repo

git init
git add .
git ls-files --cached | grep -iE '(keypair\.json|\.env|private[._-]?key|\.pem|id_rsa)' && \
  { echo "ABORT: secret-shaped file staged"; exit 1; }
git commit -m "Initial commit: Compose prediction-market"
gh repo create <user's repo name> --<public|private> --source=. --push

Step 5 — Deploy to Goldsky

goldsky compose deploy

Gas is sponsored by default (context.evm.wallet({ name: ORACLE_WALLET_NAME }) without explicit gas config uses Goldsky's sponsor) — the oracle wallet needs no funding.

Step 6 — Smoke test

Get the oracle wallet address:

goldsky compose wallet create <ORACLE_WALLET_NAME from constants.ts>

Substitute the value the user chose for ORACLE_WALLET_NAME (default: prediction-market-oracle). The command prints the address — save as $ORACLE. If the wallet already exists (e.g. from the deploy having run one cycle), it prints the existing address.

Tail logs and wait for the next cron fire. Cron is 10 */5 * * * * — fires at :10, :15, :20, etc. of each hour (with a 10-second offset from the boundary to let CoinGecko settle).

goldsky compose logs

Good output on first run:

cycle complete: price=<BTC/USD> resolved=0/0 launched=true resolveErrors=0 launchError=false

On the second and subsequent cycles, resolved should start showing 1/1 as the previous market becomes overdue.

Verify on the explorer. For Base Sepolia:

https://sepolia.basescan.org/address/$CTF#events

Filter events to the oracle address ($ORACLE) — topic[2] of ConditionPreparation and ConditionResolution. Each cron cycle should produce one ConditionPreparation (launch) and, after the first cycle, one ConditionResolution (resolve).

Troubleshooting

• Edits to compose.yaml or source files don't take effect after redeploy. The local .compose/ bundle cache is stale. Run rm -rf .compose/ and redeploy.
• cycle complete never logs. Check that the deploy succeeded and the cron trigger is active: goldsky compose status.
• Unexpected CoinGecko response shape. The asset field in the response doesn't match. Re-check the response?.<asset>?.usd access in src/tasks/market-data.ts and ensure the field matches the asset in PRICE_URL (e.g. ids=ethereum → response.ethereum.usd).
• resolveErrors=1 or higher. Check goldsky compose logs for the underlying error. Two benign cases (the code catches them): "condition already prepared" and "payout denominator already set" — both mean a retry hit a tx that landed but the client didn't know yet. Errors other than those are real problems.
• No events on the explorer. Verify CTF_ADDRESS points at the real Gnosis CTF on the chosen chain. An EOA or unrelated contract at the address will produce no events even though the tx succeeds.

What you should NOT do

• Do not rename ORACLE_WALLET_NAME after deploying. Every prior market's conditionId is bound to the old wallet.
• Do not change SALT after deploying. Same orphaning problem.
• Do not change the hardcoded outcome count "2" in the prepareCondition(...) call inside src/tasks/launch-market.ts to add more outcomes without also updating the payout logic in resolve-market.ts and the Outcome type. Out of scope for setup.
• Do not remove the catch block for "condition already prepared" / "payout denominator already set" in launch-market.ts or resolve-market.ts. These are idempotency guards that keep retries safe.
• Do not fund the oracle wallet — it's a gas-sponsored managed wallet. Sending ETH or tokens to it is just lost money; the orchestrator doesn't read balances.