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Match certainty to evidence strength
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Basierend auf der SOC-Berufsklassifikation
Break a whole into parts at its natural joints
Tile the space of possible futures and evaluate strategies across the tiles. Blends part-whole decomposition with tree and graph of thought. This skill should be used when the user asks "what if", "what could happen if", "evaluate possible futures", "map the scenarios", "explore how this could play out", "compare futures", "stress-test this plan against the future", or faces a decision whose outcome hinges on unresolved uncertainties. Ends with a single reasoned recommendation plus the conditions that would flip it.
Distributed navigation system for multi-file pipelines and processes. Creates compact, grep-friendly waypoint markers that orient readers within complex cross-file workflows — each file carries its own ID, role, adjacent nodes, and a pointer to the full map. Use when asked to "point me to", "where does X begin/end", "map this pipeline", "add waypoints", "trace this process", or when working with processes spanning many files that need discoverability without centralized documentation that drifts.
Ask a genuinely good question — or a composed set of them — in the moment, to discover, clarify, probe, or confirm, in any conversation or domain. Use when about to ask the user something or use the `AskUserQuestion` tool, when a question fell flat or one won't reach and you need a set, when the user's tone or messages signal you have drifted from what they need, or when the user wants questions phrased, generated, or sharpened — "read this spec and generate questions", "ask about the schema", "review this and ask questions", "help me understand what to ask", or to clarify a requirement or idea.
Communicate ideas and information to others with purpose, clarity, and integrity. Ensure that artifacts are structured and phrased in a way that is mindful of their audience while avoiding AI slop patterns. Use when the user requests assistance with writing, commentary, or communication; when they point out AI slop, when they ask things like "help me say", "write for [a specific audience or context]", "polish [comments, sentences, artifacts]", or the like.
Visualize data, concepts, relations, or diagrams. Produces browser-runnable HTML charts and markdown outputs that drop into pull requests, READMEs, tickets, and chat. Use whenever the user asks to visualize anything, make a chart or diagram, plot a trend, compare numbers, show a flow or timeline, or pick the right chart type.
| name | thinkies-calibrate-confidence |
| description | Match certainty to evidence strength |
Follow these steps:
Target: $ARGUMENTS, else recent assertions in the current context.
State the certainty level in concrete terms, distinguishing components if it varies:
What does the confidence rest on?
Assess how much is evidence-backed versus assumption.
Definitive statements on limited data; uncertainty suppressed to sound authoritative; "obviously" / "clearly" without demonstration.
Good evidence discounted; hedging from habit rather than need; excessive qualification of well-supported claims.
What odds would you accept betting on this? What evidence would change the level? Does past track record suggest over- or underconfidence?
Express confidence in proportion to evidence. Distinguish personal ignorance from collective uncertainty. Show where certainty ends and speculation begins.
