forecast-cash-flow

name	forecast-cash-flow
category	money
description	Build a short-term cash-flow forecast from real balances, dated inflows, obligations, and uncertainty, then test conservative scenarios and define review triggers. Use when a person or small business asks whether cash will cover upcoming expenses, needs a runway view, or must plan around irregular income.

forecast-cash-flow

Make timing visible. A cash forecast is not a profit statement and not a promise; it is a dated view of money expected to enter and leave, with assumptions explicit enough to revise.

Inputs

• Choose the person or business, accounts in scope, forecast horizon, currency, and review cadence.
• Gather current cleared balances, receivables, bills, payroll, debt, taxes, subscriptions, and known one-offs.
• Identify who may view the forecast and keep financial records in a private file they control.

Procedure

1. Reconcile the opening cash balance to current account records. Exclude credit limits from cash.
2. List inflows by expected receipt date, amount, source, confidence, and evidence. Distinguish contracted, probable, tentative, and hoped-for money.
3. List outflows by due date, amount, obligation, flexibility, owner, and consequence of delay.
4. Separate fixed, variable, discretionary, tax, debt, and one-time items so response options remain visible.
5. Build a weekly forecast: opening cash plus inflows minus outflows equals closing cash. Carry closing cash into the next period.
6. Create base, conservative, and stress scenarios by changing dates and amounts for uncertain items. Preserve the same obligations across scenarios.
7. Mark the minimum cash point, weeks below the chosen reserve, and the earliest date a shortfall appears.