causal-necessity-testing

name	causal-necessity-testing
description	Tactic: Extract causal claims, evaluate probability of necessity (PN) and sufficiency (PS) for each, classify into necessity-sufficiency quadrants.
type	tactic
strategies	["necessity-sufficiency","structural-counterfactual","thought-experiment"]
dependencies	{"sops":["causal-claim-extraction","load-bearing-identification","necessity-evaluation","sufficiency-evaluation"]}

Causal Necessity Testing Tactic

PNS evaluation: for each causal claim, determine whether the cause is necessary, sufficient, both, or neither.

Orchestration

1. causal-claim-extraction extracts all X→Y causal claims from the artifact
2. necessity-evaluation asks: if X had NOT occurred, would Y still hold? (PN)
3. sufficiency-evaluation asks: if X occurred in isolation, would Y follow? (PS)
4. Classify each claim into quadrant:
   • PN high + PS high → INUS condition (load-bearing)
   • PN high + PS low → necessary but not sufficient
   • PN low + PS high → sufficient but redundant
   • PN low + PS low → spurious or decorative
5. load-bearing-identification synthesizes quadrant assignments

Scoring

• PN and PS scored 0.0–1.0 (probability estimates)
• Threshold for "high": >= 0.7
• Threshold for "low": < 0.3
• Middle range (0.3–0.7): uncertain, flag for deeper investigation

Subagents Dispatched

• causal-claim-extraction (claim identification)
• necessity-evaluation (PN scoring per claim)
• sufficiency-evaluation (PS scoring per claim)
• load-bearing-identification (quadrant synthesis)

Termination Conditions

• All extracted claims evaluated within budget
• Early termination if INUS condition found and budget is S
• All claims score PN < 0.3 (no necessary factors found — conclusion may be overdetermined)

Available SOPs

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

SOP	When to use
causal-claim-extraction	Extract all causal claims (X causes Y, X leads to Y, X enables Y) from an artifact, producing a structured list of cause-effect pairs.
load-bearing-identification	Identify which factors are "load-bearing walls" — factors whose removal would collapse the conclusion.
necessity-evaluation	Evaluate the probability of necessity (PN) for a causal factor — would the conclusion fail if this factor were absent?
sufficiency-evaluation	Evaluate the probability of sufficiency (PS) for a causal factor — would this factor alone be enough to produce the conclusion?