stock-compare

name	stock-compare
description	Run a head-to-head comparison between two tickers (A vs B) for a growth, income, or value investor over a stated horizon. Use when the user asks "X vs Y", "which is better A or B?", "should I pick X or Y?", or wants a side-by-side fundamentals + technicals + valuation matchup.

Stock Compare (Head-to-Head)

Stage 0 - Decision Memory (load BEFORE forming any verdict)

Before fetching market data, load prior decisions on each ticker (A and B) so the verdict stays consistent across sessions:

• mcp__aifolimizer__get_ticker_decision_history with ticker=A then ticker=B (max_decisions=5) - prior actions, outcomes, reflections
• mcp__aifolimizer__get_ticker_reflection with symbol=A / symbol=B (n=3) - prior recs + realized alpha
• mcp__aifolimizer__get_cross_ticker_lessons with max_lessons=3 - portfolio-level win/loss patterns

Reconciliation rule: if a prior decision exists and your new read flips it, state explicitly WHY it changed (new data / catalyst / price move). Never silently contradict a logged decision - that drift is exactly what this prevents.

How to run

1. Call mcp__aifolimizer__get_profile - account types, capital, tax context. Frame placement recommendation at end (TFSA vs RRSP vs Non-Reg)
2. Identify two tickers from user query (Ticker A, Ticker B). If user names only one and asks "vs sector leader", pick obvious peer and state choice explicitly
3. Call mcp__aifolimizer__get_portfolio - flag which tickers user already holds, with current weight and cost basis
4. Call mcp__aifolimizer__get_fundamentals with symbols=[A, B] in one call - P/E, EPS, dividend yield, payout, market cap, analyst target, beta
5. Call mcp__aifolimizer__get_technicals with symbols=[A, B] in one call - SMA20/50/200, RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands, trend, Minervini stage + score, 52-week context
6. Call mcp__aifolimizer__get_news_headlines for each ticker - recent catalyst differential
7. WebSearch only for: sector peer multiples, recent analyst upgrade/downgrade asymmetry, or gaps in MCP response

Investor profile

• Canadian retail investor
• Time horizons: short-term trading + long-term (10yr+) holding
• Strategy lens: confirm with user (growth / income / value); default to growth if unstated
• Account types and capital: always read from get_profile - never hardcode

Output structure

1. Verdict (top, one paragraph)

• Winner: A or B (or "tie / context-dependent" with conditions)
• Strategy + horizon assumed (echo back what user asked for)
• One-sentence why

2. Side-by-side matrix

Render markdown table. Columns: Metric | Ticker A | Ticker B | Edge. Rows (minimum):

• Market cap
• Revenue growth (TTM YoY if available, else flag gap)
• Operating margin
• P/E (trailing) and forward P/E
• P/S
• EV/EBITDA (if available)
• Dividend yield and payout ratio
• Beta
• Analyst target (% upside vs current)
• Institutional ownership %
• 52-week position (% from high / % from low)
• Trend (Minervini stage)
• Minervini score (/7)
• RSI (overbought/neutral/oversold)
• MACD signal

3. Moat and business model

• One paragraph each - A then B
• Key differentiators
• Where they compete head-to-head, where they don't

4. Catalysts and risks (next 12 months)

• A: catalysts, then risks
• B: catalysts, then risks

5. Valuation conclusion

• Which is cheaper on absolute multiples
• Which is cheaper relative to own growth (PEG-style, even if rough)
• Sector context

6. Technical setup

• Which has better entry RIGHT NOW (or "neither - wait")
• Entry zone, stop-loss, profit target for winner
• If loser still has setup worth noting, mention as fallback

7. Recommendation (Canadian tax + holdings aware)

• Before recommending an add/initiate on the winner, call mcp__aifolimizer__get_positioning_signals with symbols=[winner]. Gate the size on crowding: score >=70 (consensus-crowded) → defer the add or favor the contrarian leg; score <=30 (contrarian) → edge supports sizing up if fundamentals agree.
• If user already holds one: hold/add/trim decision
• If user holds neither: which to initiate, sizing as % of portfolio
• Account placement: TFSA / RRSP / Non-Reg with reasoning
  • US dividend payers → RRSP (no 15% withholding)
  • High-growth no-div → TFSA (tax-free gains)
  • Canadian dividend payers → Non-Reg (dividend tax credit) or TFSA

After output - log decision

For winner ticker (and loser if user holds it), call mcp__aifolimizer__log_recommendation with action (BUY/HOLD/SELL/ADD/TRIM/PASS), conviction (HIGH/MED/LOW), target_pct + stop_pct (percent from entry; entry captured live at call time), 1-line thesis as rationale citing the head-to-head edge, skill="stock-compare". Feeds forward win-rate / track-record loop.

Rules

• Under 700 words
• Always render side-by-side matrix - verbal-only comparison not acceptable
• Cite cost basis if user holds either ticker
• For .TO suffix tickers, flag TSX coverage gaps explicitly rather than fabricating
• Never invent metrics - quote from MCP or state "MCP gap; WebSearch confirmed: "

Gotchas

• get_fundamentals cached 6h - both tickers share same staleness window, comparison internally consistent even if absolute numbers lag. Note cache timestamp.
• get_technicals cached 1h - Minervini scores and entries stale on high-volatility days. Mention if comparing during earnings week.
• Mismatched fiscal year-ends (e.g. AAPL vs MSFT) - TTM windows differ; flag when revenue growth comparison spans different quarters.
• analyst_target upside % is asymmetric noise: $5 stock with $6 target is +20% but lower-conviction than $200 stock with $220 target. Don't rank purely on % upside.
• One US ticker + one .TO ticker: yfinance fundamentals gap on TSX side will skew matrix. Use WebSearch to fill or mark "TSX gap" in cell.
• Both tickers crypto or one is crypto: get_fundamentals returns empty - use get_crypto_data for crypto leg, adjust matrix rows.
• Dividend yield across borders: 4% US yield in Non-Reg loses 15% withholding → real yield 3.4%. Apply before declaring income winner.
• Beta from yfinance uses 5-year monthly vs S&P 500 - for .TO ticker relevant benchmark is TSX, beta not strictly comparable. Note in row.