cot-contrarian-detector

name

cot-contrarian-detector

description

Detect crowded speculative positioning in CFTC futures markets (COT report analysis) to find contrarian setups using Jason Shapiro's methodology. Screens large-speculator ("non-commercial") net positioning across 65 futures markets (indices, rates, FX, metals, energy, crypto) via the FMP Commitment of Traders API, computes a 3-year and 26-week COT Index per market, and classifies extremes as CROWDED_LONG / CROWDED_SHORT. Use when the user asks about COT report analysis, crowded positioning, "who is trapped", speculative positioning extremes, contrarian futures setups, or wants to run Jason Shapiro-style analysis. This skill automates crowding DETECTION only (step 1 of 5) — it does not generate trade signals by itself.

COT Contrarian Detector

Overview

Implements step 1 of Jason Shapiro's COT (Commitment of Traders) contrarian process: detect when large speculators are crowded into one side of a futures market. Crowded positioning is a precondition for a contrarian trade, not a trade signal — a market only becomes tradable once crowding is confirmed by a news failure and price-action reversal (steps 2-3), which this skill guides the user through manually.

Core thesis (Shapiro): Large speculators (hedge funds, CTAs, momentum traders) tend to be maximally positioned at trend exhaustion, not trend inception. When they are already crowded onto one side, the next big move is statistically more likely to run them over than to reward them further. Fade the speculators, not the commercials (commercials hedge for structural reasons and are not a crowd-psychology signal).

When to Use This Skill

English:

• "What markets are the speculators crowded into right now?"
• "Run a COT report analysis" / "Show me COT positioning extremes"
• "Is anyone 'trapped' in gold / the dollar / bonds right now?"
• User wants to find contrarian futures setups
• User asks for a Jason Shapiro-style COT screen

Japanese: