leaps-screen

name

leaps-screen

description

LEAPS (long-dated equity options, 1-3 years out) selection framework. Filters strikes by IV, open interest, breakeven, leverage. Computes payoff at multiple price scenarios. Compares 2027/1 vs 2028/1 expiries. Recommends 2-3 strikes with position sizing and stock-vs-LEAPS comparison. Triggers in English ("LEAPS for X", "what call should I buy on X", "stock or LEAPS for X", "long-term options on X") or Chinese ("X 买什么 LEAPS", "X 的长期 call", "X 现货还是期权", "X 2027 call 推荐").

LEAPS Screen — Long-Dated Options Selection

🔍 Pre-flight checklist — LEAPS amplify everything, including mistakes

LEAPS give 5-10x leverage. Every methodology layer matters 5-10x more. Required checks before recommending a strike:

1. Macro regime is non-negotiable — trigger macro-warning. LEAPS in 🔴 RED regime is a wealth-destruction trade. RED → only suggest LEAPS on deep-value names at 200DMA, never momentum names. YELLOW → cap LEAPS allocation at 3% of book. GREEN → full plan.
2. Insider strict on the underlying — $(ls ~/.claude/{skills,plugins/claude-investment-skills}/review-investment-screenshot/scripts/insider_ratio.py 2>/dev/null | head -1) TICKER --window 90. If C-suite is distributing while user is considering a 2-year LEAPS, that's a hard NO. Form 4 code "P" only — RSU grants look bullish in headlines but aren't open-market buys.
3. 3-tier entry on the UNDERLYING, mapped to LEAPS strikes — Don't recommend "Buy Jan 2027 $1100 call at market". Map: at $current → which strike? at -20% drawdown → which deeper-ITM strike? at 200DMA → which strike? User gets 3 strikes mapped to 3 underlying levels.
4. Sizing 3-5% MAX per LEAPS — and that's only if confidence ≥ 8/10. LEAPS can go to $0; size accordingly.
5. Tax-aware exit — LEAPS held > 1 year = LTCG. If user wants to exit within 12 months, mention STCG hit and quantify it. May be worth holding 30 more days.
6. IV check — If IV > 80% annualized, premium is too rich. Recommend waiting or smaller size, not just "the strike."

"Look carefully" rule: the most expensive LEAPS mistake is buying ATM/slightly-OTM on a momentum name at 52w high in YELLOW/RED regime. Theta + IV crush + first 10% drawdown wipes 60% of premium in weeks. ALWAYS check: where's the stock vs 200DMA + what's the macro regime + has insider been selling 90d?

See README's Hard Rules for the full anti-pattern list.

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What is a LEAPS?

LEAPS = Long-term Equity AnticiPation Securities. Options with >1 year to expiry. Used for:

• Leveraged long bets (5-10x leverage on capital)
• Lower capital requirement vs stock
• Defined max loss (premium paid)
• Tax efficiency (LTCG if held >1 year)

When LEAPS > Stock

Situation	Why LEAPS wins
High conviction + want leverage	5-10x exposure with same capital
Limited capital, big idea	$5K LEAPS = $50K stock equivalent
Hedge alternative (sell stock + buy call)	Locks profit, keeps upside
Want defined max loss	Stock can go to $0; LEAPS just costs premium
Tax: short-term holder, long-term thesis	Hold LEAPS >1 year for LTCG

When Stock > LEAPS

Situation	Why stock wins
Dividend payer (NOK, ORCL, BABA)	LEAPS don't get dividends
Uncertain timeline	LEAPS expire; stock doesn't
IV very high (>80%)	Premium too expensive, theta heavy
Buying for income	Need stock for covered calls/puts
Already maxed delta exposure	Adding LEAPS = double-down on same bet

The 5-Step LEAPS Selection Process

Step 1 — Get available expiries

mcp__yfmcp__yfinance_get_option_dates(symbol="NVDA")

Filter to LEAPS (>1 year out). Typically:

• 2027/1/15
• 2027/3/19
• 2027/6/17
• 2027/9/17
• 2027/12/17
• 2028/1/21 (most popular)
• 2028/6/16
• 2028/12/15

Step 2 — Pull option chains for top 2-3 expiries

mcp__yfmcp__yfinance_get_option_chain(symbol="NVDA", expiration_date="2027-01-15", option_type="calls")

Step 3 — Filter strikes

Hard filters:

• OI > 1000 (liquidity, must be able to exit)
• IV < 80% (not too pricey, but >40% for leverage)
• Strike from ATM to +30% OTM

Goldilocks zone:

• ATM strike: 0.50 delta, 50% leverage, breakeven需 +X% (depends on time to expiry)
• +10% OTM: 0.40 delta, more leverage, harder to win
• +20% OTM: 0.30 delta, 4-5x leverage, needs big move

Step 4 — Calculate R/R for each candidate

For each strike, compute:

Metric	Formula	Notes
Premium	(bid + ask) / 2	Mid price
Cost per contract	premium × 100	$ paid for 100 shares exposure
Breakeven	strike + premium	Stock must hit this to profit
Breakeven % gain	(breakeven - current) / current × 100	How much stock needs to move
2x scenario	strike + 2 × premium	Where stock = doubled premium
3x scenario	strike + 3 × premium	Where stock = tripled
Max loss	premium × 100	Total paid (if expires worthless)
Max loss %	100%	Premium goes to 0 if OTM at expiry

Step 5 — Recommend 2-3 strikes with sizing

Allocation rule of thumb:

• LEAPS = 0.5-2% of total portfolio per single position
• More than that = excessive concentration / risk
• Multiple LEAPS on same underlying: combine within 2-3% cap

Tiered sizing (NVDA example):

Strike	Type	Cost	Allocation	Why
ATM ($200)	Conservative	$35	1%	Highest delta, lowest leverage
+10% OTM ($220)	Balanced	$25	0.7%	Best R/R at typical 1Y move
+20% OTM ($240)	Aggressive	$18	0.3%	Bull case lottery

Output format

# [TICKER] LEAPS Screen — [Date]
**Current price**: $XXX | **Thesis**: [user's thesis or "general bullish"]

## Available LEAPS Expiries
- 2027/1/15 ([X] months out)
- 2028/1/21 ([Y] months out)

## Recommended: [Strike] [Expiry]

### Why this one
[2-3 bullet points: liquidity, R/R, IV reasonable]

### Specifics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Strike | $X |
| Expiry | YYYY-MM-DD |
| Mid premium | $X.XX |
| OI | X,XXX |
| IV | X.X% |
| Delta (est) | 0.X |
| Cost per contract | $X,XXX |
| Breakeven | $XXX (+X.X%) |
| 2x premium scenario | Stock @ $YYY (+Y.Y%) |
| 3x premium scenario | Stock @ $ZZZ (+Z.Z%) |

### Position sizing
- Suggested: X contracts = $Y,YYY total cost
- Portfolio %: Z.Z%
- Stop loss: 50% of premium ($X) or stock breaks 200DMA

### P&L Scenarios at expiry
| Stock @ Expiry | Intrinsic | P&L | % Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current ($XXX) | $0 | -$X (premium) | -100% |
| +10% | $X | -$Y | -X% |
| +20% | $X | +$Y | +X% |
| +50% | $X | +$Y | +X% |
| Bull target | $X | +$Y | +X% |

## Alternatives Considered (NOT recommended)
| Strike | Why NOT |
| $X | OI too low / IV too high / breakeven too far |

## Compared to Stock
- Stock $XXX: 1x leverage, no time decay, gets dividends
- LEAPS $X strike: ~Yx leverage, 12mo expiry, no dividend
- **Recommendation**: [LEAPS / mix / stock] because [reason]

## Risks
- IV crush after [event] could lose 20-30% even if stock unchanged
- If stock chops sideways, LEAPS lose to theta
- 12/18/2026 LEAPS in 2026 危险窗口 (yen carry / 1973)

## Tax considerations
- If held >1 year: LTCG (15-20%)
- If held <1 year: STCG (32-37%)
- Specific lot ID matters at exit

Hard rules

1. OI < 1000 = skip. Liquidity > leverage.
2. IV > 80% = warn user. "贵了，等回调或换 expiry"
3. Position size cap. Per LEAPS = max 2% portfolio. Total LEAPS = max 10% portfolio.
4. Always show breakeven %. If breakeven needs +25%, that's not a "small" move.
5. ATM vs OTM decision. ATM = safer. OTM = more leverage but lower probability.
6. Don't recommend 12/18 LEAPS in 2026. User's portfolio审计显示 12/18 LEAPS 在 5-6 月 yen carry 窗口内 = 双重风险。Recommend 2027/1+ instead.
7. Show alternatives that were considered but rejected. Transparency.

Common pitfalls

Pitfall	Example	Lesson
Buying high-IV LEAPS pre-earnings	NVDA $250 call before NVDA ER, IV 90%	Pay 30% extra premium, IV crush after
Going too far OTM	NVDA $300 LEAPS when stock $200	Need +60% just to break even
Buying 6-9 month "LEAPS"	NVDA 12/18 calls bought in 5/2026	Theta heavy, not real LEAPS
Single huge LEAPS	$50K in one 2027 ATM call	Concentration = pain
Ignoring underlying tax	Buying 1/15/27 in 11/2025 = 14 months hold for LTCG	Plan exit dates

Special case: when user already owns stock

If user has 100+ shares, ask:

• "Want to add leverage with LEAPS?" → +OTM call, small size
• "Want to lock profit but stay in?" → Sell stock + buy LEAPS (synthetic long)
• "Want to hedge?" → That's earnings-prep skill, not this one

Tool cheat-sheet

Need	Tool
List expiries	mcp__yfmcp__yfinance_get_option_dates
Option chain	mcp__yfmcp__yfinance_get_option_chain
Live price	mcp__yfmcp__yfinance_get_ticker_info
Historical price for context	mcp__yfmcp__yfinance_get_price_history

Recommendation matrix (quick reference)

Conviction	IV	Time horizon	Capital	Recommendation
High	<50%	1-2 years	Limited	LEAPS ATM, full size
High	50-70%	1-2 years	Limited	LEAPS ATM, half size
High	>70%	Any	Any	Wait for IV drop, OR call spread
Med	<50%	1+ years	Any	LEAPS +10% OTM, small size
Med	50-70%	Any	Any	Stock or wait
Low	Any	Any	Any	Don't buy options, don't be in this
High	<50%	<1 year	Limited	Short-term call (not LEAPS)
High	<50%	>2 years	Any	2028 LEAPS, deep ATM

When to invoke

• User asks: "What LEAPS should I buy on X?"
• User asks: "Should I buy stock or LEAPS?"
• User asks: "What's the best 2027 call for NVDA?"
• User describes a thesis with 1-2 year horizon
• After analyze-stock recommends LEAPS as the vehicle