| name | resolution-watch |
| description | monitor polymarket markets that are close to resolution or likely to be resolved soon. use when the user wants official-source checking, resolution readiness, ambiguity flags, or a scheduled workflow for near-resolution markets. |
resolution watch
Use this skill to answer one question:
which markets are approaching resolution in a way that creates operational or settlement risk right now?
This skill is the near-resolution monitoring layer:
- downstream of watchlists, open positions, and open orders
- parallel to
portfolio-risk-review
- upstream of
order-ticket when the user needs a concrete cancel or reduction plan
It should focus on settlement readiness and ambiguity, not thesis generation.
default mode
- Default to resolution mode.
- In resolution mode, optimize for official-source checking, wording traps, timing risk, and posture recommendations.
- Do not drift into fresh fair-value work unless the user explicitly changes the task.
what this skill is for
Use this skill when the user is effectively asking:
- which markets are close to resolution?
- what official evidence is likely to matter?
- where could settlement get messy?
- which positions or resting orders need attention before resolution?
Use this skill for:
- near-resolution watchlists
- resolution-readiness checks
- operational monitoring around deadlines, results, releases, or official calls
- identifying markets where ambiguity creates disproportionate risk
Do not use this skill to:
- do broad market discovery
- build a fresh trade thesis
- submit or cancel orders without explicit instruction
- treat headline certainty as resolution certainty
minimum viable input checklist
Do not finalize a resolution watch until you have, or explicitly mark as missing:
- one market or a defined near-resolution set
- current resolution text
- the most likely official or primary source that will matter
- one timing anchor
- one ambiguity or edge-case check
When available, also pull:
- positions or open orders tied to the market
- comments when they reveal real wording disputes or rule confusion
outside-in frame
Before reporting, inspect the market from these lenses:
- rules lens: what does the actual resolution language require?
- source lens: what official source is likely to decide the outcome?
- timing lens: when should evidence arrive, and how much lag risk exists?
- ambiguity lens: what wording trap or procedural edge case could break consensus?
- workflow lens: is the user best served by watch, risk review, or direct order adjustment?
dependency and handoff rules
Use the minimum live set needed:
get_market_snapshot- comments when ambiguity may be reflected there
get_positions or get_open_orders when the user has live exposure
If the main missing piece is:
- exposure clustering across the whole book ->
portfolio-risk-review
- current-state read on one market ->
market-memo
- deeper evidence on the underlying event ->
deep-market-research
- exact cancel or reduction mechanics ->
order-ticket
main workflow
1. Normalize the assignment
Write a 1-2 line intent statement for yourself covering:
- which near-resolution markets are in scope
- whether the goal is monitoring, exposure control, or official-source readiness
2. Refresh the live setup
Confirm:
- current market snapshot
- resolution text
- timing or deadline context
- whether the user has live positions or resting orders at risk
3. Identify the likely decision evidence
Name:
- the expected official source
- the likely timing of that source
- what would count as decisive versus inconclusive evidence
4. Map ambiguity and operational risk
At minimum, check for:
- wording traps
- timing uncertainty
- conflicting official or quasi-official sources
- stale orders that may remain live into messy resolution windows
5. Recommend posture, not execution
Choose the appropriate posture:
- wait
- monitor closely
- reduce risk
- prepare to cancel stale orders
Do not execute anything unless explicitly asked.
hard rules
- Do not assume resolution rules from headlines or common sense alone.
- Do not place or cancel orders in this skill without explicit instruction.
- Do not overstate certainty when the official source path is still unclear.
- Do not ignore open orders when near-resolution ambiguity is high.
- Do not turn this into a general market memo.
output contract
Return exactly these sections in this order.
resolution watch
watch intent
State in 1-2 sentences:
- what near-resolution set was reviewed
- what risk the watch is focused on
markets to watch
Use one flat bullet block per market:
- market name
- why it is close to resolution
- why it deserves attention now
likely resolution evidence
For each market, state:
- best official or primary source
- expected timing
- what would likely count as decisive evidence
ambiguity and risk
List:
- wording traps
- timing uncertainty
- source conflict risk
- exposure or stale-order risk if relevant
recommended posture
Choose for each market:
- wait
- monitor
- reduce risk
- prepare to cancel stale orders
Explain why.
next handoff
Choose one:
- remain in
resolution-watch
- hand off to
portfolio-risk-review
- hand off to
market-memo
- hand off to
deep-market-research
- hand off to
order-ticket
Explain why that is the cheapest useful next step.
completion criteria
The watch is complete only when:
- resolution wording has been checked
- an official-source path is identified
- ambiguity is explicit
- timing risk is explicit
- any live exposure risk is noted
- no live order action is taken
common failure modes
- treating press coverage as enough to settle the market
- skipping the actual resolution text
- failing to identify the official source path
- ignoring stale orders near messy resolution windows
- drifting into thesis generation instead of operational watchfulness
activation tests
Should trigger
- "which of these markets are close to resolution?"
- "what official evidence will matter for settlement?"
- "watch this market until it is ready to resolve."
- "are there wording traps or ambiguity here?"
- "do any of my positions need attention before resolution?"
Should not trigger
- "rank these new markets for research."
- "what is fair value here?"
- "write a market memo."
- "submit an order."
- "review my entire portfolio."
resource map
portfolio-risk-review — use when the main problem is exposure management across the bookmarket-memo — use when one name needs a compact live-state read beyond settlement mechanicsdeep-market-research — use when the key issue is underlying-event evidence rather than resolution readinessorder-ticket — use when the user explicitly wants a cancel or reduction plan
