research

name	research
description	Research a specific item from docs/research-backlog.md using trusted sources defined in docs/research-methodology.md. Fetches evidence, summarizes findings with proper claim typing, updates the relevant thesis/theme doc, and marks the item resolved. Use when the user says "research B001", "work through the backlog", "resolve item B005", "look into [claim]", or similar.

/research

Research one item from [[docs/research-backlog]] and integrate the findings into the vault.

Step 1 — Identify the item

• If the user gave a backlog ID (e.g., B004), read docs/research-backlog.md and find that row.
• If the user said "highest priority" or "work through the backlog", pick the highest-priority open item that is overdue or closest to its Review By date.
• Extract from the row: Question, Thesis / Theme link, Surfaced From, Priority.
• If the item is already resolved, tell the user and stop.

Step 2 — Read context

Read these files before searching:

1. The thesis or theme doc linked in the backlog row — understand what claim this question is trying to verify or fill.
2. docs/research-methodology.md — identify the trusted sources for this domain (crypto → Glassnode/CoinGecko; AI → SemiAnalysis/EDGAR; nuclear → IAEA/WNN/Sprott; macro → FRED/BIS; etc.).

Step 3 — Search

Use mcp__tavily-mcp__tavily_search or mcp__tavily-mcp__tavily_research to find answers.

Search strategy:

• Start with the most authoritative source for the domain (per methodology doc). If the question asks for a specific report (e.g., "McKinsey data center infra"), search for that report directly.
• Aim for 2–3 independent sources that corroborate the finding before treating it as verified.
• For market size figures: note the source name, publication date, and what's included/excluded in the market definition.
• For quotes or specific claims: find the original source, not a secondary article about it.

Do not use:

• Crypto Twitter / financial social media
• Anonymous or unattributed blog posts
• AI-generated summaries without primary sources

Step 4 — Present findings

Before writing anything to disk, show the user:

1. What you found — the answer (or partial answer) with sources cited
2. Confidence level — which callout type applies:
   • [!source] — if you have a specific, citable source
   • [!analysis] — if it's your inference from multiple sources
   • [!unverified] — if you found a figure but couldn't confirm the primary source
   • [!gap] — if the question remains genuinely unanswerable
3. Proposed edit — the exact text change to the thesis doc (new callout or updated callout)
4. Whether to archive a source doc — if the source is substantive enough to save in docs/

End with: "Update the vault with these findings?"

Step 5 — Update (with user approval)

On approval, make these changes:

In the thesis/theme doc:

• Replace the existing [!unverified] or [!gap] callout with the appropriate typed callout including source citation.
• Add a dated entry to ## Updates section noting what was resolved and what it means for the thesis.
• Bump last_updated in frontmatter to today.

In docs/research-backlog.md:

• Change the item's Status from open to resolved.
• Add a brief entry to the ## Resolved table at the bottom: item number, resolution date, and a link to where the answer landed (thesis doc section or new docs/ file).
• Check off the - [ ] item in the thesis doc's ## Open Research Questions section if this item addressed it.

In decisions/log.md:

• Append an action log entry: ### [YYYY-MM-DD] action | resolved research [item] — [[strategy/thesis-xxx]]

Scan cross-reference:

• If the research item was surfaced from a scan, add [[scans/YYYY-MM-DD]] to the thesis doc's ## Updates entry so the provenance chain is traceable: scan found the clue → research resolved it.

Optionally, in docs/:

• If the source is a substantial report worth referencing again, save a summary as docs/YYYY-source-name.md with type: reference frontmatter and a [!source] callout linking to the URL.

Step 6 — Summarize

Report:

• What question was answered
• What the finding was and at what confidence level
• Which files were changed
• Whether any related open questions in the thesis doc are now unblocked

Constraints

• One item per invocation. Don't chain research items without user direction.
• Don't update conviction levels based on research alone. Surface the finding; the human decides if it changes conviction.
• Don't rewrite thesis framings. Update the specific claim; don't reorganize the thesis doc.
• Don't fill a [!gap] with a guess. If you can't find a reliable source, update the callout to [!unverified] with your best finding, or leave it as [!gap] and note in the backlog what you tried.
• Cite dates on all figures. Market sizes, valuations, and statistics are time-sensitive.