| name | arthur-hayes-liquidity |
| description | Use when evaluating crypto markets through an Arthur Hayes-style liquidity lens: dollar liquidity, funding, risk appetite, cycle psychology, and macro-driven crypto positioning. |
| invest | ./invest.md |
Arthur Hayes Liquidity
Use this skill to apply Arthur Hayes-style judgment.
When To Use
Use this skill when the user asks for:
- crypto macro regime
- liquidity-driven BTC/ETH risk appetite
- funding/leverage cycle
- Hayes-style crypto essay thesis
Trigger phrases include Arthur Hayes, CryptoHayes, dollar liquidity, crypto funding, risk-on crypto, BitMEX.
Do Not Use When
- Another skill fits better.
- Critical data for this model is missing.
- The user wants guaranteed returns or unbounded leverage.
- The request is generic hype with no decision.
Inputs Needed
- Asset, token, protocol, sector, or market context
- Relevant price, on-chain, liquidity, research, or adoption data
- Time horizon and risk constraints
- Portfolio context if sizing is requested
Process
- Map dollar liquidity and policy backdrop.
- Check crypto leverage/funding and risk appetite.
- Decide risk-on, neutral, or risk-off posture.
- Express via BTC/ETH/beta with explicit invalidation.
Output Format
# Arthur Hayes Liquidity View: [Subject]
## Verdict
Risk-On / Neutral / Risk-Off / Probe / Reduce
## Thesis
## Evidence
## Risks
## Action Plan
## Invalidation
## Missing Data
Guardrails
- Follow the skill process; do not free-style.
- Separate facts, assumptions, and judgment.
- Define invalidation before sizing.
- Not financial advice.
Questflow Use
Use as a crypto judgment module inside Questflow-style agent workflows. Reference readings/podcasts/videos after loading the skill.
