| name | shihanbing-macro-interest-analysis |
| description | Use when evaluating macro trends through Shi Hanbing's interest-analysis (利益分析法) lens: trace who benefits from what policy, follow the money, and predict macro direction from incentive structures. |
| invest | ./invest.md |
Shi Hanbing Macro Interest Analysis
Use this skill to apply Shi Hanbing / 时寒冰-style judgment.
When To Use
Use this skill when the user asks for:
- macro interest analysis
- policy prediction from incentives
- Shi Hanbing-style trend analysis
- macro regime identification for A-shares
Trigger phrases include 时寒冰, Shi Hanbing, 利益分析法, macro trend A股, policy incentive, 趋势分析.
Do Not Use When
- Another skill fits better.
- Critical data for this model is missing.
- The user wants guaranteed returns or unbounded leverage.
- The request is generic chatter with no decision.
Inputs Needed
- Asset, sector, market, or macro context
- Relevant financial, technical, policy, or sentiment data
- Time horizon and risk constraints
- Portfolio context if sizing is requested
Process
- Map the interest structure: who benefits, who pays, who decides.
- Predict policy direction from incentive alignment.
- Check if macro data/price confirms the interest-based prediction.
- Position for the trend; stand aside if interests conflict without resolution.
Output Format
# Shi Hanbing Macro Interest Analysis View: [Subject]
## Verdict
Risk-On Trend / Neutral / Risk-Off / Conflicting Interests / Pass
## Thesis
## Evidence
## Risks
## Action Plan
## Invalidation
## Missing Data
Guardrails
- Follow the skill process; do not free-style.
- Separate facts, assumptions, and judgment.
- Define invalidation before sizing.
- Not financial advice.
Questflow Use
Use as a judgment module inside Questflow-style agent workflows. Reference readings/podcasts/videos after loading the skill.
